How to approach the Stock Market – a lesson from Warren Buffet

This year the world’s most famous investor Warren Buffet did something unusual during his firm Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM.  He let the Apr 30th one-day event be telecast live over internet to anyone interested. I have taken one wonderful lesson delivered that day by Warren Buffet and rewritten it for the Indian market. It is here in 7 simple points.

  1. Lets say there are a 100 people sitting in front of us, and these 100 represent the entire Indian stock market shareholders, they own all the shares available. See Picture 1.  jainmatrix investments. audience
  2. Lets make a line in the center, and separate them out with the left half owning 50% of all shares and similarly the half on the right. The left half are passive investors. They do not trade shares much, just buy and hold. The ones on the right are active investors and traders. They invest through equity mutual funds, equity futures, buy and sell options, trade intraday, hedge funds, etc.
  3. The Indian Sensex has given 14.8% CAGR annual returns in 14 years since 2002. See Fig 2. jainmatrix investments, Sensex May 2016
  4. The people on the left are going to get the average returns of the Sensex, ie. 14.8 % CAGR over this entire period. They are passive, and so they will get the average returns. Tax on profits that are Long term capital gains (>365 days) on equity is zero.
  5. The ones on the right are also going to get an average of 14.8% over this entire period. However, their real returns will be much less due to tax, commissions, brokerage, AMC charges and success fees.
  6. Why is this? This is because:
    • The equity mutual funds are going to take away as much as 2.5% per year of AMC charges.
    • The traders in Futures and Options are essentially playing a +14.8% sum game, where the underlying equity is on average appreciating by 14.8%, and all the trading only declares some winners and some losers. The losses of the trading losers get transferred to the winners. Also, the intraday, momentum and swing traders too are in the same boat as F&O.
    • Trading is governed by an equation, Profits (by winners) + commissions + taxes = Losses (by losers). Of course if you are a good trader, you will get superior returns while another group will face the losses. But risks are higher here.
    • A lot of your money is eaten up by brokerage, taxes, AMC charges, fees and commissions.
  7. The lesson here is – become a passive long term investor and get the 14.8% long term average of returns. Spend your time on more useful things, and get good returns on investments.

Once again we thank the great investor for his simple but powerful messages.

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DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH200002747) under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Seven Short Steps to Long Term Investing Success

Dear Investors,
I got a question on a discussion forum, about Long Term Investing. I found the line of thought very interesting, and my reply is in the form of the Seven Steps to Long Term Investing Success !!
So here goes.  (thanks Srini and Musa).
..

First the question

Dear All,
Need some advise.
I intend to invest some X amount in some select stocks with a holding period of about 8-9 years.
Is it good to leave it untouched till the end of holding period? Or is it advisable to set some yearly target say 20% or so and exit once the target is achieved in a year and wait for some lows to happen to reenter the stock for a target n exit once again and continue this cycle till the end of Holding year.
I don’t know how the above approach of mine sounds, but need you to give me some thoughts on how to go about it.
Regards.
..
Here’s my Answer:
..

the Seven short Steps to Long Term Investing Success

Dear Investor,
This is a pretty good question.
The investing process I feel you should follow is:
  1. Stock Selection: Obviously, choose your Select Stocks well. Since the holding period is 8-9 years, you need to look closely at the fundamentals. Each stock needs to have an investment thesis (eg. capacity expansion of 200%, or a new product launch that can grow profits 150%) and a price target for a specified period of time like say 2-3 years. These need to be high conviction ideas. Plus good Portfolio thinking is that there should not be an overexposure to any one sector, to reduce overall sector risk.
  2. Investment: Buy the Selected Shares. One way to simplify things is to buy shares of roughly equal monetary value.
  3. Monitor the Stocks: Next these shares need to be monitored. Is the investment thesis being played out in reality? Any external events affecting it? A six monthly review for these Select Stocks may be sufficient.
  4. Minimize Transactions: I would disagree about the 20% annual targets and exit /entry cycle. Good well chosen shares may appreciate even 100% in a good year, yet may still be cheap and worth buying, even at this level, if the 2-3 year outlook still looks good. Every delivery based entry and exit can cost you upto 0.6% of your asset, so transactions should be minimized for long term investments.
  5. Use Dips to Buy: Also the reverse may also happen. The investment thesis may be playing out well, but the share price may have fallen 20%. You need to be patient here, and can even buy more of this stock if you have funds.
  6. Exit Non-Performers: My approach would be to (on Review) sell those Stocks that are not performing on fundamentals as per the investment thesis (this may or may not be reflected in the price performance) and perhaps buy more of those that are performing. There is no shame in admitting mistakes. Even investment greats like Anthony Bolton (I’m reading a great book by him called Investing Against the Tide) talk about a success/ hit rate of 55-60%. The secret is to identify mistakes and reduce losses by exiting fast.
  7. Time in Market: Over the 8-9 years period a good internal price target to have is to get a 20% annualized return for your Select Stocks. But notice that big returns come in a few years and things may be flat to negative for the others. So I prefer “Time in Market” with “Good Stocks” where you will get the returns over time.
Thats it !! I guess many years of investing have helped me give a short and sweet answer.
Sorry for generating Option 3 compared to 1 or 2 asked by you, but this is my recommended approach.
Here’s to your investing success.
(needless to say, revert to me if you need help with choosing stocks and monitoring  Emoji )
Regards, Punit Jain
Bangalore, Founder, JainMatrix Investments
 .. 
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DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER

Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and all stock investments are subject to market risks. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a Financial Adviser. This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. JM has applied for certification under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Thanks for the appreciation

Dear Readers,

I’d like to thank one of my subscribers for his appreciation note.

Punit Jain

On Fri, May 22, 2015 at 6:37 PM, Mohit <mohit…..@gmail.com> wrote:

 

Investment Outlook and Large Cap Portfolio Note

Positive Outlook and The Portfolio Outperforms by 6.2%

Report dated: 20th May 2015

JainMatrix Investments presents its Investment Outlook, and the May 2015 update of its Retirement LC Model Portfolio.

Investment Outlook Note

  • It’s now one year since the new government was elected in at the center. We are fairly pleased with this year in the economy. Without many flashy and headline oriented statements, the government is building stability and solidity in the governance. The achievements include successful auctions in Telecom and Coal mines, improvements in the Power and Coal sectors, efficiency in Parliament and improved foreign policy and exchanges. The LPG cylinder subsidy scheme is a successful pilot for other subsidy programs. Petrol and Diesel seem to be subsidy free.
  • Much more needs to be done, of course. But well begun is half done. Note that stock market investors till some years ago gained most from sectors free of government interference and control. Going forward, my confidence is growing that more sectors will be added that are free. The economy will reap benefits from improvements in ease of doing business, economies of scale and the Make in India – Export to the World initiative.
  • The INR/USD rate is now 63.73, and we now peg this to be in the range of 62-66.
  • The recent spate of volatility in the Indian stock markets is a normal short term correction after a strong rise over the last 20 months.
  • The Indian market continues to be a magnet for global investment funds, as the Indian economy has the best outlook of the BRICS countries. It is also among the few large economies growing fast.
  • Further we have seen over the last one year that the Indian investor too has come back to the markets. This is partly because other asset classes like Real Estate and Gold are not as attractive.

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In terms of outlook we expect the next few triggers to be:

  • Reductions in interest rates by RBI.
  • Improvements in the Gold asset class with the Gold monetization scheme, which may reduce imports and reduce illiquidity and improve returns from this asset.
  • Infrastructure improvements including fast tracking of projects and better PPP structures.

In terms of Risks we would identify

  1. Excessive volatility in INR-USD exchange rates or crude prices
  2. Opacity and slow resolution of foreign ownership and investment taxation issues (Vodaphone, Nokia, MAT, etc.)
  3. Poor or uneven rainfall in coming season

JainMatrix Retirement Large Cap Model Portfolio Theme

  • We renamed the portfolio as the JainMatrix Retirement Large Cap Model Portfolio.
  • The objective of the Retirement LCMP is to outperform the Sensex and Nifty by 5-10%. We have achieved this consistently over the last 29 months.
  • The seven stocks in the portfolio are from seven different sectors, but the overall focus is on Banking, Consumption, Exports and Infrastructure.

Portfolio Performance

  • The portfolio has only 7 BUY shares.
  • The RLCMP continues to perform well. On average the 7 Buy recommendation shares were up by absolute 55.5% and annualized 24.6%.
  • The Sensex and Nifty were up by 18.3% and 18.0% annualized in the same period.
  • The JainMatrix active Retirement LC Model Portfolio thus outperformed by 6.2%.
  • Investors need to continue to invest in these shares in a SIP mode for safe long term returns.

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Some previous notes for this Portfolio

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DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. JM is voluntarily compliant with SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

JainMatrix Investments Large-Cap Portfolio Investment Note

———————————————————————————————————————-

Date: 15th May 2014

Investment Note

JainMatrix Investments presents the May 2014 update of its Large Cap Model Portfolio.

  • The year 2014 has seen the Indian indices move into new high territory. The stock investment climate remains positive with events such as strengthening Indian rupee, fall in inflation, a high decibel general election and some stability at RBI and the banking sector.
  • FIIs were early on the trends with high investment inflows. This was also aided by the other BRICS and emerging economies not looking as good as India.
  • The next major trigger is the General election results. Elections closed on May 12th and the exit polls indicated a win for the BJP. The markets rapidly priced it in with a 6% appreciation in 3 days. We now expect Retail to enter the market in larger numbers, and the IPOs season to start again.
  • Risks at this stage are a weak domestic monsoon, inflation rise and a fractured election mandate.
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  •  We remain positive on the markets, and feel that it’s time for investors to Review their Investment portfolio, prune the lower quality/ underperformers and rebalance their holdings. JainMatrix Investments has launched its Portfolio Review Service to this end.
  • Theme: The Large Cap Model Portfolio investment theme remains – Sector leaders and undervalued but fundamentally sound challengers, from sectors we are positive on. The investor should continue his stable long term wealth building process with these Large-Caps.
  • Performance: In a volatile environment, the portfolio performed well. We also expect the performance to improve in the next few quarters.
  • The Large Cap Portfolio has 7 Buys and a Hold.
  • Investors need to continue to invest in these shares in a SIP mode. 

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Some previous Updates for this Portfolio

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Either JM or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com