Category: Daily Analysis

In defense of the Indian IT industry

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Musings on the IT Sector

An Article

I came across an interesting article from a well known national daily entitled Jobs, pain and the world of IT.

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-business/jobs-pain-and-the-world-of-it/article5517002.ece

Its an article that’s critical of the IT industry practices and highlights a couple of problems. It expresses a certain point of view.

Response

I would like to voice my thoughts on reading this article. Disclosure – I used to work in large Indian IT sector firms till 1.5 years ago. So I do know some things that happen here.

  • Every success will face some amount of skepticism and criticism. Certainly this article is one such.
  • This industry also has people from the real world working in it, so there will be many real situations, some described in this article.
  • In every industry anywhere, also in India, there will be some friction between Promoter/ management and employees. This is natural. The former may be paid 3-10 times more than the latter. Infosys at one point was very employee friendly and decided that this ratio will not go too high.
Computers Monitor

Computers Monitor (Photo credit: yum9me)

  •  Resources: The main resource for the IT industry is intellectual capital/ employees. Even now, revenues are generally proportional to the number of employees. An important activity for an IT company is hiring and this is based on internal demand projections. Certainly many firms have gone wrong here and found that campus hiring done in Oct of one year was excessive compared to business demand in the second year, 12-18 months later, as the environment has changed. This should be handled properly and painlessly by any firm, and I cannot comment on any specific event or firm.
  • The Visa challenge: Getting Visas today is a very complex issue is for an IT company. It is critical to get a visa in order to get any work done abroad, yet every country has complex laws and rules, costs and rejection rates. Hundreds of employees in India in one project depend on 4-5 visas for onsite visits. And now countries are making it tougher to get this. I would not say that the IT sector is threatened. But there can be a 20-30% costs rise for Indian IT firms if certain countries carry out a visa revamp and clamp down.
  • Work environment: If one company ‘tightly controlled’ lives of its US based employees, it needs to be handled by the employees there. All of us in large companies face some work environment challenges. The treatment of foreign postings as a limited period incentive by firms does not sound like a serious freedom violation to me.
  • Rigidly exploitative. 14 hour work schedules. Tough words. But in return the employees get salaries that are 10 times the national per capita average of 55,000 Rs/ year. Plus good learning. Plus foreign visits. India is a free country. We are all searching for a dream employer who pays well for 8 hours of easy work, right?

Opinion

  • My opinion is that the IT sector has over the last 20 years provided Indians lucrative employment, sometimes fabulous riches, and companies worldwide wonderful, quality services that they are willing to pay top dollar for.
  • And the Indian government must learn how to understand, nurture and grow industries while at the same time setting standards for employee/ labor conditions.

Read some of my reports on the IT Sector:

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BHEL – a Power Value Play

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BHEL

CMP – 175

BHEL has met and exceeded expectations of upside from the recommendation made at Rs 116 levels.

It also has a long way to go on the upside too.

JainMatrix Investments's avatarJainMatrix Investments

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  • Date 7-Aug-13
  • CMP: Rs 116
  • Large Cap – Mkt Cap 28,300 crores
  • Advice: Buy with a 2-3 year perspective

Here is a short note on BHEL (Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd)

JainMatrix Investments

Introduction

  • BHEL is an integrated power plant equipment manufacturing and implementation firm.
  • Its turnover in FY2013 was 48,000 crores, with profits at 6,600 cr. It has achieved Maharatna PSU status in 2013, which allows it greater operational freedom. Market Capitalization today is 28,300 cr, at CMP 116.
  • The manufacturing capacity is now 20,000 MW per annum, highest among all power-equipment vendors in India. It has a 59% share in Indian installed generating capacity contributing 69% to the total power generated.
  • Orders booked backlog is 1,10,000 cr, which is 2.3 times current revenue. This should tide it through the current slowdown. Core business is slow today but the manufacturing and execution strengths are immense.
  • Business is from sectors like Power Generation and Transmission…

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Just Dial Ltd – A Googol Possibilities

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  • Report Date: 18-Dec-2013 
  • CMP: Rs 1215
  • Mid Cap – Mkt Cap 8200 crores
  • Advice:  Medium Risk, High Gain stock. BUY.

JainMatrix Investments presents investors the complete report on Just Dial Ltd. as part of the Investor Rewards Fortnight. 

Here is a note on Just Dial Ltd. (JDL).

Business Profile

  • JDL is a firm with a 16 year legacy in Indian business listings. It started with phone based queries and Yellow pages, and now extends to internet, mobile apps, voice and text (sms) based search.
  • This Bombay based firm had FY2013 financials of Revenue 363 cr., EBIDTA 101 cr. and Profits 68 cr. The number of employees is currently 8,200 up 32% from FY12.
  • JDL generated 36.4 crore search requests in FY13. It currently has a database of 101 lakh business listings and has executed 2.4 lakh Paid Campaigns. Usage of JDL has increased by an average of 43% year over year till FY2013. See details in Fig 1.
  • Explanation of Title – The word “googol,” is a mathematical term for 1 followed by 100 zeros, which inspired the word Google. Our opinion is that JDL can become very successful, like Google Inc.
  • The founders cum management of JDL are MD – V.S.S. Mani, and Executive Director – V. Krishnan.
Usage of JDL Business Listings by user type, and nature of Growth, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Just Dial Business Listings Usage, JainMatrix Investments. Click image to enlarge

  • JDL is India focused and has offices in Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chandigarh, Chennai, Coimbatore, Delhi, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Kolkata and Pune.
  • Current shareholding is of Promoters 33%, FII 22%, VCs/MFs 6%, Non Institutional are Foreign Bodies 35%, Individuals 3% and Others 1%. Venture funding Investors in JDL include SAIF Partners, Sequoia Capital, Tiger Global, EGCS and SAP Ventures.

Additional Business Notes and Updates

  • JDL has a hotline number of 088-8888 8888 across India, accessible 24X7 with multi-lingual support. This is a strong advantage for the Phone search services.
  • The mobile search is by means of applications developed for Android, Blackberry and iOS platforms and location based service for mobile Internet users.
  • JDL allows users to rate and review business listing. This helps in improving the Trust factor in purchasing decisions. JDL users have contributed over 33 million reviews so far.
  • JDL has launched ‘Search Plus Services’ or transaction-enabled services. This extends the vanilla offering of providing information on the contact numbers and details of various establishments. Almost all listings will be extended to transactions. This business will generate fixed fee and commission on sales. See Fig 1.
Search Plus Services, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – Just Dial – Search Plus Services, JainMatrix Investments

  • A personal Note: I downloaded the Android version and was quite impressed with the ease of use, simple flow for addition to business listings and elegant search interface. On adding a business listing, I was pleasantly surprised to get a call from Sales within a few hours.
  • The index compiler FTSE says it will include JDL in its FTSE All Cap index, effective from the start of trading on December 23. This will give a boost to this firm’s share price and widen shareholding.
  • Employee Break-up: JDL has 8,213 employees as of September 30, 2013, of which 2,150 employees are answering calls; 3,900 employees are in sales and marketing division, of which 3,000 are in tele sales and around 1,000 are feet on street. It also has around 600 people in its evangelist program. Rest are in technology, database and other departments. This is good. The focus currently is on service and business development.

Pricing Snapshot

  • JDL had its IPO this year in June 2013 priced at Rs 530. It got subscribed 12 times, a very good success this year. It raised Rs 927 crores, and Promoters and early Equity investors were richly rewarded.
  • Post listing it has appreciated an amazing 130% in the last 6 months. The all-time high so far is 1440 achieved on 20th Nov 2013. Today it is at 16% below this.

Financial Snapshot

  • The Revenues, EBITDA and Profits have appreciated by 43%, 70% and 73% CAGR over the last 5 years.
  • The chart Fig 3 – JDL Financials, shows the margin improvement over the last few years.

(Note that the projected FY14 data in Fig 3 is a simple doubling of the financials of the first half of the year. This is conservative and is by no means a projection based on business prospects. For that see Fig 5).

Just Dial - Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – Just Dial – Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Just Dial - Cash Flow, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – Just Dial – Free Cash Flow, JainMatrix Investments

  • The firm has been Operational cash positive over the last 5 years. However to grow, it has to invest in its business. This investment has accelerated in the last 2 years. This is excellent, and such investments will bear fruit in future. Some of the funds raised from the IPO too are being usefully deployed. See Fig 4.
  • The firm has been debt free over the last few years, drawing funds instead from Private Equity investors to bankroll growth until this IPO.
  • P/E calculated based on simple projections for FY14 is at 75 times, an increase from about 50 times at the time of IPO. And Price/ Book is 20 times.
  • The PEG is 1.0, this indicates fair value at current levels.
  • A ratio used to measure Internet companies is Price/ Sales. The P/S of JDL is 22.
  • The current valuations appear high until we see the Positives below.

Financial Projections

Here are the financial projections for JDL.

Just Dial - Financial Projections, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – Just Dial – Financial Projections, JainMatrix Investments

Positives for JDL

  • Smartphone usage in India is growing rapidly, and with it mobile internet access.
  • JDL Profits have grown at 73% CAGR in the last 5 years.
  • The Usage growth has been very high, particularly on PC internet and Mobile internet. The mobile launch was done recently, and it appears a good success.
  • Search Plus services will help monetize the listings, adding to revenue flows from both the Paid Campaigns, and Sales. Thus JDL is extending from an Advertising business into the eCommerce space.
  • Also the eCommerce model is excellent – the focus is on transactions and the inventory/ fulfillment is done by the businesses. Thus JDL has an asset light eCommerce model, which is less challenging financially and commands good margins.
  • Good growth potential: The paid listings or campaigns currently are around 2.4 lakh, which is just 2.4 % of their total business listings and a very small fraction of the total SME population of India, estimated by them at 3.12 crore. Thus there is a good visible growth potential.

Risks and Concerns

  • Profit imperative: At current sky high P/E of 75 times, JDL profits need to continue to grow at 74% or higher, to justify these. Any slip up may result in a sharp fall in the share price.
  • Intense competition: Competitors in the online local business search segment include Sulekha, asklaila, Getit, ZatSe, AskMe and even Google India. It also faces competition from portals such as Zomato and burrp in food segment, and OLX, Quikr and others in the Classifieds. In eCommerce there are players like Amazon, Flipkart, and many national and global players. Thus it is an intensely competitive sector, even though the business is quite new and an emerging sector.
  • Brand issues: The name Just Dial is a good brand, but there is some dissonance as they have extended beyond phone calls. At some stage JDL may need to modify this and extend their brand.
  • Promoter holding is low at 33%. This can be a weakness in case there is a takeover bid or clash with institutional shareholders on any issue.
  • Employee costs: With over 8,200 employees, the largest element of costs is Employee Costs, at 49.5% of revenues. Going forward, JDL will need to carefully match its workforce with business, as employee costs can rapidly bloat up over time as rising fixed costs. Once the business plans stabilize, the focus will need to shift to productivity and automation rather than large scale hiring.
  • With an IPO just this year, there is not enough financial and share price data history available on JDL to build investor confidence in its numbers and business.
  • In addition JDL share has seen very high volatility with sharp intra-day price swings.

Overall Opinion

  • Just Dial is a very unique business in India with a combination of excellent listing database, strong local reach and good monetization activities rolling out. In sync with current trends, it is following the consumer well and growing in mobile and PC internet.
  • It has achieved a certain critical mass and reach in its sector. External conditions are also right with the TV and Print industries mature and stabilized. JDL may be able to attract significant advertising and marketing rupees to its services.
  • Sky high current valuations are actually an affirmation of its uniqueness, high growth prospects and attractiveness to professional investors such as FIIs and Venture capital funds.
  • Experienced, visionary and ambitious Promoters have built the firm are also driving the next phase of growth.
  • JDL is a good growth stock. Advice:  Medium Risk, High Gain stock. BUY.

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

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Disclosure: It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it.

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Disclaimer and Disclosure:

It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it. Punit Jain has owned (long only) Just Dial Ltd. since Nov 2013. Further, this document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent Financial Expert/ Advisor. Either JM or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Future Gazing – Business and the Internet of Things

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Introduction

The original Factors of business and production were Money, Materials, Machines and Men.  They still are, but with a few big changes caused by – the Services sector, the Internet of Things and the Smartphone. In this article, let’s engage in some present and future gazing, and discuss the changes in these Factors:

Money

We can already see how money has been transformed over the last few years. At the click of a button, money moves across continents. In India we have a partially convertible currency. Even so this affects Indian investors:

International Currency Money for Forex Trading

International Currency Money

  1. Our stock exchanges seem to be powered by FII money, rather than domestic funds (as of now). The US Fed’s quantitative easing program and its expected taper, may change both sentiment and actual flow of money.
  2. FDI is a good source of long-term investments into the Indian economy. China famously attracted massive FDI over the last decade, powering an exports and manufacturing boom. FDI needs to perk up in India.
  3. The banking collapse of 2008 in USA, and its influence on the Indian market is a grim reminder of the global effects of US money problems. 
  4. Plastic (and virtual) money today is a massive change at an early phase. Within the country, transfers and payments are becoming faster, cheaper, efficient and traceable. It’s conceivable that in a few years even small change transactions will be fulfilled using Cards.
  5. RBI has done a good job of bringing the country closer financially. Banks talk to each other, and services are delivered in a uniform way. This needs to improve through banking sector growth and innovation.
  6. The next, and complex task is to track and bring black money into the system. To do this, the government needs to encourage and reward transparency and disclosures. Will it bite the bullet? Its to be seen.

Materials

While a lot of the materials we use are the same as decades ago, like Fuels and Commodities, there is a small but growing element of R&D driven new materials. These power advances in Space and Defense sectors, and can soon diffuse into our daily lives. One example is usage of plastics, aluminium and carbon in automobiles. Another is mixing ethanol with Petrol, a green innovation. And 3D printing. Solar power is now almost comparable in total cost to that from fossil fuels, due to improvements in fuel cell materials and manufacture.

Machines (and Computers, Applications and Mobiles)

A couple of decades ago Machine meant tools and devices used in factories. Now things have changed:

  1. The Services sectors have taken off, with 60% of the Indian economy from Services. These of course extend across Agriculture, Retail, IT and BPO, Tourism, Construction, etc. So instead of the Machine, the tool of creation could now be a shop, a mobile phone or a computer.

    Mobile Phone

    Mobile Phone (Photo credit: johnmuk)

  2. As factory machines improved manufacturing productivity, today computers improve office productivity across the spectrum of firms. From courier boy to CEO, office employees benefit from emails, internet search and use of office applications to do work faster, more accurately and better retrievable.
  3. The cutting edge now is the Internet of Things. This refers to using internet to monitor, maintain and control a range of Machines and devices in our daily personal life, or life at work. While computers and smartphones provide access to this world, machines like Automobiles and airplanes are rapidly becoming totally wired, whose entire data is already available real time. These are just a small step away from full internet based personal access and control.
  4. Internet now permits all this data and services to be accessed remotely – it doesn’t matter if the user is in the same city or another continent. This is an opportunity for Indian businesses, not just IT/ software and BPO but across the board such as Lawyers, CAs, design firms, ad agencies, consumer electronics firms, factory services firms, etc. The question to be asked is – how can internet improve what I want most from my business. This could be service delivery, client communication, satisfaction assessment, machine monitoring and maintenance, logistics tracking, etc. And there could be a superior, cheaper way …..
  5. ERP systems that captured all the business activities and reported and reconciled transactions were a black box to the outside world. They now need to open up. Its safer now. Data storage can be in remote data centers. Better suppliers and vendors are a few clicks away. Collaboration is easier. Customers want to connect with your systems and receive accurate routine information. Service providers can handle your accounting, payroll, HR and IT systems from afar, using the best applications and resources, helping you focus on your core competencies.
  6. The Smartphone is now at the center of innovation. Computer sales have flattened, while smartphones seem to be just taking off. This digital extension of a person is always on, as adaptable as a computer, and new apps and small hardware tweaks are going to push the limits of its utility for years to come. The basic phone, TV, computer, camera and internet are already integrated. Whats Next is that this device will power and control the (personal) internet of things. And the business Internet of Things will not be far behind.

Finally Men

Men (and women) as the creators and users of these new tools of business need to, more than ever before, embrace change. The changes are in new ways of doing things, in new locations where things can be done and in new tools to be used.

  • Creators in the IT industry need to build apps and make solutions. Users need to try out these new ways and new sites and adopt the useful.
A very important business man in an office.

A man in an office.

  • The Social Networking phenomenon has in recent years introduced us to Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter, allowing us to find and communicate with anyone on the globe. Blogging and Support sites allow us to solve our problems using experiences from others to help us along. Google search helps find answers from content accessible online. The Internet of Things is Social Networking extended to devices and things around us. The difference is that on Social networking you laugh, cry, inform and update. With the IoT, you monitor, control, and order the things/ devices. For business, this is very powerful.
  • The basis of this is of course education. More specifically, computer education. The young seem to embrace this effortlessly. Recent experiences showed that young children when exposed to computers for the first time often in a few months learn to use the device quite well for a range of tasks. Without even a teacher to show them how. The older folks will learn more slowly, but this needs to be done.
  • Education is one sector that can be transformed using the computer. A single teacher instead of teaching 30 students in a physical class can teach 200 in a live video streaming session. And 20,000 by creating a packaged video/software module delivered on demand over internet maybe with limited supervisory assistance. The possibilities are limitless, especially given India’s current education and literacy challenges, and the visible demographics.

Conclusion:

The internet boom of 1999 came too fast, promised too much, and burst. Today 14 years later, we are seeing some real benefits. As the Factors of Production have changed, so have the problems we face. But think of the potential windfalls from new solutions. There is no option to innovation.  

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Disclaimer:

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

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Balmer Lawrie – A Steady Boat

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  • 26-Nov-2013
  • CMP: Rs 306
  • Small Cap – Mkt Cap 880 crores
  • Advice: Buy with a 2-3 year perspective

Here is a note on Balmer Lawrie & Co (BLC).

Business Overview

  • BLC is a Public Sector Unit under Ministry of Petroleum and Nat Gas. Based in Kolkata, it is rated at as Mini-Ratna I Public Sector Enterprise, and has 62% shareholding by govt.
BLC - Business Segments (JainMatrix Investments)

Fig 1 – BLC Business Segments (JainMatrix Investments) 

  • The FY13 consolidated revenues were Rs 3018 cr and Profits 167 cr.
  • It is quite diversified into both Services (Travel Agency, Logistics, Oilfield Services) and Products (Steel packaging, Greases & Lubes, Chemicals). It has 7 joint ventures in addition to the main standalone firm and has operations in many countries outside India. There are about 1500 employees.

Pricing Snapshot

The share price history of BLC can be seen below:

BLC Price History, JainMatrix Investments, Click to enlarge

Fig 2 – BLC Price History (JainMatrix Investments) Click for enlarged image

  • Dividends have been increasing every year. Current dividend yield is 5.7%.
  • There was a share bonus issue in 2013 of 3:4. Fig 2 dividend percentage has been adjusted for this.
  • Over the last 5 years the share price low is Rs 115 (Dec 2008) and high is 439 (Nov 2010). Today’s CMP of 306 is 30% below the highs, this gives some comfort in valuations.

Finance Snapshot

  • Steady growth over last 5 years with Revenues and Profits up 10.7% per year. See Fig 3. 
  • A look at the financial chart shows that Revenues, EBITDA and Profits are trending up. The equity base has been unchanged (barring a bonus in 2013), and the EPS also has grown 11.2% annually.
  • The steady and rising profits have been shared with shareholders in the form of Dividends.
BLC Financials, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – BLC Financials (JainMatrix Investments) Click for enlarged image

  • The firm has generated Cash steadily with about 100 cr of cash from operations (standalone) in FY13. Not much investments in new assets is happening, though.
  • There is Rs 412 cr of cash & bank balance with the firm (FY13). Less debt, cash on hand is Rs 214/share.  Looking at the cash on the books, a purchase of a share of 306 only costs us Rs 92.
  • Prospects in terms of future are good. Barring 2-3 Private firms, the Petroleum and Natural Gas sector in India is dominated by PSUs.
  • It is a good candidate for government disinvestment, as the current govt shareholding is in a holding company called Balmer Lawrie Investments.
  • Current P/E reported is 5.29, which is quite low. Price/ Book is 1.42 times.
  • Debt/ Equity is 0.26, which is low.
  • One Risk we perceive is low trading volumes for BLC on the exchanges.

Overall Opinion

  • Very good cash position, and strong balance sheet.
  • BLC is a good value buy at this time. Buy with a 2-3 year perspective
  • Don’t expect sharp share price appreciation, it is a steady stock.
  • However if disinvestment to a strategic partner comes through, it could be a bonanza.

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

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Disclaimer:

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

Investment Note, Nov 2013

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The New Index highs actually seems like the early phase of a new Bull Run

This is an environment where the Indian economy looks sluggish, interest rates and inflation are not coming down. At the same time, the indices are up to the new highs.

Poll: The recent Diwali surge to highs did take people by surprise. A Poll was conducted on this website with the question: As on Oct 8th, with  Sensex at 19,998 and Nifty 5,931, will the Indices rise or fall by Diwali? The results:

A Poll conducted by JainMatrix Investments

A Poll conducted by JainMatrix Investments

In fact the Sensex rose by over 6% to highs by Diwali, before the recent profit booking related fall. It looks like a lot of people got it right, but I noticed that in the first 2 weeks, the mood was very bearish, before recovering.

Outlook: The current surge is driven by the FIIs who seem to prefer India at this stage. In addition, the second half of the year looks better because of:

  1. Effect of good rainfall this year
  2. Stability in banking sector and interest rates, due to RBI actions
  3. Recent Rupee stability against the USD
  4. The Q2FY14 results have been fairly good and held up well.
  5. Certainly the new high of Sensex and Nifty have been achieved at fair valuations, with the Price Earnings of the Nifty stocks at 17.8 times, below a 10 year average of 18.7 times. (NSE data)

As a leading indicator, the market may be telling us not just that it is happy about Diwali, but that the year ahead looks better.

Going forward, the outlook for the exports (particularly IT software), banking and domestic consumption sectors are good. Infrastructure may show a slow recovery.

JainMatrix Investments is pleased to present paying subscribers the Nov update on the JainMatrix Large Cap Portfolio 2013. And the Dec update of the Mid/Small Cap Portfolio 2013. 

While in the near term post Diwali there may be some profit booking, we expect stability and recovery of Indices post that. The Mid and Small cap shares have also exhibited some recovery from beaten down levels. The Indian Retail investor is still wary and yet to enter the market in a big way. This may be an early phase of a bull run.

Risks: The risk factors that we need to watch out for are:

  1. Rising inflation. RBI is quite focussed on this, but how long before we see improvement is unknown.
  2. Fed taper of quantitative easing program, and consequent ‘hot money’ movement back to USA.
  3. Election year populist measures and government fiscal slippages.
  4. Elections start in Nov-Dec 2013 as 5 states of  Chhattisgarh, MP, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Delhi go to Polls. These can be a preview to the 2014 National and other State elections. All these can affect investor sentiment.

The JainMatrix Large Cap Portfolio 2013 captures some of these variables and suggests a long term investment portfolio. The Mid/Small Cap Portfolio 2013 looks at more stock specific investment opportunities.  

The

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Outlook for Diwali 2013

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Oct 8, 2013

Dear Reader,

In 26 days from today, we usher in Diwali 2013. Usually it is analysts who get asked the question on the outlook. Instead, I would ask you the reader to answer this, in terms of a poll.

I am trying to sense the mood, and this will be a useful exercise for us all.

To recap, right now, the indices are at – Sensex – 19,998 and Nifty 5,931. The 5.5 year old Jan 2008 all time highs were – Sensex 21,200 (6% away) and Nifty 6,357 (7% away). For more details, see the MC links of Sensex and Nifty.

Here’s the Diwali Outlook Poll

Instructions

  • You can take this Poll only once
  • Please answer with only one option, including ‘Other’.
  • Feel free to add your comments to this Page.

You can see the results of the Poll so far right away.

Regards,

Punit Jain
www.jainmatrix.com
Bangalore

English: Diwali lamps

English: Diwali lamps (Photo credit: Wikipedia)