A short market note
- When demonetization happened in Nov-Dec 2016, there was high uncertainty and markets fell sharply. By end Dec however, the Indices bottomed out. The cash shortage was being overcome and other fears receded. Since then, the key indices recovered smartly by about 21%. We feel that the event is behind us and even the worst affected firms are now nursing back to pre-demon health.
- The budget in Feb and the 5 state elections after this strengthened the positivity and good feel factor. Markets appear to be resuming the broad multi-year bull-run.
- The next major event is the imminent GST implementation which is bringing many changes, many good and some bad:
- As GST rates are being declared, companies are reacting to them eg. Gems and Jewellery firms rose sharply on 5th June, reacting to the 3% GST on gold, which was positive.
- Sectors like Logistics, Transportation and FMCG are beneficiaries of GST and they have appreciated in the last 6 months on GST news.
- However, the destocking and restocking by dealers /wholesalers to deal with GST and compliance requirements and changes to systems and processes at all levels will take a quarter to settle. Incremental tax fears may see weak June orders but a strong July may cover up.
- Unorganized sector and MSME may see a net increase in taxes as GST compliance covers all, and this may affect profits and competitiveness.
- Round UP of other factors:
- The INR remains stable in the Rs 63-68 zone with a strengthening bias in light of lowered inflation, good forex reserves and exports looking robust.
- In Indian markets, liquidity flow is strong from retail and FII investors into Indian markets. This reflects in the IPO markets, which look strong with the CDSL IPO subscribed 170 times, a new record. GoI too is planning a number of disinvestments.
- The 3rd Fed rate hike happened and it did not appear to affect Indian markets. Fear around inflation looks unfounded, and a bad monsoon in 2017 looks unlikely.
- The risks or negatives that we see now are – 1) bank NPAs need resolution, the GoI is focused on this and there needs to be some progress here 2) along with some clarity around PSBs restructuring 3) cross border and terrorism issues 4) The Q4FY17 results were fair, and the market is in ‘above average’ valuations zones. However current levels are not excessive. Mid and small caps continue to do well.
- Stay positive on the markets !!
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This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Adviser. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at firstname.lastname@example.org.