Tag: indian equity

Power Grid FPO – Nov 2010

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While all analysts and reporters are talking endlessly about Power Grid FPO in the shadow of the Coal India IPO, see link,
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/quickiearticleshow/6893599.cms

I wonder if anyone has given thought to the risks around this offer :
· High Debt – at around 37k crores (March 2010), debt is high. The D/E ratio is 2.18. And one of the purposes of this FPO is to raise additional equity and reduce the D/E ratio, and at a later stage, also raising additional Debt. Much of the debt is from low cost funding agencies. However it has to be repaid eventually, right?
· Dilution of Equity – dilution of 10% by fresh issue available and being offered in this FPO. This means that EPS will fall proportionately, so a Rs 105 stock (at constant PE and earnings) should fall to 94.5 Rs post FPO.
· Underperformance of stock compared to Sensex – see graphic attached. Over last 2 years, PGCIL has underperformed the Sensex.


· Limited upside – Returns are capped; performance of PGCIL depends on energy generation by power plants, and there have been delays in commissioning of power gen plants.
· Past year has seen a go slow in awarding of projects for setting up transmission lines (I own KEC International, a downstream EPC firm. Thats another story).
Comparisons with Coal India are difficult to defend, even though there is a public sector monopoly –
· This is a highly capital intensive sector
· Derived Demand – PGCIL revenues are derived from the performance of power generation plants.
I would say a more balanced view is required.
· FPO is 10 times oversubscribed yesterday – this is a good sign.
· Expectations are that several projects of this company will be commissioned in the next few months, this will drive up revenues and profits
Personally I would like to nibble at this FPO, rather than take a large bite. If you have a Core and Satellite portfolio, this can be a small, defensive, market performer holding.

Coal India IPO note – published on Sat, Oct 23, 2010

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I am positive on CIL as a company, and the IPO, for the following reason
· Indian industry needs Coal, and CIL has 80% of market share, with all production being lapped up by consumers
· India will stay energy deficit for a while to come.
· Our energy consumption is still tilted towards coal (for power generation)
· CIL is profitable and is looking at steady capacity growth and margin improvement
· CIL has communicated that
– it is aware that coal is of low quality and is improving output quality by investing in washeries
– that mining is destructive to environment, and has committed to extensive re-forestation and CSR
· The competing energy sources – Gas, fuel oils, nuclear – are low in terms of available / discovered reserves in India
· Hydro has larger environmental impact and R&R issues.
· Alternative energy like solar, wind, etc are expensive, difficult to scale up. It will take time for these technologies to become feasible. I lost my shirt in Suzlon ;-)
· I believe that organisations like ONGC and CIL will in the years to come, invest in and transition to sustainable technologies and operations for energy production, as they become feasible.
· In terms of pricing and immediate returns outlook, CIL is attractive.
· At 15 times over subscribed for the largest Indian IPO by size, we have a stunning signal for the markets – very positive indeed.
· I classify CIL as same category as ONGC, a safe long term investment, one must not expect too much from it.