Great Investing Wisdom

Here is a brilliant tweet from @jposhaughnessy. With my commentary. Since this is great investing wisdom, I suggest you take a few minutes to read this. 

Jim O Shaughnessy   / My Thoughts

I’m adding a few of my thoughts, and an Indian angle.

jainmatrix investmentsjainmatrix investmentsjainmatrix investmentsjainmatrix investmentsjainmatrix investments
jainmatrix investments

Here are the links that Jim had referred to in case you are interested

Hope you liked this. Do comment below.

Punit Jain

DISCLAIMER:

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JM at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

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How much is Conviction and Confidence worth?

Hi friends, here’s a small story I’d like to share with you.

Over a year ago, JainMatrix Investments (JM) did a research and found an interesting investment opportunity. It was a mid cap firm. JM then went ahead and created a detailed 9 page equity research report and shared it with its subscribers. They projected a target price with a 50% gain in 2 years. They were convinced that this was an excellent firm, with good prospects. In the next 6 months, the share did well, it appreciated 60%, and seemed to justify the recommendation. The target price was achieved, but JM continued to be positive about the firm and retained a BUY on it.

Then things changed suddenly. There was a ‘bad news’ article about the firm in the papers. It contained unconfirmed but serious allegations. Suddenly there was uncertainty around the firm. The share price started falling. Market pundits all said they were unsure about the firm. Every action of the firm became suspect. Management interviews and press releases were cast aside by investors. Within weeks, the share price plunged 65%. In such a situation most investors would buckle under the pressure. Mutual funds cannot allow such losses on investments. HNI investors in the firm panicked. FPIs demanded investor calls and worried about everything. Naturally everyone was worried.
In share market parlance, this is called a Falling Knife.

At JM, the approach is to analyse such situations from the fundamentals and find the facts out of the news flow. The recent quarterly results of the firm were excellent. The stated 3 year vision was taking shape. There is normally no reason to disbelieve management statements and official press releases. Most of the rumors were vague, difficult to disprove and causing more controversy. Its possible that share market operators may have grasped this opportunity to drive down the price. But this can only be done for a short period of time.

It requires a lot of character to stand up to a Falling Knife. But the analyst at JM was sure. So JM advised their subscribers to hold on and not be swayed by the price movements and controversy.

jainmatrix investments

After the 65% fall, the share stabilized. It then started rising again. The JM subscribers, who were invested and took our advice, saw their notional losses disappear. The brave ones actually took advantage of the fall and saw a nice profit in a few weeks.

This brings me to my question,

How much is Conviction and Confidence worth to an investor in the stock markets?

Any answers, my friends?

Feel free to add your comments, below, to this post.

Regards,

Punit Jain, founder JainMatrix Investments.
PS – This note has been created as marketing and educational content to help investors. No security is mentioned here. Such a situation can arise many times in the stock markets.

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012.

This note has been created as educational content to help investors. No security is mentioned here. Such situations can arise many times in the stock markets. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Why are Indian stock markets attractive for Investments?

In this 5 minute video, JainMatrix Investments founder Punit Jain presents a few reasons for investing in Indian stock markets. This is part of the Investor Education section of http://www.jainmatrix.com.

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  • Visit the Investment Service offering page to find how you can get more.
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DISCLAIMERS

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst and compliant with SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

Do you want to be a value investor?

I came across a Question on Quora, the Q&A website, and would like to share my Answer here:

The question was – How do I start value investing?

To a new individual investor, learning Value investing can open the doors to wealth and a nice side income. In fact if Indians take to investing like in the developed countries, half the population may eventually have at least some money in stocks.

Here’s what to Do: 

You may find some points are from an Indian context:

  1. Start by looking at your finances. Can you set aside some money for a 2 year period without needing it, and which if your experiment fails, you can lose? This is your seed money.
  2. Get a brokerage account. If you are internet savvy, online only accounts are sufficient. Look for convenience and low brokerage. Buying or selling a share today is as easy as eCommerce.
  3. Next you need to find listed companies whose products or services you (or people around you) love. It could be your bath soap. Or your savings bank. Or your biscuit snack. Whats the brand? And company. Connect backwards. Use moneycontrol.com to see if the company is listed.
  4. Now Research this company identified. What else do they make. How are their finances. Who owns the firm. Are the promoters good people. Have they done well in the past. What are growth plans. There are some financial ratios that you need to check. The P/E, P/B and D/E should not be too high. Look for companies with high RoE. There are other ratios, but this is a good start. Value stocks are those that are worth much more than indicated by their current share prices. The research can result in a fundamental thesis for a company, like “with a new factory revenues will grow 45% and profits 60% in 2 years”, or  “the 40% fall is share price is unjustified and we expect a full recovery plus 20% based on growth of financials”.
  5. Investing is like growing a tree. It can’t be hurried. It needs care. Embed from Getty Images
  6. If you feel good about the research for a certain company, start your investing exercise by buying a few shares, a fraction of your seed money, say 20%.
  7. Repeat above exercise in some time to find 2-3 more companies and add 20% of the seed money for each. Track these firms for a few months. Keep reading up about them. See if the news flow is positive or negative.
  8. Review your company in 3-4 months by relooking at (4) questions periodically, say after the quarterly results. Sell the company if (4) answers on review don’t add up or price has gone too high. Buy more if the company performance is good but price goes low.
  9. Remember, a fall in share price and a notional loss for you is not necessarily a sign of a bad company. Check against (4) questions. Similarly the converse. A gain in share price may not necessarily be the sign of a good company.
  10. Build your learnings. Find non consumer companies that you understand or are comfortable with, to invest. Read books by great investors like Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch and our own Mohnish Pabrai. Keep learning.
  11. Cut out investing noise. Any stock tips you get should only be starting point for research with (4). There are a lot of hot stock picks floating around. But who is tracking it for you?
  12. Both greed and the pain of loss will hit you over the years. There will be times where you see a 30% notional loss in a share. Just check against (4) questions for buy and sell decisions. Try to stay satisfied with past decisions, while learning from them.
  13. Be humble. You will be wrong many times, but you have to bounce back.
  14. If you get it right, over the years you can outperform the Sensex / Nifty Indexes, equity Mutual Funds and Portfolio Managers. If you grow in learning and confidence over months and years, as does your portfolio, this door has opened for you. Congratulations.
  • This is how I did it. This is my process and some lessons learned over 12 years as an investor. I am now a SEBI registered and certified Research Analyst.
  • Visit JainMatrix Investments  to fast track your above process, or to get an experienced stock market Analyst to partner and help you. Note that not everyone can be a good value investor, or even spare the time required. A section called Investor Education has been created only to guide you along.
  • Read Disclaimer below also …… one point from there I would like to emphasise is – The suitability or otherwise of any equity investments will depend upon the person’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor.

Upvote my answer on Quora if you liked it – Quora

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DO YOU FIND THIS SITE USEFUL?

  • Visit the Investment Service page to find how you can get more. Or Click LINK.
  • Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH200002747) under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

How to approach the Stock Market – a lesson from Warren Buffet

This year the world’s most famous investor Warren Buffet did something unusual during his firm Berkshire Hathaway’s AGM.  He let the Apr 30th one-day event be telecast live over internet to anyone interested. I have taken one wonderful lesson delivered that day by Warren Buffet and rewritten it for the Indian market. It is here in 7 simple points.

  1. Lets say there are a 100 people sitting in front of us, and these 100 represent the entire Indian stock market shareholders, they own all the shares available. See Picture 1.  jainmatrix investments. audience
  2. Lets make a line in the center, and separate them out with the left half owning 50% of all shares and similarly the half on the right. The left half are passive investors. They do not trade shares much, just buy and hold. The ones on the right are active investors and traders. They invest through equity mutual funds, equity futures, buy and sell options, trade intraday, hedge funds, etc.
  3. The Indian Sensex has given 14.8% CAGR annual returns in 14 years since 2002. See Fig 2. jainmatrix investments, Sensex May 2016
  4. The people on the left are going to get the average returns of the Sensex, ie. 14.8 % CAGR over this entire period. They are passive, and so they will get the average returns. Tax on profits that are Long term capital gains (>365 days) on equity is zero.
  5. The ones on the right are also going to get an average of 14.8% over this entire period. However, their real returns will be much less due to tax, commissions, brokerage, AMC charges and success fees.
  6. Why is this? This is because:
    • The equity mutual funds are going to take away as much as 2.5% per year of AMC charges.
    • The traders in Futures and Options are essentially playing a +14.8% sum game, where the underlying equity is on average appreciating by 14.8%, and all the trading only declares some winners and some losers. The losses of the trading losers get transferred to the winners. Also, the intraday, momentum and swing traders too are in the same boat as F&O.
    • Trading is governed by an equation, Profits (by winners) + commissions + taxes = Losses (by losers). Of course if you are a good trader, you will get superior returns while another group will face the losses. But risks are higher here.
    • A lot of your money is eaten up by brokerage, taxes, AMC charges, fees and commissions.
  7. The lesson here is – become a passive long term investor and get the 14.8% long term average of returns. Spend your time on more useful things, and get good returns on investments.

Once again we thank the great investor for his simple but powerful messages.

JainMatrix Investments helps you in your investing process with good stock picks for the long term, monitoring of the firms over these periods and superior returns, all at a low fixed subscription rate!!

We have given Sensex plus returns in our Large Cap Model portfolio for over 3 years. And our Mid and Small Cap Model Portfolio has actually provided exceptional returns. See JainMatrix Track Record !!

Annual subscription for the Investment Service is available for Rs 11,999/- (India located) or US$ 210 (located outside India), for individual / Retail investors.
Investment firms, wealth professionals and Institutions may contact us for a quote for Investment Services.

MAKE PAYMENT NOW

Warren Buffet enthusiasts may see the entire 7 hours of the AGM event on video on LINK.

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE 

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Search for companies/ sectors of your interest in Search box in the right panel.

Visit and Like JainMatrix FB or Follow on JainMatrix Twitter for reports

DO YOU FIND THIS SITE USEFUL?

Visit the Investment Service page to find how you can get more. Or Click LINK

Register Now to get our Free reports and much more, on the top right of this page, or by filling this Signup Form CLICK.

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH200002747) under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

A Superior Investing Process – Do a DIP SIP

Did you know that the DIP SIP is the most efficient way to invest in the stock market?

We at JainMatrix Investments recommend investors to invest in equities in a Direct Equity – DIP SIP mode. The equity markets have fallen sharply this year, and this is a good time to invest. Let us explain this process.

What is a SIP?

A Systematic Investment Plan or SIP is a smart mode for investing money which allows you to invest a certain pre-determined amount at regular intervals (weekly, monthly, quarterly, etc.). A SIP is a planned approach towards investments where the saving habit becomes a routine. The SIP approach can be used for any investment vehicle, such as FDs, MFs, direct equity, etc.

Why Equity investments?

Historically investments in equity stocks have given higher returns amongst all the other asset classes if investment was done with discipline and a long term time horizon. See an assets map where we present a number of asset classes and the Risk-Return trade off, Fig 1.

Fig 1 – Comparison of Asset Classes, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Comparison of Asset Classes (click on image to expand)

What are the benefits of an equity SIP?

  1. Ride the Volatile Equity class and reduce Risk with Rupee Cost Averaging
  2. SIP can be started with very small amount of money, and increased at a later date
  3. Timing the market is not necessary. But gains are best when markets are low.
  4. Long term financial goals can be aligned with SIP
  5. Disciplined approach towards Investment helps in controlling the emotions
  6. Investments get aligned with income flow and it becomes a regular habit

The JainMatrix Investments Model Portfolios

JainMatrix Investments launched its Large Cap Model Portfolio in Dec 2012 and its Mid & Small Cap Model Portfolio in Feb 2013. These two portfolios are chosen from over a 100 stocks that we have researched over the years. The main reason for two separate model portfolios is to offer simple investment choices, and to align with the risk appetite of investors.

  • The Large Cap Model Portfolio consists of 7 stock picks from 7 different sectors. The firms chosen are identified as high potential large caps with good fundamentals. The minimum investment period is 2 years. The objective is to outperform the Sensex/ Nifty by 5-10%.
  • The 7 stock picks from the Mid & Small Cap Model Portfolio are from 3-4 high potential sectors. These firms have very good growth potential irrespective of mid, small or micro size. The minimum investment period is 1 year. The objective is massive out-performance of Mid/Small cap Indices.

DIP SIP and equity MF SIP compared

Now that you have understood the equity SIP mode of investment, it is imperative to compare DIP SIP – investing directly in equity with equity Mutual Funds.

1 – Expense Ratios

Investments in equity Mutual Funds are expensive in terms of the expense ratio cost incurred to the investor. Expense ratio states how much you pay a MF in percentage term every year to manage your money. This includes the fund management fee, agent commissions, registrar fees, and selling and promoting expenses. The Expense Ratio that is disclosed every March and September as a percentage of the funds net assets. As you grow your investment portfolio over the long-term, a high expense ratio will eat into your returns through power of compounding. The expense ratio of debt MF’s is typically in the range of 0-1% whereas it is in the range of 1-3% for equity MF’s. See Fig 1.

Exhibit 2 – Expense ratio of MFs, JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 2 – Expense ratio of MFs (Source: Finalaya.com)

In comparison to this, the JainMatrix Investment Service has a fixed/ flat annual charge.

2 – Performance

Now let’s have a look at various index returns, top performing large, mid & small cap MF’s and the performance of JainMatrix Investments model portfolios.

Top 10 Large Cap MFs over last 3 years

JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – The top 10 Large Cap MFs over 3 years (Source Value Research)

The best performing large cap MF over a 3 year period is Birla Sun Life Frontlife Equity Fund which has given investors a 13.7% simple annual returns. In the same period the SENSEX has given investors a simple annual return of 7.27% and JainMatrix Investments Large Cap Model Portfolio has given a simple annual return of 13.3%. Let us understand this graphically in Fig 4.

JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – The Sensex, MF and JainMatrix LC Portfolios (Source Value Research)

Top 5 Mid Cap and Small Cap MFs over last 3 years

JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 5 – Return and expense ratio of top 5 Mid and Small Cap MFs (Source Value Research)

  • The best performing Mid-Cap MF over a 3 year period is UTI Mid Cap Fund with a 28.08% simple annual returns. In this period, the S&P BSE Mid-Cap gave returns of 17.14%.
  • The best performing Small-Cap MF over a 3 year period SBI Small & Midcap Fund gave 33.23% simple annual returns. In this period the S&P BSE Small Cap gave a return of 18.22%
  • The JainMatrix Mid & Small Cap portfolio gave a simple annual return of 47%. See Fig 6.
JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – The Indices, MF and JainMatrix MSC returns (Source Value Research)

3 – Control

Investors in MFs hand over the investment performance to the portfolio management team of the MF. They can now decide only to buy, hold or exit. However in the case of the JM Model Portfolios, investors retain control over the purchases as the investments are in their own trading/ demat accounts. This offers additional flexibility to investors for both entry and exits.

4 – Liquidity

Liquidity is the investors ability to encash in the case of urgent need for money. MF’s can be closed ended MFs that will be locked in until maturity thereby removing chances of liquidity during the investment term. Thus if an investor wants the money immediately, then he/she would have to pay an exit load for the same which is again 1-3% of the invested amount. ELSS MFs are locked in for 3 years. Direct equity is very liquid as within 2-3 days the stock can be sold and the cash credited into the linked bank account. However from a tax perspective, the treatment is the same for direct equity and equity MFs. Long term capital gains kick in after 1 year of investing.

How to execute a DIP SIP?

Checklist for a Direct Market SIP:

  • You can use your current Online Trading account/ broker relationship for the DIP SIP. If you have to choose among your broker options, choose the one with lower brokerage or better ease of use.
  • Decide on the 5-7 stocks you will invest in.
  • Decide on the amount you will invest every month – here I would suggest you fix an amount in the range of Rs 5,000 to 50,000 and keep up this amount every month. Thumb rules here can be 10% of your take home salary or 50% of monthly savings.
  • Create a small calculation excel for helping you decide the actual number of shares to be bought. See section – Start Investing.
  • Decide a date for investing. If you are salaried, perhaps 2nd or 3rd every month is a good date as it is right after you have received your salary. Or any other convenient date. Keep a reminder for this.

Choose Your Stocks

This is an important step. My key principles in choosing the stocks are:

  • For a high stability low risk portfolio, choose large liquid blue chips.  They should be Nifty/ Sensex stocks. You do not want too much volatility in this investment.
  • For an aggressive higher risk portfolio, choose mid & small cap stocks with high potential.

Subscribe to JainMatrix Investments Investment Service to receive proven, high performing Model Portfolios

Start Investing

  • You are now on the day you are starting your DIP SIP, within trading hours.
  • Choose your DIP SIP portfolio of stocks. Lets say you chose the top 5 shares by mkt cap.
  • Lets say you have chosen the amount Rs. 30,000 to be invested every month for your DIP SIP.
  • Create a small excel – which can help you calculate the number of shares right now. See fig 7.
JainMatrix Investments

Fig 7 – Tool for DIP SIP purchase

  • Open the excel, do the calculation; then buy the DIP SIP through your broking account.
  • Your DIP SIP can be done in 10 minutes every month. 

Start your DIP SIP today. Subscribe to the JainMatrix – Investment Service to get our top performing Model Portfolios  and recommendations and you are ready to go.

Click here to subscribeLINK

Contact us on LINK

See our Track Record LINK 

Happy Investing!!!!!

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE 

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  9. JainMatrix IPO Reports deliver 60.5% returns

Search for companies/ sectors of your interest in Search box in the right panel.

Visit and Like JainMatrix FB or Follow on JainMatrix Twitter for reports

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Punit Jain has applied for certification under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com .

Seven Short Steps to Long Term Investing Success

Dear Investors,
I got a question on a discussion forum, about Long Term Investing. I found the line of thought very interesting, and my reply is in the form of the Seven Steps to Long Term Investing Success !!
So here goes.  (thanks Srini and Musa).
..

First the question

Dear All,
Need some advise.
I intend to invest some X amount in some select stocks with a holding period of about 8-9 years.
Is it good to leave it untouched till the end of holding period? Or is it advisable to set some yearly target say 20% or so and exit once the target is achieved in a year and wait for some lows to happen to reenter the stock for a target n exit once again and continue this cycle till the end of Holding year.
I don’t know how the above approach of mine sounds, but need you to give me some thoughts on how to go about it.
Regards.
..
Here’s my Answer:
..

the Seven short Steps to Long Term Investing Success

Dear Investor,
This is a pretty good question.
The investing process I feel you should follow is:
  1. Stock Selection: Obviously, choose your Select Stocks well. Since the holding period is 8-9 years, you need to look closely at the fundamentals. Each stock needs to have an investment thesis (eg. capacity expansion of 200%, or a new product launch that can grow profits 150%) and a price target for a specified period of time like say 2-3 years. These need to be high conviction ideas. Plus good Portfolio thinking is that there should not be an overexposure to any one sector, to reduce overall sector risk.
  2. Investment: Buy the Selected Shares. One way to simplify things is to buy shares of roughly equal monetary value.
  3. Monitor the Stocks: Next these shares need to be monitored. Is the investment thesis being played out in reality? Any external events affecting it? A six monthly review for these Select Stocks may be sufficient.
  4. Minimize Transactions: I would disagree about the 20% annual targets and exit /entry cycle. Good well chosen shares may appreciate even 100% in a good year, yet may still be cheap and worth buying, even at this level, if the 2-3 year outlook still looks good. Every delivery based entry and exit can cost you upto 0.6% of your asset, so transactions should be minimized for long term investments.
  5. Use Dips to Buy: Also the reverse may also happen. The investment thesis may be playing out well, but the share price may have fallen 20%. You need to be patient here, and can even buy more of this stock if you have funds.
  6. Exit Non-Performers: My approach would be to (on Review) sell those Stocks that are not performing on fundamentals as per the investment thesis (this may or may not be reflected in the price performance) and perhaps buy more of those that are performing. There is no shame in admitting mistakes. Even investment greats like Anthony Bolton (I’m reading a great book by him called Investing Against the Tide) talk about a success/ hit rate of 55-60%. The secret is to identify mistakes and reduce losses by exiting fast.
  7. Time in Market: Over the 8-9 years period a good internal price target to have is to get a 20% annualized return for your Select Stocks. But notice that big returns come in a few years and things may be flat to negative for the others. So I prefer “Time in Market” with “Good Stocks” where you will get the returns over time.
Thats it !! I guess many years of investing have helped me give a short and sweet answer.
Sorry for generating Option 3 compared to 1 or 2 asked by you, but this is my recommended approach.
Here’s to your investing success.
(needless to say, revert to me if you need help with choosing stocks and monitoring  Emoji )
Regards, Punit Jain
Bangalore, Founder, JainMatrix Investments
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Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and all stock investments are subject to market risks. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a Financial Adviser. This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. JM has applied for certification under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com