CPSE ETF FFO – An Energizing Offer – Post Listing Note

Date: 3rd Feb 2017 

Hi investors,

Introduction: We had published a report on the FFO (Further Fund Offer) of CPSE ETF on 14th Jan, 2017. And recommended a BUY with a 1 year perspective. You can have a look at the report on the following LINK and the video on this LINK.

Here is an update about the offer and about the performance of the CPSE ETF FFO.

  • Subscription response: The Reliance Mutual Fund managed CPSE ETF opened for applications from 17-20th It was subscribed by 2.30 times, with bids worth Rs13,802 cr. coming in against the issue size of Rs 6,000 cr. The FFO received 250,000 applications, with good demand across investor segments.
  • Allotment: Retail investors were favoured in this offer. It seems that full allotment has been made to all retail applicant applying up to Rs. 2 lakh worth of this Fund. Investors may also get a rounding off amount credited as refund.
  • Discount: A discount of 5 % on the FFO Reference Market Price of Index was offered to retail.
  • FFO Price: The FFO Allotment Price is approximately equal to 1/100thof Nifty CPSE Index minus discount. The allotment price was Rs 25.21 and this tranche was listed on 31st  Jan.
  • Performance: The EOD closing price on the exchange was Rs. 27.88 today, ie. 3rd Feb, 2017. This translates into a gain of 10.6% in 14 days.
  • Advice: (We stay with our recommendations) that this is a medium risk, medium return offering suitable for conservative investors. Buy with a 1 year perspective.
  • News: Based on the success of this second tranche of CPSE ETF, the Union Budget for FY 2017-18 announced that the government will continue to divest stake in state-owned companies in FY18 in the form of variations of CPSE ETF.

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain has an ownership in CPSE ETF 2014 units and CPSE ETF 2017 as a Retail applicant in NFO/ FFO only. Other than this JM has no known financial interests in CPSE ETF / Reliance Mutual Fund or any related firm. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst and compliant with SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com .

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Balmer Lawrie – An Update

  • 19th Dec 2016
  • CMP Rs 1085
  • Advice: SELL – It has achieved its price target and is Overvalued 

Dear Readers,

We had published a report on Balmer Lawrie and Co (BLC) on 17th Oct, 2016. This is a follow up report where we have changed our recommendation due to significant recent events.

  • We had recommended a BUY at a price of Rs 677 with a Mar 2019 price target of Rs 1,057. We had also predicted a bonus/ split because of the small equity base. This has come true. Details of this report are available on link – Balmer Lawrie – Is Traveling Fast Now
  • The share price is now Rs 1,085 giving our investors a 60% return in a span of 2 months.
  • The sharp rise is due to a bonus issue declared. The firm approved on Nov 10, bonus shares in the proportion of 3:1, giving 3 new Equity Bonus Shares for every 1 share held as on the record date. BLC fixed Dec 27, 2016 as the Record Date for Issue of Bonus The share will quote ex-bonus thereafter. The share is likely to fall by 75% ex bonus.
  • The main reason the share has risen so sharply is that there is high interest from traders to purchase the share before bonus, which may later be sold ex bonus to book a loss on short term capital gains. This is also called Bonus Stripping. (to find out more about this, visit LINK. To do this yourself, please also consult your Chartered Accountant and Investment Adviser).
  • There is no other significant event in the firm (it continues its steady progress).
  • We expect selling in this share to intensify post bonus ie after 27th Dec.
  • The current PE is 18.7 times, much above the 5 year historical average of 8 times and above the Oct 2014 peak of 14 times.
  • Hence we recommend investors in Balmer Lawrie to SELL, as the valuations have shot up sharply and it has moved into overvalued territory.

Additional details: Here is the brief on the company and the price history.

Overview: Balmer Lawrie & Co is a diversified PSU firm into Travel and Tourism, logistics, Industrial packaging, greases, lubricants and Leather chemicals. In each of these areas it occupies good niches. The FY16 revenues were Rs 3,229 cr. and profits 179 cr. The Revenues, EBITDA and Profits of BLC are up by 7%, 6.8% and 7.3% CAGR over 7 years. The balance sheet is strong and RoCE is over 21%. Investors have got a return of 34% CAGR over 8 years.

Price History: Here is a chart of the recent 6 month share price performance.

JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Balmer Lawrie – 6 month price history

We hope you make handsome gains on BLC.

Visit and bookmark www.jainmatrix.com for such valuable investment reports and updates.

Happy investing,

Punit Jain, Founder, JainMatrix Investments

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE 

See other useful reports:

  1. Why Stocks and Investment Outlook Dec 2016
  2. Investment Outlook – Short Term Pain, Medium Term Gain
  3. The Natural Quotient: A Sustainability Metric for Business
  4. PNB Housing Finance IPO: A Transformed Lender
  5. Endurance Technologies IPO 
  6. ICICI Prudential Insurance IPO – An Expensive BUY
  7. GNA Axels IPO
  8. L&T Technology Services IPO 
  9. RBL Bank IPO 
  10. New Banks: Big Changes in Small Change 
  11. Equitas IPO – Leader in SF Banks
  12. Do you want to be a value investor?
  13. Mahanagar Gas IPO 
  14. How will Brexit impact Indian investors?
  15. A Repurpose for our PSUs
  16. How to Approach the Stock Market – A Lesson from Warren Buffet
  17. Thyrocare IPO – Wellness for your Wealth
  18. Announcement – SEBI approval as a Research Analyst
  19. Alkem Labs IPO
  20. Goods And Services Tax (GST): Integration And Efficiency
  21. Syngene IPO: Good Pharma R&D spinoff from Biocon

DO YOU FIND THIS SITE USEFUL?

  • Visit the Investment Service offering page to find how you can get more.
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

Disclaimers

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. JM has no known financial interests in Balmer Lawrie & Co or any related firm. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst and compliant with SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Balmer Lawrie – Is Traveling Fast Now

  • Date: 17th Oct 2016
  • CMP: Rs 677
  • Industry: PSU, diversified
  • Small Cap with Mkt Cap 1980 crores
  • Advice: BUY with a target price of Rs 1057 by Mar 2019, a 56% upside 
  • Overview: Balmer Lawrie & Co is a diversified PSU firm into Travel and Tourism, logistics, Industrial packaging, greases, lubricants and Leather chemicals. In each of these areas it occupies good niches. The FY16 revenues were Rs 3,229 cr. and profits 179 cr. The Revenues, EBITDA and Profits of BLC are up by 7%, 6.8% and 7.3% CAGR over 7 years. The balance sheet is strong and RoCE is over 21%. Investors have got a return of 34% CAGR over 8 years.
  • Why Buy Now: 1) It has been restructuring and strengthening operations by exiting weak segments and undertaking investments in logistics, warehouses, distribution, manufacturing and lubricants. Cash with the firm will be deployed very productively over 2-3 years. 2) The share price has fallen 7% from a recent high of Rs 748. This gives investors an opportunity to enter at lower prices. 3) The cash on balance sheet* is high (Rs 161/sh.), so BLC operations are available for Rs 516. Buy with a target price of Rs 1,057 by Mar 2019, a 56% upside from current price levels.
  • JainMatrix Investments had reported on Balmer Lawrie in Nov-2013 with CMP of Rs 306. Since then, the stock is up 121% in 3 years. See link – Balmer Lawrie – A Steady Boat. We continue to be positive.

Here is a note on Balmer Lawrie & Co (BLC).

BLC – Description and Profile

  • BLC is a 150 year old firm, and is a PSU under Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Based in Kolkata, this is a Mini-Ratna I public sector enterprise.
  • The FY16 revenues were Rs 3,229 cr., profits 179 cr. and market capitalization today is 1,980 cr.
  • It has 5 JVs and the global operations have about 1,729 employees.
  • BLC is the market leader in steel barrels, greases and oilfield services in India. Its logistics division is the profit driver. BLC is into many business segments: (See Fig 1)
    • Travel & Tours – Travel (Ticketing), Vacations & Money Changing Activities.
    • Greases & Lubricants – Globally BLC is a top grease maker, and its brand is Balmerol.
    • Logistics infrastructure and Services
    • Industrial Packaging – barrels and Drums made of Plain Steel and many variations.
    • Leather Chemicals, Refinery & Oil field Services, etc.
  • Travel: BLC is one of the oldest IATA accredited travel agencies in India. The travel segment operates in 88 locations in 19 cities in the country with a good clientele.
  • Greases & Lubricants: BLC is the largest grease producer in India having 3 mfg. plants in Chennai, Kolkata and Silvassa. It also focuses on R&D with an applications research laboratory in Kolkata. The firm is aggressively marketing its Balmerol brand and continues expanding its distribution network of 20 strategically located stock points, 250 distributors & 4,500 dealers in the country.
  • Logistics: BLC has three state-of-the art Container Freight Stations located at Nhava Sheva, Chennai and Kolkata and offers a wide range of logistics solutions for ocean, air & road freight.
  • These three ports do account for 54% of the total container traffic handled in Indian Ports.
  • BLC is an established player in the Indian industrial packaging industry with 35% share in the 200 liter capacity steel drum segment. It holds the leadership position in this segment, market size of which is estimated to be 12 mn. units. It has a pan-India presence with over 6 drum mfg. facilities in Taloja (Mah.), Asaoti (Haryana), Chennai, Kolkata, Chittoor (AP) & Silvassa.
  • Leadership is Prabal Basu-CMD, D Sothi Selvam-Dir mfg, K Swaminathan-Dir Services
  • Shareholding % is: GoI 61.8, DIIs 10.9, FIIs 2.9, Individuals 18.3, Corporates 3.5, Others 2.6%.
JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 1 – BLC Business Segments/ Geographical Segments

Recent events, Business Plans and Strategies

  • BLC has a focus on in-house R&D for all its manufactured products.
  • Travel: In Feb 2014, BLC acquired the holidays brand “Vacations Exotica” (VEX) for Rs 20 cr., and became one of the top five leisure travel companies in India. VEX has been growing at 25% with revenues of Rs 120 cr. and a potential to rise to around Rs 450 cr. over 3-4 years (per management). BLC can now offer holiday packages and corporate travel services to its portfolio of corporate and govt. clients which number 7.5 lakh. The acquisition is yet to add to the bottom-line, and the accumulated loss is Rs 8-9 crore, but this year BLC will minimize loss and in FY18 is expecting profit.
  • Currently, 90% of BLC’s travel business is from the central govt. and 10% from the private sector. This year BLC has targeted to increase the pvt. sector proportion to 25% over 2 years.
  • BLC has embarked on a major technology upgrade for the travel segment, which will help to improve its service levels and reduce overheads.
  • Greases & Lubricants: It launched the new TechTonic Pack for diesel and 4T oils for the auto sector.
  • AVI-OIL India Pvt. Ltd is a JV between BLC, Indian Oil and NYCO France established in 1993 where BLC is a 25% partner. It is involved in indigenous production & supply of aviation lubricants to defense services & aircraft operators in India and manufactures aero engine oils, hydraulic fluids, greases, protectives & other specialty products for the aviation sector.
  • Application Research Laboratory (ARL) has focused towards the R&D of high performance greases for steel and heavy duty open gear grease for sponge iron plants, engine oil for new generation passenger cars, power sector, fine blanking & cold forging (auto) and hobbling (gear mfg. industry).
  • The ARL located in Kolkata, developed tribological solutions using “DEKATROL technology” which is eco-friendly, helps reduce frictional losses, enhance fuel economy and also life of the product.
  • Logistics: During FY16 Logistics Services achieved a growth of 8% in topline which is on account of a surge (20% growth YOY) in air freight services activity.
  • BLC plans to invest Rs 400 crore over the next two-three years, including Rs 60-70 crore during the current fiscal. Most of the investment would be in logistics business. BLC is setting up 3 cold chain facilities in Hyderabad, Delhi NCR and Mumbai and a multimodal logistics park at Vizag Port in JV with Vizag Port Trust (VPT). The project will be built over 53 acres of land. In this Hub, facilities will be created for handling Exim and Domestic Cargo.
  • BLC is searching for a strategic partner to sell its loss making subsidiary Transafe Services Ltd. engaged in the business of container leasing and logistics services.
  • Industrial Packaging: The new state-of-the-art barrel mfg. plant at Navi Mumbai has stabilized and being close to the large consumption centers in the Western Region, has a competitive advantage.
  • There is a fall of available market size for BLC to an extent of 2 million drums per year due to GoI policy on procurement of Drums from MSME manufacturers. Also there are new entrants in Gujarat, Taloja and Chittoor (in and around the Fruit-pulp Market).

Industry Views:

Indian Travel and Tourism Industry: India has moved up 13 positions to 52nd rank from 65th in Tourism & Travel competitive index. Total contribution by travel and tourism sector to India’s GDP is expected to increase from US$ 136.3 billion in 2015 to US$ 275.2 billion in 2025. The number of Foreign Tourist Arrivals has grown at a CAGR of 3.7% to 5.29 lakh YoY in May 2016. Forex earnings during May 2016 grew at a rate of 8.2% YoY to Rs 10,285 cr. (US$ 1.52 billion). Tourists arriving on e-Tourist Visa during June 2016 totaled 36,982 registering a YoY growth of 137.7%. The industry may see good growth on the back of visa reforms. The rupee depreciation against major currencies has improved demand and positively impacted foreign arrivals as India becomes an affordable destination. The medical tourism market in India is projected to reach US$ 3.9 billion in size having grown at a CAGR of 27% over the 3 years, and is expected to clock over 20% gains annually through 2017.

Indian Logistics Industry: India’s logistics sector is set for accelerated growth, led by GDP revival, ramp up in transport infrastructure, e-commerce, impending GST rollout, and ‘Make in India.’ Indian logistics market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.17% till 2020. Empirical evidence indicates that Indian logistics industry grows at 1.5-2 times the GDP growth. A large number of upcoming SEZs have necessitated the development of logistics for the domestic market as well as for global trade. Mumbai has emerged as the preferred location for the development of logistics parks with an investment of approximately $200 million. The development of seven to eight logistics parks are in pipeline on 600 acres around Mumbai. Poor Infrastructure, warehousing & storage and trade Regulations have been hindering growth. The proposed new GST regime and e-commerce will together alter the landscape in warehousing, supply chain management and third party logistics business particularly for organized sector.

Indian Lubricants & Leather Industry: India is the 5th largest lubricant market in volume terms behind the US, China, Russia and Japan. In terms of revenue, the lubricants market size was valued at USD 37 billion in 2014, which is expected to surpass USD 74 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 8.5%. Increasing automobile sales is expected to drive lubricants market size over the forecast period. India’s leather industry has grown well, transforming from a raw material supplier to a value-added product exporter. Today, around 50% of India’s leather business comes from international trade. The GoI had identified the Leather Sector as a focus sector in the Indian Foreign Trade Policy in view of its immense potential for export growth prospects and employment generation.

Indian Industrial Packaging Industry: The packaging industry in India should reach $73 billion in 2020 from $32 b (FY15), per FICCI and TSMG. The Indian packaging industry constitutes about 4 % of the global packaging industry. (Source IBEF). Indian packaging industry is anticipated to register 18% annual growth, with the flexible packaging and rigid packaging expected to grow annually at 25% and 15%, respectively. Germany & Italy are the main suppliers of packaging machinery but emerging are Taiwan, Korea, China. There are about 600-700 packaging machinery manufacturers, 95% of which are from SMB. Competition is from alternative packaging like PE Drums, IBC/ISO Tankers/ Flexi – Tanks, etc. BLC indicated that sales volume in FY16 were marginally less than FY15 in spite of shrinkage of demand due to GoI directives to procure MS Drums only from Small & Medium Enterprises.

Stock evaluation, Performance and Returns

  • BLC’s price history is detailed in Fig 2. The share price shot up sharply in 2014.
  • Investors in BLC over 8 years got a return of 34% CAGR including bonus and dividends.
  • Dividends have been generous, and are currently 180% or Rs 18/share giving 2.6% yield.
JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 2 – Price History

  • The recent low is 491 in Feb 2016, and the high was Rs 748 in Sep 2016, so BLC has risen sharply this year, but is currently 7% below the highs.
  • Revenues, EBITDA and Profits of BLC are up by 7%, 6.8% and 7.3% CAGR over 7 years.
  • BLC has EBITDA and profit margins of 9.9% and 5.5% resp., which are good, see Fig 3.
  • Current P/E is 11.86 times (of trailing twelve months earnings), while the Price/ Book is 1.71 times. The current valuations look reasonable, which is a positive.
  • The Q1 every year (Apr-June) is the best by revenue. This may be due to the holiday season. But In Q1 FY17, revenues fell due to fall in aviation fuel price and austerity measures from the government.
  • Debt equity ratio is 0.11 which is low. This is a sign of a healthy balance sheet.
  • BLC has positive free cash flows over 8 years, and it has been investing this in assets, a positive. Fig 4.
  • BLC balance sheet* has cash & equivalent (Rs 457), which is Rs 161/sh., so BLC operations are available for (677-161) = Rs 516.
JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 3 – Quarterly Financials (click to enlarge)

JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 4 – Free Cash Flow

  • In Fig 5, the 8 year PE chart for BLC has historic avg PE of 8 times, a range of 4-12 times.
  • Today it is at 11.86 times. The PE has recently fallen from a high of 13.66 times. With good cash levels and a healthy balance sheet, we expect PE levels to rise further.
  • In Fig 6 we can see that the EPS TTM is rising in a steady fashion over the last 8 years within a channel.
  • Beta of stock is 0.9 (Reuters) indicates lower than Sensex volatility, which is good.
JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 5 – Price and PE Chart (click to enlarge)

JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 6 – Price and EPS Chart

JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Fig 7 – Financial Metrics

  • From Fig 7 we can see that the debt equity ratio has been reduced and is currently low. This is positive. The interest coverage ratio has improved. Dividend yield is healthy at 3%. The inventory turnover ratio improved, implying efficient inventory management. Operating & profit margins are flat to positive.
  • BLC’s ROCE fell in the last five years, but it is still high at 21.1% in FY16. Similarly RoNW.

The picture that emerges of BLC is a healthy balance sheet, conservative financials and improving cash.

Benchmarking and Financial Estimates

In a benchmarking exercise we compare BLC with listed peers in similar businesses. See Exh 8.

JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Exhibit 8 – Financial Benchmarking

  • From the exhibit, we can see that BLC has low valuations and high dividends.
  • Margins are low but steady. Similarly the 3 year growth numbers.
  • Return ratios are high for the peer group. Debt is low. Interest coverage is good.
  • This is consistent with its conservative PSU character and steady performance so far. If we bring together the solid past with the recent good growth initiatives, a positive picture emerges.
JainMatrix Investments, Balmer Lawrie

Exhibit 9 – Financial Projections

  • The financial projections for 3 years for BLC in Fig 9 are based on conservative assumptions of investments in operations, stability in crude prices at current levels and no dilution of equity base.
  • Based on projections and a target PE of 12, we project a Mar 2019 price of Rs 1057, a 56% upside from current levels.

Strengths of BLC

  • It has diversified businesses and even during poor economic cycles, BLC has not been hit. The BLC stock has low beta, with stability of a large cap, and the returns, growth potential and upside of a small cap.
  • Strong balance sheet, low debt and good cash balance provides stability and room for growth.
  • BLC has been consistently generating high dividend yields and has robust ROCE numbers.
  • Many of the BLC businesses are high potential with good growth prospects, including Travel & Tourism, logistics, lubricants and industrial packaging.
  • With good investment plans across businesses, BLC is showing a new found aggression. BLC also has exited some legacy businesses with bad returns, such as tea. This too is a bold step.
  • As a Mini-Ratna I PSU, BLC can invest up to Rs. 500 crore or equal to their net worth, whichever is lower without explicit government approval. This allows BLC to move fast on investment plans.

Weaknesses and Risks

  • A likely partial disinvestment in future could give a temporary downside pressure on the stock price.
  • In the import-export trade, there is an ongoing reduction in volumes through ports due to slowdowns in developed economies and China. This may affect the logistics business.
  • BLC may face competition from packing products like PE Drums, and IBC/ISO Tankers/FlexiTanks.
  • BLC profitability is exposed to volatility in commodity prices, especially crude oil & steel, which impact the industrial packaging and oil & lubricants divisions.
  • The travel business faces low entry barriers, threat of govt./PSUs withdrawing the preferred travel agency status and efforts from airlines for direct sale of tickets. BLC will mitigate this by distribution on online portals and focus on value added segments of leisure travel.
  • BLC is over dependent on GoI/ PSEs for its ticketing business as around 90% comes from public sector.
  • There is competitive pressure for Balmerol with established brands such as Castrol, Veedol & Gulf enjoying a lion’s share in the retail lubricants business.
  • BLC is facing challenges with delayed payments from public sector customers.
  • Shipping lines/ CHAs & Forwarders continue to exert pressure for payment of increased incentives for moving their boxes to a particular Container Freight Stations (CFS) & demand more storage free days.
  • Being a small cap share, there can be low trading volumes on the exchanges.

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendation

  • At first glance BLC looks like a small cap that is a complex conglomerate with legacy issues.
  • However on closer analysis we can see that it is into 4-5 high potential segments which together give it a stable portfolio. BLC is shedding / closing down the weak businesses, and investing in the potentials.
  • The balance sheet of BLC is excellent with low debt, good cash and is strengthened by free cash flows.
  • With a small and stable equity base, it appears likely that BLC will reward shareholders with higher dividends, splits and bonuses in the next few years.
  • BUY Balmer Lawrie with a Mar 2019 target price of Rs 1057, a 56% upside from current levels.

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE 

See other useful reports:

  1. Endurance Technologies IPO 
  2. ICICI Prudential Insurance IPO – An Expensive BUY
  3. GNA Axels IPO
  4. L&T Technology Services IPO 
  5. RBL Bank IPO 
  6. New Banks: Big Changes in Small Change 
  7. Equitas IPO – Leader in SF Banks
  8. Dilip Buildcon IPO 
  9. Do you want to be a value investor?
  10. Mahanagar Gas IPO 
  11. How will Brexit impact Indian investors?
  12. A Repurpose for our PSUs
  13. How to Approach the Stock Market – A Lesson from Warren Buffet
  14. Thyrocare IPO – Wellness for your Wealth
  15. Announcement – SEBI approval as a Research Analyst
  16. Alkem Labs IPO
  17. Goods And Services Tax (GST): Integration And Efficiency
  18. Syngene IPO: Good Pharma R&D spinoff from Biocon

DO YOU FIND THIS SITE USEFUL?

  • Visit the Investment Service offering page to find how you can get more.
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

Disclaimer and Notes

Note on * – we made an edit to this report on 19th Oct, removing an erroneous calculation.

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same JM has no known financial interests in Balmer Lawrie & Co or any related firm. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from your Investment Adviser. Punit Jain is certified and registered under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Do you want to be a value investor?

I came across a Question on Quora, the Q&A website, and would like to share my Answer here:

The question was – How do I start value investing?

To a new individual investor, learning Value investing can open the doors to wealth and a nice side income. In fact if Indians take to investing like in the developed countries, half the population may eventually have at least some money in stocks.

Here’s what to Do: 

You may find some points are from an Indian context:

  1. Start by looking at your finances. Can you set aside some money for a 2 year period without needing it, and which if your experiment fails, you can lose? This is your seed money.
  2. Get a brokerage account. If you are internet savvy, online only accounts are sufficient. Look for convenience and low brokerage. Buying or selling a share today is as easy as eCommerce.
  3. Next you need to find listed companies whose products or services you (or people around you) love. It could be your bath soap. Or your savings bank. Or your biscuit snack. Whats the brand? And company. Connect backwards. Use moneycontrol.com to see if the company is listed.
  4. Now Research this company identified. What else do they make. How are their finances. Who owns the firm. Are the promoters good people. Have they done well in the past. What are growth plans. There are some financial ratios that you need to check. The P/E, P/B and D/E should not be too high. Look for companies with high RoE. There are other ratios, but this is a good start. Value stocks are those that are worth much more than indicated by their current share prices. The research can result in a fundamental thesis for a company, like “with a new factory revenues will grow 45% and profits 60% in 2 years”, or  “the 40% fall is share price is unjustified and we expect a full recovery plus 20% based on growth of financials”.
  5. Investing is like growing a tree. It can’t be hurried. It needs care.
  6. If you feel good about the research for a certain company, start your investing exercise by buying a few shares, a fraction of your seed money, say 20%.
  7. Repeat above exercise in some time to find 2-3 more companies and add 20% of the seed money for each. Track these firms for a few months. Keep reading up about them. See if the news flow is positive or negative.
  8. Review your company in 3-4 months by relooking at (4) questions periodically, say after the quarterly results. Sell the company if (4) answers on review don’t add up or price has gone too high. Buy more if the company performance is good but price goes low.
  9. Remember, a fall in share price and a notional loss for you is not necessarily a sign of a bad company. Check against (4) questions. Similarly the converse. A gain in share price may not necessarily be the sign of a good company.
  10. Build your learnings. Find non consumer companies that you understand or are comfortable with, to invest. Read books by great investors like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch and our own Mohnish Pabrai. Keep learning.
  11. Cut out investing noise. Any stock tips you get should only be starting point for research with (4). There are a lot of hot stock picks floating around. But who is tracking it for you?
  12. Both greed and the pain of loss will hit you over the years. There will be times where you see a 30% notional loss in a share. Just check against (4) questions for buy and sell decisions. Try to stay satisfied with past decisions, while learning from them.
  13. Be humble. You will be wrong many times, but you have to bounce back.
  14. If you get it right, over the years you can outperform the Sensex / Nifty Indexes, equity Mutual Funds and Portfolio Managers. If you grow in learning and confidence over months and years, as does your portfolio, this door has opened for you. Congratulations.
  • This is how I did it. This is my process and some lessons learned over 12 years as an investor. I am now a SEBI registered and certified Research Analyst.
  • Visit JainMatrix Investments  to fast track your above process, or to get an experienced stock market Analyst to partner and help you. Note that not everyone can be a good value investor, or even spare the time required. A section called Investor Education has been created only to guide you along.
  • Read Disclaimer below also …… one point from there I would like to emphasise is – The suitability or otherwise of any equity investments will depend upon the person’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor.

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DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH200002747) under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Rajesh Exports – a Golden Acquisition

  • CMP: Rs. 720
  • Date: 18th Feb 2016
  • Industry – Gold & Jewellery
  • Large Cap – 21,300 cr mkt cap
  • Advice:  Buy Rajesh Exports with a 2 year perspective 

Summary

  • Overview: Rajesh Exports is an integrated gold firm into refining, jewellery manufacture and retail.
  • It had revenues of Rs 50,462 crore and net profits of Rs 655 cr. in FY15.
  • The Revenues, EBITDA and Profits are up by 26.5%, 31.8% and 39.9% CAGR over 6 years.
  • Key strengths are: large scale operations in gold refining (in India & Switzerland) and jewellery design and mfg. (India). The management appears experienced, capable and shareholder friendly.
  1. Why Buy Now: A recent acquisition of Swiss gold refiner Valcambi will allow the firm to scale up to a globally significant size.
  2. The possible synergies with Valcambi include lowering of costs, Europe market access and cooperation on technology and R&D.
  3. Growth plans include retail expansion (will improve margins) and Australia mining investments (will tie up ore requirements).
  4. Even though the share price has appreciated well this year, there is still a good upside visible.

Here is a note on Rajesh Exports Ltd. (REX).

Rajesh Exports – Description and Profile

  • REX is a Bangalore based integrated gold and jewellery firm. Started in 1989, it has a presence across the value chain of gold from mining to retail.
  • REX had revenues of Rs 50,462 crore and net profits of Rs 655 cr. in FY15. About 90% of revenues are in foreign exchange. It has 358 permanent employees (FY15).
  • REX became the largest refiner of gold globally with the acquisition of Swiss firm Valcambi in July 2015. It now processes 35% of global gold, and with the Uttarakhand refinery can refine 2400 tons p.a. of metals.
  • REX has gold jewellery mfg. facilities at Bangalore, Cochin and Dubai with a capacity of 350 tons.
  • It has R&D facilities in Switzerland & India for innovative jewellery design and a large jewellery database with 29,000 designs. REX exports gold jewellery mainly to USA, UK, Singapore and UAE.
  • REX has set up 83 retail showrooms under the brand SHUBH Jewelers since 2010. This jewellery brand is known for quality, designs and value for money. It contributes about 9% of profits with a margin of 7-8%.
  • The Leadership-Promoter team is Rajesh Mehta (Chairman), Prashant Mehta (MD) and Vijendra Rao (CFO).
  • Shareholding % is: Promoter 53.9, DII 2.5, FII 16.8, Individual 2.6, Corporate 1.0 and Other 23.2

jainmatrix investments

Valcambi Acquisition and Synergies

  • REX through its Singapore subsidiary acquired Valcambi in an all cash deal for $400 m (then Rs 2,560 cr) in July 2015. Valcambi is debt-free with cash surplus of $150 m.
  • Reports so far indicate a smooth transition and integration of Valcambi and REX. The Valcambi management is committed to stay back after acquisition for 5 years.
  • Valcambi has the capacity to refine 1,600 tons gold and 400 tons of other precious metals like silver.
  • Back end strengths of Valcambi combined with front end strengths of REX provide good synergies.
    • REX can adopt technologies from Valcambi to upgrade and accredit the refining facility in India.
    • REX plans to market designer jewellery in Europe and North America with Valcambi, which has an extensive marketing network in Europe and America.
    • Valcambi was already one of the larger suppliers of gold to REX pre-merger. Other potential gains include sharing gold sourcing synergies, optimizing labour and shared support services.

Value Chain of Gold

The range of REX business activities are explained in Fig 1.

Business Mix and Gold Value Chain, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Business Mix and Gold Value Chain, Source, Company documents

  • The REX group with this acquisition now straddles across the Gold value chain. The strengths are Refining, Jewellery Manufacturing and Wholesale. The weaker spots needing investment are Mining and Retail.
  • REX group installed capacities and current usage:

jainmatrix investments

READ AND DOWNLOAD THE ENTIRE REPORT

Here is the entire investment report on Rajesh Exports.

JainMatrix Investments_Rajesh Exports_Feb2016

Feel free to click the PDF document and read /download the document.

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DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. JM has no known financial interests in Rajesh Exports Ltd or any related firm. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Punit Jain has applied for certification under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com .

SKS Microfinance

JainMatrix Investments has recently published a report on SKS Microfinance. Here is a brief introduction to SKS.

Description and Profile

  • SKS is a microfinance firm (NBFC-MFI) based in Hyderabad that distributes small loans.
  • In FY15, Income was Rs 724 crores and Profits Rs 188 cr. on a Loan Portfolio of Rs 4,185 cr.
  • Loans range from Rs 2,000-12,000 for low income women to start and expand a small business. Also loans upto 30,000 are disbursed provided customers complete 2 loan cycles.
  • SKS has a business model, where customer groups are formed to act as a guarantor, instead of individuals. They are educated by well trained staff of SKS in weekly meetings and updates. This has proved efficient and the credit collection rate is over 99%.
  • SKS caters to 5.8 million clients with 1,268 branches across 16 states centers, 9000 plus workforce and 3.6 million Non–AP borrowers.
  • Current shareholding is Promoters 9.2%, FII 42.7%, DII 18.4%, Bodies Corporate 7.2%, Individuals 9.3% and others 13.2%.
  • The MD & CEO of SKS is Mr M.R. Rao, a career Banker with 25 years’ experience in Profit Centre Management, Insurance distribution, Retail Banking and Consumer Finance. Rao joined SKS in 2006. Other leaders are Mr S. Dilli Raj, President and Mr K. V. Rao, Chief Operating Officer.

The rest of this report is restricted to subscribers. So visit the Payments Page, become a subscriber to the Investment Service and claim your copy of this report.

Regards,

Punit Jain  Founder, JainMatrix Investments

CPSE ETF – Unlocking Value, Slowly

The CPSE ETF NFO was launched in March 2014, and JainMatrix Investments had evaluated this offer and rated it a BUY. See this report – LINK. See post NFO note – LINK. We now review this ETF for its performance so far and evaluate it as an investment today.

Summary

  • The ten CPSE ETF firms are well known, high dividend, asset rich Indian PSUs’.
  • Investors have got a return of 27% (absolute) and 18.8% (annualized) in 17 months.
  • The prospects of the ETF firms look good. The govt. is executing on long pending structural reforms such as oil prices decontrol, subsidy reduction, power sector refocus, etc. On the whole, the CPSE ETF firms are expected to perform well.
  • The 20% fall in the last 45 days gives investors an opportunity to enter at better value.
  • BUY the CPSE ETF with a minimum 1 year perspective.

Introduction

  • Date 14th Sep-2015
  • Mutual Fund Nature – Large and Mid Cap PSUs ETF
  • Issue Price – Rs 17.45 post discount for retail category (FV – Rs 10, Premium – Rs 7.45)
  • NAV – Rs 20.8
  • Advice: Buy

CPSE ETF Description

  • The Central Public Sector Enterprises ETF Index was started to help the GoI disinvestment.
  • The Fund Manager, Goldman Sachs listed the CPSE ETF in a New Fund Offer on 4th April 2014.
  • The ten firms included in this ETF are well known, high dividend, asset rich Indian PSUs’.
CPSE ETF, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Sector weights, JainMatrix Investments

CPSE ETF, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – CPSE Performance, JainMatrix Investments

  • We can see from the Price history of CPSE ETF, Fig 2, that within 2 months of launch, it hit its high of Rs 27.95. It was steady at 24+ levels till early Aug 2015, but has fallen almost 20% to 20.8 today.

Performance Review and ETF Outlook

Now here is a look at the ETF performance since the NFO listing.

CPSE ETF, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – Investment Performance , JainMatrix Investments

CPSE ETF, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – CPSE Shares and Outlook, JainMatrix Investments

  • Investors have got a return of 27% (absolute) and 18.8% (annualized) on the ETF. Fig 3.
  • Being an ETF, this fund invests in and tracks a weighted average of share prices of the stocks listed in Fig 4. In addition, we capture the share price gains and dividend over 6.5 years.
  • JainMatrix Investments had pegged an expectation of 24% from this ETF for the first year. This was achieved, but in the last 2 months, the ETF NAV fell due to the to the Coal India, ONGC and GAIL shares fall.

Pros of ETF

  • The GoI is making efforts to energize these firms to achieve production & revenue targets that will achieve national objectives. This will benefits investors also.
  • Many of these firms own wonderful assets, the family silver of the Govt of India. These firms may also enjoy monopoly status, and may be the implementation arms for govt. initiatives.
  • We can see that the GoI is in the process of dismantling the Administered Price Mechanism in Oil & Gas, and allowing Coal India, ONGC, etc to truly work freely without govt constraints and subsidy systems. If this is done, the massive assets and value of these firms can be unlocked.
  • The CPSE ETF has a low management charge at 0.49% as the stocks and weightage is fixed.
  • The weighted average share price appreciation over last 6.5 years is 11.8% for the firms. See Fig 4. This of course can vary widely from year to year. Dividend yield for these stocks is 3.67%.
  • Tax benefits: Individual resident investors would gain from nil tax on Long term capital gains, which kicks in at 12 months for this equity oriented fund.

Cons of CPSE ETF 

  • The ETF is dominated by the Oil & Gas, Power and Coal sector, where we have seen in the last one year a rapid fall in global commodity prices. This has affected the ETF performance.
  • This fund is Oil & Gas heavy with a 60% weight. If one extends the description to Energy Sector with Coal, Power, Oil & Gas and related financing, it increases to 92%. This is a high sector risk.
  • The GoI is in the process of disinvestment in PSUs, including some of the CPSE firms. This typically lowers share prices in the short term, till this process is complete. There is also talk of a second CPSE fund.
  • Decontrol of prices in petrol /diesel sector has affected Oil E&P while benefiting OMC firms.
  • Power sector reforms are crucial for financial improvement and debt reduction. This has started, but even so the power sector financial firms may see uneven performance.
  • Most of these stocks are asset heavy and resource rich firms. Their performance depends upon revenue growth, which has slowed down in recent years.
  • Another sharp fall in global oil prices can again depress the CPSE ETF performance.

Overall Opinion

  • There should be a stabilization and recovery in the ETF from here basis the following:
    1. There has been a massive fall in Oil prices globally. However now, it does not appear that there will be a further sharp fall. Thus ONGC share should not fall much further.
    2. Coal India and GAIL disinvestments should be complete in the next 3 months.
  • The prospects of the ETF firms post the above events look good. The government is cleaning up on long pending issues with structural reforms such as oil prices decontrol, subsidy reduction, etc.
  • Coal India performance (with Railways support) has improved of late. They are tasked with utilization of massive coal deposits and good supply which will reduce the need to import coal and waste forex.
  • On the whole, the CPSE ETF firms are expected to perform well.
  • BUY the CPSE ETF with a minimum 1 year perspective.

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain has a small retail investor holding in CPSE ETF since NFO. He also has small holdings in the firms CIL, IOCL and EIL mentioned in this report. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. JM has applied for certification under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

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