Manpasand Beverages IPO – Natural but Expensive

  • Date 25th June 2015
  • Price range: Rs. 290-320 and IPO Period:  24-26th June 2015
  • Small Cap with Rs 1600 cr Mkt Cap 
  • Industry – FMCG
  • Advice: High Risk, Expensive, Avoid

Manpasand Beverages is a small fruit drinks manufacturer based in Vadodara. It had FY14 revenues of Rs 294 crores and profits 20.4 cr. The market potential of this segment looks attractive. However, the segment is dominated by well-known Indian and MNC brands. The challenges extend to capacity creation and launch of several new brands and products. IPO pricing is aggressive (PE of 86-95 times) and leaves little on the table for investors in the short to medium term. Investors can avoid this IPO.

Here is a note on the Manpasand Beverages (MAP) IPO.

IPO highlights

  • The IPO is open from 24-26th June 2015 with Issue Price band: Rs. 290-320 per share
  • It’s a fresh Issue of 1.25 cr. shares of Face Value: Rs.10 per share
  • Each lot size is 45 shares and it can be bought in multiples of 45 shares
  • Shares offered as portion of equity post issue: ~25%. Post IPO the mkt cap will be ~1600 cr.
  • The promoter will sell 17% stake, while SAIF Partners and Aditya Birla Equity will sell 7% and 1%.
  • The amount proposed to be raised is Rs.400 cr. The IPO proceeds will be used for:
    • A new mfg. facility in Haryana for Rs 153.3 cr.,
    • Repayment of borrowings of Rs 100.9 cr
    • Modernization of mfg facilities at Vadodra and Varanasi at a cost of Rs.38.8 cr.
    • The rest is for a new corporate office at Vadodara, Gujarat, corporate purposes and exits by investors.

Introduction

  • Manpasand Beverages is a manufacturer and seller of fruit drinks based in Vadodra, Gujarat.
  • FY14 revenues were Rs 294 crores and profits 20.4 cr.
  • The mango based fruit drink ‘Mango Sip’ is the flagship brand and contributes 87% of sales. It caters to customers from semi urban and rural markets.
  • The distribution network of MAP includes 73 consignee agents and 654 distributors spread across 24 states. Also, MAP sells directly to Indian Railways Catering and Tourism Organization (IRCTC).
  • Dhirendra Singh, Chairman of MAP has 15 years experience in this industry. He is the also on the board for group entities like Manpasand Snacks and Beverages Ltd and Xcite Nutrition’s Private Ltd.
  • Recently the company launched two new brands, “Fruits Up” and “Manpasand ORS”. Manpasand ORS was launched with a view to capture the North East market.
JainMatrix Investments, Manpasand Beverages

Fig 1a – Revenue Segments (above) and Fig 1b – Brands

Business and News Updates  

  • Capacity: MAP has three factories that are currently manufacturing its products located in Vadodara and Varanasi including a new facility in Vadodara commencing production this April. The combined capacity for manufacturing is 40,000 Tetra Pak Cases/ day and 65,000 PET Bottle Cases/ day for fruit drinks and 15,000 PET Bottle Cases/ day for carbonated fruit drinks.
  • MAP has acquired and signed an MoU for a manufacturing facility at Dehradun. However it is yet to commence production.
  • MAP would require efficient working capital management as the soft drinks industry requires enough working capital to be able to procure and process payments for raw materials.
  • The MAP IPO has seen a 5% subscription on day 1.

Industry Outlook

  • The overall soft drinks market in India saw aggregate sales worth Rs 65,330 crores in the year 2014. The main segments constituting the soft drinks market in India are carbonates, juices and bottled water, which together accounted for over 99% of the total volumes sold in 2014.
  • About 75% of the total mango drinks market is controlled by Coca-Cola’s Maaza, Pepsico’s Slice and Parle Agro’s Frooti. Other players are Hershey’s India (Jumpin), Dabur (Real), Hector Beverages (Paperboat Aamras), Surya Food and Agro (Priyagold) and Scandic Foods (Sil).
  • Based on the industry data, MAP has a 3% market share of the packaged juices market of India.

Financials of Manpasand beverages

  • Revenues and EBITDA have been growing consistently, see Fig 2.
  • However PAT and EPS have been declining since Mar 2013.
  • Note – Mar-15 results are a simple projection of actual 9 month financials reported by MAP.
  • MAP is a profit making operation as of today but does not have free cash flows since the last few years. See Fig 3.
  • Profits and Free Cash flows appear to be stretched due to high competition, expansion costs and high capital expenditure.
JainMatrix Investments, Manpasand Beverages IPO

Fig 2 – Manpasand Beverages Financials

JainMatrix Investments, Manpasand Beverages

Fig 3 – Manpasand Cash Flows and Debt

Positives for Manpasand Beverages/ IPO offering

  • MAP is focusing on a market which is not well served i.e. semi urban and rural areas. Hence the company could see a good rise in the sales in the upcoming years
  • Rising Income Levels – In the last decade, Indian economy has progressed rapidly. With the progress of the economy, India’s per capita GDP (constant price) has gone up from Rs. 32,037 in 2005-06 to Rs. 46,555 in 2011-12, fuelling a consumption boom in the country. (Source: CARE Report). Thus demand for MAP products should continue to grow.
  • MAP has achieved net profit margins (5% approx) which would help them sustain in the long run in the FMCG sector.
  • MAP is building its own brands and this can be a powerful asset for long term growth.
  • They are growing beyond their flagship ‘Mango Sip’ product and launching a clutch of new products, which may grow their business rapidly in future.

Internal Risks

  • MAP heavily depends on its mango based fruit drink “Mango Sip‟ product which contributed 87% of its net sales for FY2014.
  • MAP had negative free cash flows in the past and this may continue in the next few years. MAP’s operations are cash intensive, and business is worse off due to high working capital needs.
  • A few group entities like Manpasand Snacks and Beverages and Xcite Nutrition’s Pvt have incurred losses in the preceding fiscal years which could be a drain on MAP’s resources.
  • MAP’s business is affected by seasonal variations like reduced demand in winter, and peak sales in summer. These variations could worsen due to a cool summer or a bad monsoon season.
  • MAP sources their tin can packaged products and 500 ml PET packaged “Fruits Up‟ drink from third party facilities and so MAP needs to maintain stringent quality controls with these partner/ vendors.

External Risks

  • A slowdown in economic growth in India could adversely impact MAP’s business.
  • The recent Nestle Maggie events highlight challenges in food packaging and labelling, and govt approvals. Compliance on these matters has to be ensured.
  • There is intense competition in this category with the presence of MNCs and large Indian business houses in the drinks segments. MAP as a small player has to build its niche and not directly compete.

Benchmarking

JainMatrix Investments, Manpasand Beverages

Fig 4 – Manpasand Beverages Benchmarking

  • PE and P/B valuations look stretched even compared to industry leaders like Britannia and Nestle.
  • Sales and profit growth look impressive. Net profit margin for MAP is almost at par with Britannia Industries, which indicates the company’s long term sustainability within the FMCG sector.
  • Overall, for a small company starting off, MAP is doing well, but needs to sustain its momentum.

Overall Opinion

  • The consumption theme in India is very powerful, and will play out over the next few years as income and education levels improve. Within this overall consumption theme, the food segment stands out as both a daily essential as well as an aspirational category.
  • Fruit based drinks is certainly a high potential consumption area with good prospects. Demand is likely to grow faster for fruit drinks than for colas and non-natural drink products.
  • MAP even with its niche rural and semi urban market, today faces intense competition, high costs of brand launches and planned capacity expansion.
  • It may take another 3-4 years to have free positive cash flows from operations.
  • Pricing of the IPO is aggressive, and the high valuations in terms of P/E (86-95 times) and P/B leaves little on the table for investors.
  • Investors should avoid this IPO.

JAINMATRIX KNOWLEDGE BASE:

Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. JM has no known financial interests in Manpasand Beverages Ltd or any related firm. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. JM has applied for certification under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Godrej Consumer Products

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Godrej Consumer Products, JainMatrix Investments

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Britannia Ind. – A Ready to Eat Investment

_________________________________________________________________

  • 03-Feb-2014
  • CMP: Rs 880
  • Mid Cap – Mkt Cap 10,500 crores

JainMatrix Investments has published a report on Britannia Industries for its Subscribers. A partial report is available below. Edited from it are Product Overview, Risk factors, Bench-marking, Financial Projections and 2 year target prices for BIL stock. The JainMatrix Investment service is available for a subscription fee.

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Here is a note on Britannia Industries (BIL).

Britannia Industries is a leading Indian food processing firm, making biscuits, dairy products and bakery items like cakes, rusks and breads. This firm has seen a turnaround since 2010, with fair revenue growth, but excellent margin improvements. The ongoing initiatives in manufacturing capacity addition, sales team synergies and ‘nutrition’ oriented product launches should see BIL emerge as a premium food giant. Buy. 

Business Profile

  • Britannia Industries (BIL) is a Bangalore based firm selling bakery and dairy products. Started in 1892, it is one of the largest food processing firms in India.
  • Sales turnover in FY13 was Rs 5,615 crores and PAT is 233.9 cr. Sales have grown 7.5% (CAGR) over the last 5 years. Market Cap is 10,500 cr., ranked 3rd in India in the food processing industry.

  • BIL has 30-33% biscuit market share in India, and a reach of 36 lakh retail outlets across the country. It has about 2190 employees.
  • The shareholding pattern is: Promoters-50.8%, FII’s-19.1%, Individuals/HNI-17.2%, FIs/Insurance-5.6%, MFs-4% and Bodies Corporate 3.3%.
  • Key executives are: Chairman Nusli Wadia, MD Vinita Bali, and COO Varun Berry.
Britannia Business Segments, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Business Segments, JainMatrix Investments

Click on any graphic in report to see in full size.

Britannia Key Brands, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – Key Brands, JainMatrix Investments

  • BIL’s products are high volume food products. It has a large distribution network reaching ~36 lakh outlets, with more than 40% of the consumption in rural India.
  • Economic Times Brand Equity placed BIL among the top 10 trusted brands of India.

Recent Events and Strategies

  • BIL is adding production capacities, and also reducing the dependence on contract manufacturing. To manufacture its own products, BIL has spent nearly Rs 300 cr to add capacities, much of which was earlier outsourced. Three new plants have come up in Bihar, Odisha and Gujarat. These plus one in TN will take the total plants owned by BIL to 12. These will take care of 50% of the company’s manufacturing needs, with the rest coming from contract manufacturers.
  • BIL is planning to set up another wholly owned subsidiary for baked goods in Tamil Nadu, to serve South Indian markets, at an estimated cost of Rs 100 crores in early 2015.
  • BIL is also driving innovation across the existing categories and has strengthened its R&D for this.
  • Synergies were created through integration of the bakery and dairy sales and distribution system.
  • Increased distribution of more high-priced products in urban areas, at the same time concentrating on rural areas is going to be the company’s primary objective for the FY14, according to company’s COO Varun Barry, which should help BIL grow sales by 15% in FY14.
  • MD Vinita Bali is set to exit the company in March’14 and will be succeeded by COO Mr. Varun Barry. The latter is already head of the India operations. He is also undertaking a management restructuring, to make the top team smaller and more focused.  

Stock Evaluation, Performance and Returns

  • The price and dividend history is detailed in Fig 3. There was a split in Face Value (10 to 2) in 2010.
  • Post 2010 BIL has started a sharp uptrend. Investors in BIL over the last 5 years have seen a return on 25% CAGR on the share price. In the past 1 year itself, the share has appreciated over 60%.
  • Revenues have grown at 15.7% of CAGR in the past 4 years. The EBITDA and PAT have grown at 7.9% and 6.7% respectively in this period.
  • The all-time high of 972 was hit in Oct 2013. It is at 9.5% below these levels.  
Britannia Price History, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – Price History, JainMatrix Investments

Britannia Quarterly Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – Quarterly Financials, JainMatrix Investments

  • The EPS has increased by 6.7% CAGR over the last 5 years – Fig 4. However post the losses of Mar’10, the recovery has been rapid. Dividend too has followed a similar pattern. The reasons for this are a combination of volumes growth and better margins.
  • Standalone Free Cash Flow has been positive for the last 5 years (Fig 5), this is positive. It allows the firm to reinvest in the business or reward shareholders. Dividend too has increased. Yield is 1%.
Britannia Cash Flow, Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – Cash Flow, Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

Britannia Price PE Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – Price PE Chart, JainMatrix Investments

  • The P/E after FY11 has been in the 26-40 range, Fig 6. At 31 times today it’s in the low-end of this.
  • We can see the recent surge in EPS – Fig 7. The Price of BIL has been tracking EPS growth. The EPS now is in the channel indicated in the Chart.
Britannia Price EPS Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 7 – Price EPS Chart, JainMatrix Investments

  • Other relevant consolidated financial parameters –
  • ROCE and RONW are 44.5% and 46.7%, both excellent numbers
  • BIL has just 24 cr. of equity capital; there is a good chance of bonus, split, dividend increase or other shareholder reward if performance continues to excel.
  • Debt equity fell from 0.61 (FY13) to 0.3 (Q1FY14), indicating a fast improving Balance Sheet.
  • PEG at 0.4 indicates undervalued status.

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendation

  • Buy 

JainMatrix Investments has published a report on Britannia Industries for its Subscribers. A partial report is available below. Edited from it are Product Details, Risk factors, Bench-marking, Financial Projections and 2 year target prices for BIL stock. The JainMatrix Investment Service is available for a subscription fee.

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Consumer Sector – Who leads the FMCG pack?

Date: June 7, 2012

The comparison of four leading FMCG / Consumer stocks, ITC, HUL, Godrej Consumer and Asian Paints throws up some interesting insights. ITC is keeping up excellent margins while investing in 4-5 newer areas beyond cigarettes. HUL has the best brands, but is seeing growth constraints. Asian Paints is a dominator in Paints and has good international presence. But the surprise packet is from the smallest player. Godrej Consumer is growing through acquisitions and international business, and has the best financials. 

Introduction

This research looks at four firms from the FMCG sector and finds out the best for the long-term investor. In this report, we research two blue chips, Hindustan Unilever, the FMCG bellwether, and ITC, which is a conglomerate, but mostly a cigarette firm. And also two large caps, Godrej Consumer and Asian Paints.  (They will be referred to as HUL, ITC, GC and AP).

Five Year Snapshot of Key Financials

Let us first look at a 5-year snapshot of financials of the firms. This can give us good visual feel of the relative and absolute financials of the firms.

Hindustan Unilever:

Business Snapshot:

  • The Indian subsidiary of Unilever is 52.5% owned by parent firm.
  • Business can be classified as Foods, Personal care and Home care. Major Brands include Lux, Lifebuoy, Surf, Rin, Wheel, Fair & Lovely, Pond’s, Lakmé, Pepsodent, Closeup, Axe, Brooke Bond, etc.
  • The 16,000 Indian employees manage 2,000 suppliers and 2,900 stockists to ensure product distribution and direct coverage of 15 lakh Retail outlets and indirect coverage of another 64 lakh.
  • Business is a function of population penetration and affluence and is growing faster in rural areas.
HUL Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – HUL Financials, JainMatrix Investments, Click to enlarge image

Financial Snapshot

  • Revenues, EBITDA and PAT have gained by 8%, 26% and 7% CAGR over 5 years.
  • P/E has moved in a range of 17-33 times. Current P/E is at 32.4 times.
  • Operating margins are excellent at 27%. Profit margins are flat at 12%.
  • Dividend has been increased to 750%, or Rs 7.5, indicating a dividend yield of 1.8%.
  • PEG is at 4.1 – indicates clearly overvalued status.

ITC Ltd

Business Snapshot:

  • The firm is owned by Indian Institutions, who hold 52% of the firm.
  • Business segments in ’11 were Cigarettes 44%, FMCG 18%, Agri 20%, Paper/ Packaging 14% and hotels 4%.
  • Dominates Indian Cigarettes market, with a reach of 2 million outlets.
  • Attempting to diversify from cigarettes into other segments.
ITC Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – ITC Financials, JainMatrix Investments, Click to enlarge image

Financial Snapshot

  • Revenues, EBITDA and PAT have gained by 15%, 22% and 19% CAGR over 5 years.
  • P/E has moved in a range of 15-31 times. Current P/E is at 29 times.
  • Operating margins and Profit margins are superior at 43% and 23%.
  • Dividend has been increased to 450%, or Rs 4.5, indicating a dividend yield of 1.9%.
  • PEG is at 1.54 – indicates somewhat overvalued status.

Godrej Consumer 

Business Snapshot:

  • The promoter group Godrej owns 64% of GC.
  • It has Household and Personal Care Products brands like Good Knight, Cinthol, Godrej No1, etc.
  • The revenues by categories are Personal Wash 22%, Hair Care 19%, Home care 47% and Others 12%.
  • Growth has been organic, as well as by acquisition, in India as well as Internationally. GC has international operations in Europe, Australia, Canada, Africa and the Middle East.
Fig 3 - GodrejConsumer Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – GodrejConsumer Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Financial Snapshot

  • Revenues, EBITDA and PAT have gained by 45%, 55% and 47% CAGR over 5 years.
  • P/E has moved in a range of 20-27 times. Current P/E is at 26 times.
  • Operating margins and Profit margins are good at 26% and 15%.
  • Dividend has been increased to 475%, or Rs 4.75, indicating a dividend yield of 0.82%.
  • PEG is at 0.55 – indicates attractive undervalued status.

Asian Paints:

Business Snapshot:

  • The promoter group of Choksi, Dani, etc. own 53% of AP.
  • Group operations are in 17 countries with consumers in 65, through JVs and subsidiaries.
  • Major Product Segments are Automotive, Home, Industrial and Paint related Services.
Asian Paints Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – Asian Paints Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Detailed Comparison

Next we will look at a detailed comparison of the firms in terms of valuation, growth characteristics, debt, shareholding pattern, etc.

Comparison Table, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – Comparison Table, JainMatrix Investments

We can see from this analysis that on 5 important parameters:

  • Valuation – ITC is the cheapest, AP the most expensive
  • Growth – GC leads on Sales and Profits
  • Management effectiveness – HUL leads
  • Solvency and Margins – ITC clearly leads, as debt is low across the sector.
  • Market performance – AP and GC split the honors

The Decision Table:

We compare the 5-year CAGR growth across key parameters: (Price, PE and Mkt Cap are of June 6, ‘12)

Sector Decision Table, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – Sector Decision Table, JainMatrix Investments

Conclusions:

1.       Among Large Caps, ITC is better

  • ITC leads HUL, as ITC has superior Operating and profit margins. In terms of valuation, ITC is cheaper. Also on margins, it is better. HUL is superior on Management effectiveness.
  • ITC leads on the 5-year growth on financials.
  • ITC dominates cigarettes and commands great margins here. It has been using this to invest in an array of new growth sectors, this is bearing fruit and will drive future performance.

2.       Among the mid-large caps Godrej Consumer is better

  • GC leads over AP because: While GC and AP share honors for market performance, but on all other parameters, GC leads AP – Operating & Profit Margins, Lower valuations and Revenue, EBITDA, PAT & EPS growth.
  • GC has a smaller market cap than AP, about half. GC is present in many more product categories, and has far more room to grow.

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Hindustan Unilever – Too much euphoria?

Date: May 22, ’12                  CMP: 424      Mkt Cap 91,900 cr.      PE 33.4

HUL is the bellwether in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), and its performance indictes the directions for the industry. The current market cap of 91,900 crore ranks it #13 in India.

HUL declared FY12 revenues of 23,247 crores in May, a 21% rise in net profits for the March quarter YoY and strong momentum in sales. Nitin Paranjpe, widely perceived as a strong leader, has been reappointed MD & CEO for another five years.

Lets do a quick analysis of this stock to see where its heading.

Pricing Snapshot

A 5-year view of the share price of HUL shows us:

HUL Price History, JainMatrix Investments

HUL Price History, JainMatrix Investments – Click to enlarge

  • Share price has risen 16% CAGR over the last 5 years.
  • The all time high of 439 occurred recently in May 2012. Today it is within 4% of this peak.

Financial Snapshot

  • Revenues, EBITDA and PAT have gained by 10.2%, 22% and 8% CAGR over 5 years.
  • P/E has moved in a range of 17-33 times. Currently P/E is near its peak.
  • Operating margins are excellent at 27%. Profit margins are flat at 12%.
  • Dividend has increased to 750%, or Rs 7.5, giving a dividend yield of 1.77%.
  • PEG is at 4.18 – indicates overvalued status.
HUL Financials - JainMatrix Investments

HUL Financials – JainMatrix Investments – Click to enlarge

Conclusion

  • HUL share has shot up from 240 to current 424 levels in the last 2 years. Reasons for this:
    • HUL has rebounded from poor results in FY10.
    • After posting good results for FY12, HUL has appreciated a lot this month.
    • HUL is considered a defensive stock, and is popular in the current bearish markets.
  • Today it is at its upper end of the valuation range. However the profit growth rates cannot support this valuation for long.
  • The fundamentals indicate that HUL is today an overpriced stock. Investors need to exit at these levels.

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Disclaimer:

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

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