Here’s a Great Construction Achievement

Every once in a while, I come across an event or achievement that worth appreciating. Here is one such incident. It is terrific of Indian Railways to be able to do this.

Indian Railways sets record, builds subway at a busy track in 5 hrs; watch video

See LINK

Regards, Punit Jain

Do comment or share forward if you like the post.

Advertisements

Indian Hotels Sector – Time to check in?

Shares of many hotel companies have rallied in recent months. What are the reasons for this? Can investors find good investment ideas in this sector?  

  • Related Research: We had published a report on Mahindra Holidays in Mar 2013. The share is up 109% in 5 years, or 22% annualized. To read the report, click on LINK
  • The Sector can be tracked on moneycontrol on LINK

Introduction:

  • Tourism in India accounts for 9.6% of GDP and is the 3rd largest forex earner. It is a high potential, sunrise sector with a multiplier effect on transportation, hotels and exports.

jainmatrix investments, hotel sector

Sector Trends:

  • Over the last decade, India’s hotel industry witnessed excess supply of hotel rooms which led to low occupancies, flat/falling Average Room Rates (ARR) and average financial performance of hotels operating across different business segments. See Fig 1 and 2.
  • The hotel sector in India experienced flat to negative growth in occupancies over FY08-13 primarily due to a substantial growth in supply and a decline in demand. During FY12-15, as many as 43,800 rooms were added creating nearly 70% new capacity; and simultaneously the economy and hotel demand grew so occupancy growth was flat. Several hotel firms were loss making in this period.

jainmatrix investments, hotels reportFig 1 – Average Room Rates of Indian Hotels  and Fig 2 – Occupancy Rates. Source: HVS 2017 Hotels report

  • The chart below (Fig 3) reflects the occupancy scenario over the years and the growth projections. We can see that the demand growth is rising, while supply growth has slowed. Improved occupancies are expected to create a base for higher room rates. The higher occupancy and higher ARR’s will improve the earnings of firms from the industry.
  • Fig 3 Sources are 1) Lemon Tree Hotels RHP 2) HVS 2017 report 3) STR and Horwath HTL India Reports

jainmatrix investments, hotels reportFig 3 – Hotel Industry Demand-Supply and Occupancy

Benchmarking:

We have done this exercise of key players to better understand their performance.

  • From the exhibit, we can see that a lot of the companies trade at high P/E ratios. This is generally due to depressed earnings earlier and a recent move from loss to profits. However, a few companies are even now loss making.
  • The 3 year sales and PAT growth for most of the companies was dismal. Returns too are low.
  • The industry was also affected due to liquor ban on operators near highways. This has however been sorted out and is applicable for non-urban locations.
  • The implementation of GST was neutral for the industry. However tax rates may fall now.

jainmatrix investments, hotel reportExhibit 4 – Benchmarking

Conclusion

The hotel industry is clearly witnessing a revival. The hotels witnessing higher occupancy rates and improved pricing power with conservative management will be profitable investments.

Disclaimer:

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain has no positions in any firm mentioned in the report. JM also has no known financial interests in these firms. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JM at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Indian Roads Sector – A Delightful Drive Ahead?

  • Date 26th April  
  • Industry – Roads Construction 

Summary

Here is a snapshot of the interesting Roads Sector. We sense a revival, and a number of players are active here.

Additional Roads Sector Reports from JainMatrix Investments

  • Please read our Feb 2018 report on HG Infra IPO by clicking on LINK.
  • And our July 2017 report – IRB Infra Developers – In Invit We Trust – LINK
  • Additionally do read our Aug 2016 report on Dilip Buildcon IPO by clicking on LINK.
  • We share a Nov 2015 Roads sector report – LINK

Introduction

  • The development of any nation depends on transportation networks, and this is applicable to India with its varied terrain ranging from mountains to plains to coast. Transportation includes Roads, Railways, Airlines and Shipping, however in this note we will focus on Roads.
  • India has the 2nd largest road network in the world, aggregating to 61 lakh kms. Roads are the most common mode of transportation and account for 86% of passenger traffic and 65% of freight traffic. In India, NHs with length of 1.04 lakh km are just 1.7% of the road network, but carry about 40% of the total road traffic. On the other hand, state roads and major district roads at the next level carry another 60% of traffic and account for 98% of road length.
  • There are 2 Govt. bodies which award road projects at the central level, NHAI which is in charge of the National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) and the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), which covers those highways not under NHDP. In addition, it also awards projects under Govt. schemes like Left Wing Extremism (LWE) scheme (road development in Naxalite areas), Special Accelerated Road Dev. Programme for North-East Region (SARDP-NE), NH Interconnectivity Improvement Project (NHIIP), etc.

jainmatrix investments

Road Projects Progress

  • From Fig 1 and 2, we can see that road projects awarded and completed flattened out during FY12-FY14. Delays in land acquisition & receipt of environment/forest clearances, economic slowdown and cash flow issues faced by developers had adversely impacted the sector. From the Fig 3 below we can see the transition of project awarding to new modes over the last few years.

jainmatrix investmentsFig 1 – MoRTH projects Awarded / Fig 2 – NHAI projects / Source: MoRTH / NHAI ARs 

  • In FY16, the NHAI introduced the Hybrid Annuity model (HAM) as the earlier BOT-Toll based awarding caused financial distress to the developers and the EPC model involved high upfront investment of funds. In HAM, 40% the Project Cost is to be provided by the Govt. as ‘Construction Support’ to the developer during the construction period and the balance 60% as annuity payments over the operations period along with interest on outstanding amount. This model has received good response from industry and investors.

jainmatrix investmentsFig 3 – NHAI project awarded

  • CRISIL Research expects investment in road projects to double to Rs. 10,70,000 cr. over 5 years.
  • Investment in state roads are expected to grow steadily, and rise at a faster pace in case of rural roads, on account of higher budgets for Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) since FY16.
  • The GoI approved the Bharatmala program under which 53,000 kms of national highways have been identified to bridge critical infra gaps. It will give the country 50 national corridors as opposed to 6 at present. Phase I will be implemented from FY18-22 with 24,800 kms of construction expected.

Key Players

  • In Q4 FY18, the MoRTH had aggressively awarded projects to further accelerate the pace of road infra development. See the order book position of a few listed road developers, Fig 4 and Fig 5.

jainmatrix investmentsFig 4 – Order Books of Roads players / Fig 5 – Order Book FY18 / Fig 6 – Benchmarking 

  • Note: FY18# is the order book basis 9M FY18 data and documents available on the exchange.
  • In Fig 6, we have done a benchmarking exercise to compare a few sector players.

Conclusion

  • The development of road infra in India is witnessing great momentum. Robust demand, higher investments, favourable policies and government’s willingness has changed the face of the road sector in the country. The construction of roads per day hit a new high of 27 kms/day for FY18, which is much higher than what was achieved earlier.
  • The momentum of building a stronger road network in India is likely to improve as it generates mass employment and leads to significant growth in contribution to the GDP. Given the current roads sector scenario, investors should definitely not miss this exciting opportunity.

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

  • See other useful reports on the right side panel and See Reports sections of the Menu.
  • Visit and Like JainMatrix FB or Follow on JainMatrix Twitter for reports

Do you find this site useful?

  • Visit the Investment Service page to find how you can get more. Or Click LINK
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain has positions in IRB Infra since Feb 2008 and H G Infra post listing. Other than this, JM has no known financial interests in IRB Infra or any other firm mentioned in the article. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JM at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Budget 2018 – LTCG Tax and Investor Updates

Date: 2nd Feb, 2018 

Taxation on Indian Equities

There are Tax rates in place for LTCG (Long Term Capital Gain) and STCG (Short Term). A long-term capital gain is a gain from selling a share held for longer than 1 year. Gains are aggregated across all an investor’s LTCG transactions for the FY. So far, LTCG was zero tax in India, while STCG rate was 15%.

The LTCG Tax proposals in the Union Budget for FY18-19?

In Budget 2018, the Govt. has proposed a 10% LTCG tax for equity and equity MFs with 2 conditions:

  1. The LTCG tax of 10% would be levied only on the LTCG in excess of Rs 1 lakh in one fiscal.
  2. The gains up to 31st Jan, 2018 will be grandfathered. This will protect our LTCG gains so far.

Let us understand this with an example the FM used while presenting the budget. If an equity share is purchased 6 months before 31st Jan 2018 at Rs. 100/- and the share price trades at Rs. 120/- on 31st Jan 2018 than in respect of this, there will be no tax on the gain of Rs. 20/- if this share is sold after 1 year from the date of purchase. However, any gain in excess of Rs. 20 earned after 31st Jan 2018 will be taxed at 10% if this share is sold after 31st July, 2018. To put it simply,

  • Any LTCG accrued until 31st Jan 2018 wouldn’t be taxed.
  • Any incremental LTCG above this would then be taxed at 10% (If you hold it at least for 1 year)
  • If you sold in less than 1 year, the existing 15% STCG would be applicable as earlier.

Background to LTCG and impact for investors?

It was in 2004 that tax on LTCG was removed and Securities Transaction Tax (STT) was introduced. STT levies a small tax on every transaction – buy or sale, done through stock exchanges. For FY18 the govt. may earn Rs. 7,769 cr. of revenue from STT. So now we see both STT and (LTCG – STCG) taxes in place.  As per projections, the govt. may collect Rs. 20,000 cr. through LTCG tax.

Tax Planning:

  1. If your portfolio gains have been 20% for LTCG so far, we can estimate that this may fall to 18% incrementally for fresh investments. Investors should continue to make Buy and Sell decisions based on portfolio growth objectives.
  2. Investors can Set Off the LTCG against any Long Term Capital Losses in the year for Tax planning.
  3. For investors with a direct equity and Equity MF portfolio of less than Rs 10 lakhs, they may like to plan the sales so that the ‘less than 1 Lakh LTCG rule’ applies for that financial year.
  4. Where the portfolio is larger, this additional tax will be inevitable.

So what might be the market mood now?

  1. The grandfathering concept will protect the Investors for past LTCG gains.
  2. Equity as an asset class has been enjoying good returns for the last few years. We feel it will continue to outperform other asset classes like gold, real estate, FDs etc.
  3. Investors need to bake in the LTCG tax impact. The markets may see a small correction or negativity for a few days before recovering.

Disclaimer 

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor or Chartered Accountant. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Vikas Ecotech – Get ‘Vikas’ for your Investments

  • Date: 22nd Jan 2018
  • CMP: Rs. 40.7

Today we have published an update report on Vikas Ecotech.

  1. To remind you, on 24th Apr 2017, at a CMP: Rs. 21.25, we had published this report on this website.
  2. We had set a Target price of Rs. 52.7 by May 2019, a growth of 143% from then CMP, over 25 months.
  3. The entire report is available on VIKAS ECOTECH – Get ‘VIKAS’ for your Investments
  4. We are happy to note that our Apr 2017 report has given 92% gains in 9 months. 
  5. However, this update report is restricted to our valued subscribers only.

To receive all such reports, SIGN UP FOR – THE INVESTMENT SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE 

See other useful reports – look at the listings on RIGHT PANEL or SEE REPORTS on MENU above.

DO YOU FIND THIS SITE USEFUL?

  • Visit the Investment Service offering page to find how you can get more.
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

Disclaimer and Additional Details

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain discloses that he has been a shareholder at VET since May 2017. Other than this, Punit Jain and JM have no known financial interests in Vikas Ecotech & Co or any related firm. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. Equity investments are subject to market risks. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, we recommend that investors looking to invest in equity should take advice from a Registered Investment Adviser. Punit Jain is certified and registered under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Is Investing a Science or an Art – Or Both?

  • Date: 21st Dec 2017
  • Subject: Thoughts around Investing 

What is a Science?

Science as per Wikipedia is a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe. Science is associated with consistent, independent and timeless outcomes.  A science can be studied in a textbook, and when applied in an experiment, it will always deliver an expected result under same conditions.

What is an Art?

An Art can be defined as the ‘expression or application of human creative skill and imagination’. Across painting, music and literature, people find Art as a way to express themselves and create something uniquely different, that communicates to other humans. It somehow combines both technique and emotion.

So is Investing a Science, or an Art?

When I speak of Investing, I differentiate it from Trading and refer to stock purchased for a holding period greater than 1 year, bought based on fundamentals analysis.

The Science: Investing appears to be a Science when we look at the quantitative side of things. The analysis of the balance sheet, income statements and calculation and understanding of the key ratios, as well as interpreting them seems to be a fairly scientific exercise. Companies can fairly quickly be bucketed under Poor, Average and Good using quantitative techniques, based on data about the past.

The Art: However the qualitative side of investing is not so well defined. It is also very important.

  1. Which sector is the firm from? Is this sector doing well overall and are prospects good?
  2. How good is management in this firm?
  3. Is the firm encouraging a second line of leadership and executives?
  4. How are the products of the firm? What is the USP of the firm? The moat? How does it compare with peers?
  5. What’s the future for this firm given these realities? How do we value this firm? If there is a valuation gap (mispricing) when will this gap be filled by the market?
  6. What are the risks, uncertainties and bad scenarios for this firm?
  7. What are the exit criteria for the firm?
  8. As an investor, can I control my emotions like fear, pride, regret, laziness and greed? The psychological part of investing, that which involves your emotions, your expectations, your attitudes and your habits, is a crucial part of the recipe for success. How does one react to market news and fluctuations? Can I generate and stick by my ideas long enough to find success? Or would I prefer to follow the herd?
  9. Finally with so many complex inputs, and unknowns, I feel intuition plays an important part in key decisions. This too is more Art than Science as it is more judgement and not quantifiable.
  10. In addition each investor brings to the table his own set of strengths and biases. This helps him identify successful investing ideas only in certain situations. This can be a core strength of an investor if it is well understood.

So we can see that this part of Investing certainly has a technique, involves a lot of judgments and interpretations and is quite an Art. The objective of course is to protect and grow wealth, so its an applied Art.

The Brain – 

jainmatrix investments

Conclusion:

So we can see that while the core of Investing is scientific and quantitative, this has over it a thick wrapping of human judgement, emotion and real life uncertainties.

Can a Computer Do Good Investing?

Here is a famous quote by the legendary investor Peter Lynch. “Investing in stocks is an art, not a science, and people who’ve been trained to rigidly quantify everything have a big disadvantage.”

My feeling is that computers can handle the quantitative side of investing well. This is of course based on the fact that computers are powered by good programming and applications.

The Art or qualitative part of investing is very hard to program and incorporate into a computer.

However there are a bunch of newer technologies such as Machine Learning, fuzzy logic and Artificial Intelligence. It’s quite possible that some of these techniques can be adapted to help in Investing and may even become quite good.

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

The Most Profitable Research this year from JainMatrix Investments

  • Apex Frozen Foods Ltd.
  • A 225% gain for our Subscribers for purchases from open markets in just 3 months. 
  • The IPO allottees still holding have got a 324% gain in 3 months. 

At JainMatrix Investments, we’ve done a lot of research reports in the last year. We’ve had our share of (many) successes and (a few) failures. This has been a good year for the stock markets so no surprises that our success rate has been high. Even so, lets focus on the best success we have had this year.

On 20th August 2017, we published an IPO report on Apex Frozen Foods Ltd. This was a public report, and you can see it even now at Apex Frozen Foods IPO – An Apex Buy.

jainmatrix investments, apex frozen foods

The subscription for this IPO was not impressive, it went just 6.1 times subscribed, not much by this years standards.

But at JainMatrix Investments we were very positive about it. So much so that before the firm’s listing on 4th Sept, we published a Pre-Listing Note on Apex. This was a Premium report, available only to subscribers, but the Summary is shared below:

JainMatrix Investments, Apex Frozen Foods IPO

The listing was good but not very impressive, it closed at Rs 210, a rise of 20% on first day. Thereafter, restricted by its 5% upper and lower price limit, it rose 5% every day for a few days, then actually fell by 5% for a few days too.

Our Subscribers who took our instructions got ample opportunity to buy this share below Rs 230.

And very soon, with the seafood industry doing well, and some news flow such as good results declared for the Half Year and Quarter ended Sept 2017, the share has done very well, see graphic.

jainmatrix investments, apex frozen IPO

Today we are happy to note that investors who took our recommendation to buy the share below Rs 230 have seen a 225% gain. IPO applicants still holding today have got a 324% gain on their investment in just 3 months. 

Clearly the share has by far exceeded our 1.75 year target of Rs 469, to reach Rs 742 today. This is a success beyond our imagination.

This is a marketing article. At this point we do not express any opinion of BUY, SELL or HOLD on Apex Frozen Foods. We are just happy to share with you that this is Our Most Profitable Research this year. 

Happy investing,

Punit Jain

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain discloses that he holds Apex Frozen Foods shares since the IPO this year.  Other than this, JM has no known financial interests in Apex or any group company. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.