Category: Daily Analysis

The Slide of Oil – Positive for the Economy

Leave a comment

Thought for the Day:

India has been an oil importing country for many years, and imports over 70% of the crude requirement. The ray of sunshine this year has been the fall in oil crude prices globally.

Oil prices (oil-price.net), jainmatrix investments

Oil prices (oil-price.net)

This 60% fall in import costs (see Fig above) will translate into over $70 billion ( Rs 4,55,000 crore) of forex savings this year.

  • These savings are spread across consumers (lower prices at the pump), businesses (lower fuel, raw material and transportation costs) and government (lower deficits, higher tax incomes through raised rates).
  • Domestic inflation too has fallen.
  • A fall in crude oil prices is particularly beneficial for sectors that use crude and crude derivatives as a raw material. Stocks of sectors such as paint, tyre, FMCG, airlines and lubricants will remain in focus.

There is of course a flip side to this fall. The Indian Oil and Gas industry suffers some disruptions. Within the industry, the Exploration and Production (E&P) firms are badly hurt as their production revenues were pegged to global crude prices. Some taxes and commissions for retailers based on percentage of price have fallen. 

Embed from Getty Images

But overall India gains tremendously from crude fall. These low crude prices may also continue as the outlook for crude oil prices still looks subdued. The OPEC cartel looks weak. Crude oil production is high. And big growth in renewable and green power sources like solar and wind industries may replace oil demand over time.

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE:

See other useful reports:

DO YOU FIND THIS SITE USEFUL?

  • Visit the Investment Service page to find how you can get more. Or Click LINK
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

 

PSUs are HOT investments

Leave a comment

The government sector and PSUs were, till recently, not very good investments. The reasons were many. There was an uncertainty about their future.

Now things have changed:

  • The new Central government (well not new, now about 18 months in power) has undertaken a number of structural reforms that will slowly but surely improve the economy.
  • Government departments, lead by motivated ministers, are gathering speed in terms of clearer objectives, faster decisions and accountability. Coordination issues among ministries are being sorted out.
  • There are plans emerging for PSUs disinvestment, which will accelerate this process.
  • The slogan is ‘less government, more governance’. They appear to be executing on this.

In the light of this, JainMatrix Investments has prepared a report on a mid sized PSU. Based on our research, the PSU firm has a projected 80% gain in 2 years.

This is however premium content, so we invite you to subscribe to our Investment service to receive this and other such reports.

THE INVESTMENT SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION – Click Link to get the details

 

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

See other useful reports:

 

 

Do you find this site useful?

  • Visit the Investment Service page to find how you can get more. Or Click LINK
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

 

Apple Inc. and the Happiest Moment

Leave a comment

————————————————————————————————

  • Apple Inc., USA
  • Feb 12, 2015 
  • CMP: $125
  • Global #1 Cap – Mkt Cap $ 727 billion 

Dear Investor, Almost 2 years ago, I wrote an investment note on Apple Inc. Here it is.

There’s nothing wrong with Apple Inc.

The key message was that Apple is innovative, cash rich, will reward shareholders, and even after Steve Jobs, it will do well.

Today, we have just seen the Q4/2014 results from Apple, and its been a record quarter.

See Article.

The launches of iPhone 6 and 6 plus were very successful. Apple Pay and Apple Watch are the new products that have good potential. And every analyst who tracks Apple is now positive about the stock and rates it a BUY.

So lets see. In about 2 years, the share has appreciated from $63.7 (my call was at $446, and then there was a 7 for 1 stock split) to $124.9, a gain of 96%. And now every analyst calls it a Buy?

It is at such moments that an equity analyst feels the happiest. The day when after a very good appreciation in a recommended stock, it gets rediscovered and rated highly by the community.

Cheers to such moments.

The most profitable moment is still to come.

Regards,

Punit Jain. Founder, JainMatrix Investments

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

See other useful reports

Disclaimer: 

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com Punit Jain does not have any shareholding in Apple Inc., and JM and its promoters/ employees have no financial interest in Apple Inc., and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report. He does own an old iPad2.

Top performing sectors in 2015 – An Interview

1 Comment

———————————————————————————————————–

Excerpts from my recent interview with IndiaNotes: 

Punit Jain, JainMatrix Investments

Punit Jain

Q: What is your view on the Indian equity markets? Is the correction due or we could see a continuation in the bull run? Please provide your long term perspective on the markets?

Punit Jain: In December we expect a mild correction where the market takes a breather. The Sensex move from 20,300 on 7th Feb 2014 to 28,800 on 28th Nov has been a 42% gain over 9 months almost without a break. All big gains are interspersed with small corrections (and the converse). Plus there is a year end (book your gains) angle for FIIs. But the market will revive in Jan 2015. The long term perspective is a 15-20% annual gain in markets over the next 3 years. This adds up to a 43,000 Sensex by Dec 2017. 

Q: Top 5 stocks you would place your bets on in 2015? Why? Which sectors do you think would be the top performers in 2015? 

Punit Jain: I cannot be stock specific in my commentary, but the sector leadership and the theme for our portfolios is IT Services, Auto and Auto Ancilliary, Banks, NBFCs, Housing and rural/ semi urban consumption. All the top bets would be from these identified sectors. 

Q: What is your take on Kotak Mahindra and ING Vysya Bank merger? Could we see more mergers in the banking sector?         

Punit Jain: Kotak Mahindra Bank was at one stroke able to almost double its branch strength and grow its retail presence. It is thus set to be a much bigger and stronger Bank. All the larger private banks are looking at aggressive growth, both organic and inorganic. There may certainly be more such mergers in the future. It is just a matter of a bank asset being available on the market at the right valuations.

Embed from Getty Images

Q: With global crude oil prices plummeting, is it the right time to invest in Oil companies?

Punit Jain: Its a mixed bag for the Oil & Gas sector.

  • The oil marketing companies will see falling prices at the pump, and subsidies have been withdrawn for many of the petro products. This will help them strengthen financially and their valuations should improve. (Positive)
  • The E&P Oil firms will suffer as the oil produced was benchmarked against international crude prices. Their revenues will be hit. (Negative).
  • The oil refiners will enjoy good margins and the oil prices do not affect them, they pass on any oil price changes. However the demand is falling abroad, so exports volumes may be affected. Domestic demand will be good. (Neutral to Positive).

Q: What is your take on SEBI norms for independent research analysts?  

Punit Jain: Its a very good initiative by SEBI. Speakers on national TV or newspapers will have to be careful about their words and ensure they comply with the norms. I think we will see the emergence of a better quality of research reports and communication. Its better for Investors.

This interview has been published simultaneously on IndiaNotes, at LINK.

Balkrishna Industries – Nov 2014

Leave a comment

——————————————————————————————————

Dear Investor,

I’m quite proud of my Sept 2013 report on Balkrishna Industries. (link) We found this interesting Small Cap stock early. The share price was Rs 238. It had all the ingredients we look for in our investment research.

Small cap. Undervalued. Unknown. In the right sector. Good management.

We made this report public on this very website.

On 12 Nov 2014, this share touched Rs 855.

And we were staring at a 259% gain in a mere 14 months.

 

As usual, Mr Market threw in a googly.

On 13 Nov, Balkrishna came out with its Q2FY15 results. Next day, the share plunged by 16%. One day later it dropped further. A total of 29% wiped out in 2 days.

Investors are nervous about this firm. Perhaps even panicking. Naturally. Who likes to lose 30% of one’s investment in 3 days? So should one exit quickly? Or buy more of Balkrishna? Or just do nothing?

Subscribers of JainMatrix Investments aren’t worried. They’ve just got our follow up report on Balkrishna Industries. They know what to do.

 

JainMatrix Investments is today one of India’s best Equity advisory Investment Services in terms of quality of research, track record and reasonable costs.

JainMatrix Investments is the essential service for the Indian equity investor. 

 

Subscribe now to navigate the profitable but tricky Indian equity markets.

But hurry. There are just a few more subscriptions available. Join this select group of informed investors. 

 

This is an opportunity for you.

Punit Jain

Founder, JainMatrix Investments

Do you find this site useful?

  • Please share your opinion in the Reply box below.
  • Visit the SUBSCRIBE page to find how you can get more. Click LINK
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

JainMatrix Investments – September Updates

Leave a comment

———————————————————————————————————-

Investment Notes

12th Sept 2014

Dear Investor,

The investment climate has certainly improved this quarter. At JainMatrix Investments, we can feel the changes, and our reports reflect this excitement:
  1. The IPO season has started; see our update on Snowman Logistics, An Update – Snowman in the Summer Sun?
  2. We have just created a research report on an exciting Mid Cap Consumer products firm. However this is subscriber restricted.
  3. We finally share our blockbuster report on Motherson Sumi Systems. If you had followed our advice on this, you would have gained 102% in 7 month. Here it is Motherson Sumi – Global Auto Ancillary Growth – LINK
  4. Do you play cards? Why is it that great investors are also good card player? See my thoughts
  5. Some excitement from the PM’s speech on I’day overflowed into the Mid Cap review – LINK
  6. We launched an Investor Rewards fortnight, with 7 quality reports, previously restricted to Subscribers – LINK
  7. We updated our Track Record on Aug 8th, to find our portfolios are doing very well, against their objectives –Report
  8. We shared our thoughts on The Real Estate Industry – LINK
  9. Everyone spends a lot of energy on a BUY decision, but when should you Sell your equity portfolio? See Article
Here’s hoping you learn a little bit, enjoy some more and profit a lot !!
Happy investing
Punit Jain

Do you find this site useful?

  • Visit the SUBSCRIBEpage to find how you can get more. Click LINK
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.
  • Visit and Like JainMatrix FB or Follow on JainMatrix Twitter for reports.

Disclosures and Disclaimer

  • This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation.
  • JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012.
  • This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
  • The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same.
  • Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
  • Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor.
  • Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Mahindra Holidays: Take this break !!

Leave a comment

Dear Investors,
as part of our initiative to reward investors, JainMatrix Investments is proud to present its report,

Mahindra Holiday – Take This Break !!

The entire report is published here, for the first time in public, for your benefit.
Readers may note that the share has appreciated by 12% since my Buy call. However, its best days lie ahead.
Happy Investing,
Punit Jain

JainMatrix Investments's avatarJainMatrix Investments

————————————————————————————————————————————

  • Mar 7, 2013
  • CMP: Rs 276
  • Mid Cap – Market Cap 2334 crores
  • Advice: BUY

JainMatrix Investments presents investors the complete report on Mahindra Holidays published earlier for subscribers only.

Here is a note on Mahindra Holidays.

Summary:

  • Mahindra Holidays is an Indian leader in Vacation Ownership/ Timeshare. It has an excellent brand and is part of a prestigious group. In its business segment, it is a revenue and market share leader.
  • It has added significant capacities in the past years, in India and abroad. The next few quarters should see MH being able to monetize these assets.
  • The 52% fall in share price in the last 3 years should thus be seen as an opportunity to BUY the share at a lower price, and better entry valuations.  

Business Snapshot:

Mahindra Holidays is a leader in Indian Leisure Timeshare

  • Mahindra Holidays and Resorts (MH) is a Travel & Tourism firm and a leader in Vacation Ownership.
  • MH…

View original post 1,211 more words