Motherson Sumi Systems – Global Auto Ancillary Growth

________________________________________________________________________

  • Report Date: 25 Feb’14
  • Market Price: 220
  • Large Cap – Mkt Cap 19,460 crores
  • Advice: Buy with a Mar’16 target of 451, a 104% appreciation

Motherson Sumi Systems is an Indian auto ancillary firm that is growing rapidly through global acquisitions. It cut its teeth as a Maruti Suzuki vendor, then expanded capabilities, product lines and customer base. In recent years it bought undervalued global plants and rapidly turned them around, and now has operations in 25 countries, supplying to all major auto firms. Revenues, EBITDA and Net profits have grown at 77%, 57% and 20% CAGR over the last 5 years. The current high debt should be reduced soon to comfortable levels. MSS is a BUY at current levels.

Description and Profile

  • Motherson Sumi Systems (MSS) is a Noida UP based Auto Ancillary firm operating in 25 countries.
  • FY13 consolidated Revenues were Rs 25,200 cr, EBITDA 1,798 cr and Net Profit 451 cr.
  • The flagship of the Samvardhana Motherson group, MSS consolidates business with Samvardhana Motherson Peguform (SMP) and Samvardhana Motherson Reflectec (SMR), owns 51% of both. MSS is a JV with Sumitomo Wiring Systems (Japan), and has JVs with Japanese, German and U.K. firms.
  • Vivek Chand Sehgal is the Vice Chairman of MSS. The shareholding pattern in % is: Promoters is 65.6% (Indian 40 & Foreign 25.6) FIIs 17.2, DIIs 7.8, Individuals (Retail/HNI) 5.8, and Others 3.6%.

Business Notes

Business Segments

Fig 1 – Business Segments

  • MSS is a major supplier of components, modules and systems to the auto industry globally. These include Polymer Components, Mirrors, Wiring Harness and Rubber & Metal products. Fig 1.
  • The diversified customer base includes most dominant Auto firms. Fig 2.

Customers

Fig 2 – Excellent Customer Base

  • The company offers products in both automotive and non-automotive segments. However non-automotive is very small at about 2%.
  • In non-automotive segment, the company is the largest supplier to industrial forklifts and material handling manufacturers. It also manufactures and assembles water purifier for HUL in India.

Strategies and Events

  • MSS has strong customer relationships and is focused on increasing its Content Per Car. It is mostly the OEM supplier, and this simplifies the Auto company’s vendor management process.
  • Revenues from overseas operations in MSS consolidated grew to 83% (FY13) from 66% (FY11). MSS expanded its global operations and acquired undervalued assets, with 9 acquisitions in 10 years.
  • Post-acquisition of loss making auto ancilliary assets, the MSS management was extremely focused on a plant by plant turnaround, which has been the main reason for MSS success.
  • But the international focus hasn’t hurt the company’s local operations, which are growing fast and setting up new plants. MSS is a key supplier to Hyundai, Maruti Suzuki, M&M and Tata Motors. The domestic auto sector slump did not affect it as exports posted a 25% growth.
  • MSS has an excellent de-risking strategy – the growth should happen such that no Single Customer, Single Country or Single Commodity should constitute more than 15% of the turnover.
  • According to the plan of MSS, by 2015 the company will become a $5b company, increase the global presence to 27 countries, and achieve a ROCE of 40%. It is already close to achieving many of these targets.
  • In May’12, an IPO of Samvardhana Motherson Finance, a group firm, was withdrawn due to poor investor response. MSS is the only India listed firm from this group.

Stock Evaluation, Performance and Returns

The price history of MSS is mapped here.

  • After the 2008 economic slowdown MSS share price fell to a low of 25. It has been on a steady recovery path to a recent Feb 2014 price of 231.
  • In 5 years, the share price has appreciated at 50% CAGR, providing excellent returns to investors.
  • Three bonus issues in the last 7 years (and 4 in last 10) have also accelerated the returns.

Financials

Fig 3 – Quarterly Sales, Margins and EPS

  • Revenues, EBITDA and Net profits have grown at 77%, 57% and 20% CAGR over the last 5 years.
  • The quarterly financials of MSS Fig 3, reveal periodic surges in revenues, due to new acquisitions. In 2009, Visiocorp became a part of MSS (renamed SMR). In 2011, Peguform was acquired (SMP).
  • Margins are on recovery path, along with a massive growth in volumes, reflecting in the adjusted EPS.
  • MSS has been investing heavily in its operations, Fig 4, even so it is enjoying good Cash flow from Operation, and a positive Free Cash Flow.
  • Dividends have steadily increased over the last 6 years. Including bonuses, it is up almost 3.5 times.

Cash Flow

Fig 4 – Cash Flow & Dividend – Standalone

Price and PE_1

 Fig 5 – Price and PE movements

  • The Price and PE chart, Fig 5, reveals the variations in PE values along with the steady share price appreciation. In the last 5 years, the PE ratio has been in a range of 15-35 times, while this historical average is 25 times.
  • Today it is at 29 times, on the upper half of this range.
  • In the Price and EPS chart, Fig 6, we can see a sharp surge in EPS over the last 2 years. The share price has also been in line with this. The EPS growing within a channel represented by two lines.

EPS_1

Fig 6 – Price and EPS movements

  • Total debt is Rs 4071 cr, and D/E high at 1.78. However this is a spike, required to acquire firms, and is expected to be reduced to manageable levels in the next 1-2 years.
  • Return on Capital Employed is 17.4% while Return on Net Worth is 19.4%. These are good ratios.
  • PE is 29.6 currently, and PEG based on PE and EPS growth is at 0.98 – indicates a fairly valued stock.

Benchmarking

In the benchmarking exercise we compare MSS with industry plays like Bharat Forge, Bosch and Exide.

Benchmarking

Fig 7 – Industry Benchmarking

  • With its acquisitions in the recent past, MSS leads in terms of revenue growth. The cost of acquisitions reflects in the high debt.
  • With good cash management, the revenue growth should soon reflect on the profits and debt reduction. Good inventory turnover means factory assets are being well utilized.

Financial Estimate

The business financials are projected in Fig 8.

Projections

Fig 8 – Financial Projections

  • In the next 2-3 years, MSS will consolidate its acquisitions, steady the new operations, grow business volumes and repay debt from cash flows.
  • The recent revenues jumps will soon translate into profit increases.
  • MSS forex revenues is a plus as the INR over 2-3 years will be stable or may even depreciate a little.

Risks

  • Current expectations are that the domestic market’s current slowdown will end in 1-2 quarters, but if it extends for a longer period, domestic investments will be affected.
  • Foreign Exchange volatility. MSS has 83% of revenues in non INR currencies. A significant portion of debt is also in Forex. We can see large unpredictable quarterly gains and losses due to this.
  • Economic environment needs to be stable in key markets of USA, UK, Europe, China and India.
  • Complex corporate structure of group with many cross holdings, JVs and subsidiaries across firms.

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendation

  • The global automobile market recovered significantly in 2013 from the impact of the global financial crisis, buoyed by economic recovery and pent-up demand in the U.S. and Asia.
  • The automobile sector in India has many unique advantages – good local small car demand and production, export momentum, presence of many global names and design skills. Clearly the auto ancilliary industry also incorporates all of these.
  • MSS is a visible, dynamic player in auto ancillaries. They started as a vendor for Maruti Suzuki, and built capability, corporate maturity and finally global growth from this strong base.
  • By all indications, MSS is a successful Indian auto ancillary firm that has made bold moves to grow internationally, acquire technologies, listen to their customers and manage manufacturing well.
  • While the PE at 29.6 appears high, we expect profits growth to exceed this over the next 2-3 years
  • MSS is a buy with a Mar 2016 price target of 451, a 104% appreciation from today (25 Feb’14).

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Disclaimer

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments (JM) of Bangalore, India, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior written permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Either JM or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Tata Motors – A Jaguar like leap

Date: June 1, 2012         CMP: 225         Mkt Cap: 74,000 crore       P/E: 5.3 times

Introduction

Tata Motors (TM) is a major player in the Indian automobile sector, with a presence across Commercial vehicles and passenger cars. International acquisitions have also helped substantially in growth.

  • TM declared excellent FY12 results: revenues 1,65,000 cr (35% up), and profits 13,574 cr (47 % up).
  • The current market cap of Rs 74,000 crore ranks it #15 in India.
  • Just 33% of revenues are from standalone TM, while the JLR subsidiary contributes a large proportion of revenues and profits, as high as 70% and 90% recently.
  • Key divisions & subsidiaries include TM Commercial Vehicles, TM Passenger cars, Jaguar /Land Rover (JLR), Tata Daewoo Commercial Vehicles, Tata Motors Finance and Tata Technologies.

Lets do a quick analysis of this stock to see where its heading.

Pricing Snapshot

Tata Motors - Price trends - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Tata Motors – Price trends – JainMatrix Investments

A 5-year view of the share price of TM shows us:

  • Share price has risen by 15% CAGR over the last 5 years.
  • The share has been very volatile, – from a recent low of 139 in Aug 2011, the share rose to 320 in April ’12 and is down to 225 currently.

Financial Snapshot

  • Revenues, EBITDA and PAT have gained by 47%, 64% and 57% CAGR over 5 years.
  • P/E has moved in a range of 5.3-19 times in this period, and is currently at 5.3.
  • Operating margins are excellent at 20%. Profit margins are flat at 8.2%.
  • Dividend has been steady at 200% or Rs 4, indicating a dividend yield of 1.8%.
  • PEG is at 0.1 – indicates very undervalued stock.
Tata Motors - Financial Analysis - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – Tata Motors – Financial Analysis – JainMatrix Investments, click to enlarge

Business Concerns

  • The business concerns around TM include – underperformance of Indian operations, falling margins of JLR subsidiary and poor economic outlook in Europe and some slowdown in even China.
  • However, these are balanced by excellent growth in JLR, capacity additions to cater to waiting lists and strong domestic TM Commercial Vehicle operations.
  • Even with a fall in Operating and Profit margins, the revenue growth has been excellent. This has meant higher EPS, and Earnings growth has pushed P/E down to attractive levels for investors.

Conclusions

  • The fundamentals indicate that TM is a buy at these levels.
  • Price volatility will continue, as TM has generated very high interest among traders. But current weakness should stabilize soon, and Investors can look at entering at these levels.

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Hero MotoCorp – A Splendid Core Holding

  • Date: May 16, 2012. Price: Rs 1893, Large Cap – Market Cap 36,800 crores
  • Advice: Low Risk, Medium Gain. Buy now and systematically.
  • Current valuation is Rs. 2025. It is available at a 7% discount.
  • Target: Rs. 3320 by April 2014, a 75% appreciation.

Subscribers received this report on 17th May 2012. 

Hero MotoCorp is the #1 two-wheeler manufacturer in the world. For a large company, the growth figures are impressive: Sales is up 19%, EBITDA 24% and Net Profit 23% CAGR over the last 5 years. Ranked #28 by market cap, it is a truly Indian blue chip. Post the split with Honda, Hero MotoCorp focus is on exports, capacity growth and premium segment offerings. Domestic competition is set to intensify, but the international potential is tremendous. Market leadership, good financial management and a recent fall in price give us a good entry point. 

Hero MotoCorp – Description and Profile

  • Hero MotoCorp (HM), formerly Hero Honda Motors is the world’s #1 maker of two wheelers, from fuel-efficient scooters to powerful motorcycles.
  • The revenues for FY12 were 23,900 crores, with PAT at 2,380 crores. It sold 6.2 m two wheelers in FY12; against capacity of 6.6 m. Manufacturing is at Gurgaon & Dharuhera (Haryana) and Haridwar (Uttrakhand). It employs 5,257 personnel.
  • It is New Delhi based. Listed since 1984, HM today is #28 in Indian Market Cap rankings at 36,800 crores.
  • HM dominates In India with 45% market share. The brands include Splendor, Passion, CBZ, Hunk, Karizma, Glamour, Achiever, Impulse and CD-Dawn/Delux. Splendor sells more than 1m per year. HM has a customer loyalty program since 2000, called the HM Goodlife programme. Exports comprise 3.4% of revenues.
  • HM has 4,500+ consumer touch points, including 800 dealers, Parts distributors and Auth. Service Centers. HM has run the successful ‘Desh ki Dhadkan’ campaign. It sponsors many sporting events, including cricket.
  • Shareholding pattern is: Promoters – Individual/Corporate 52.2%, MFs/ DII 5.3%; FIIs 33.8%, Bodies Corporate plus others 1.7%, Individuals retail & HNI 7%. Thus Promoters hold majority stake – a good sign.
  • Executives: Chairman Brijmohan Lall Munjal, MD /CEO Pawan Munjal, Directors Pradeep Dinodia and VP Malik

Strategies Executed and Updates

  • In June 2010, the Munjal family split the Hero group among themselves. Each family got ownership of the business they were already managing. Hero Honda continues with the Brijmohan Lall Munjal family.
  • In Dec 2010, the 25-year partnership between Hero Group and Honda Motors Japan was terminated. Hero Group bought Honda’s stake through an undisclosed payment and relaunched as HM in Aug’11. HM, the new entity can use the Honda brand name till 2014.  Royalty payments will also cease in ’14.
  • HM has tied up with an engine developer, AVL (Austria), to develop technology for 100 /110 cc models; for the high end products it has signing a technology-sharing deal with US m’cycle firm Erik Buell Racing (EBR). The R&D setup at Daruhera will also become a full-fledged design and engineering center with EBR.
  • Vision (5-7 Years): HM has targeted revenues of $10b and volumes of 10m by ‘16-17, with exports 10% of this.
  • HM will invest 4,500 cr. over 5 years in 2 factories (South & West India) and a global parts center (Rajasthan). Exports will expand from Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka, to Africa & Latin America, with 100-125cc bikes.
  • In Auto Expo 2012, HM showcased a hybrid scooter. The commercial launch is however some time away. In Nov’11 HM launched an Off Road Bike, Hero Impulse, creating a new category; it has been received well.

Product Classification

The two wheeler market is classified as:

  • Economy/Entry segment vehicles are priced < than 40,000, and engine 100-110cc. This segment makes up 16% of market. HM has a strong presence with 40% share. Products include CD Dawn and CD Delux.
  • Executive segment bikes are in 40-50,000 range, with engine 110-135cc. This segment has 60% of the market. HM is very strong with 71% share, with Glamour/Pro, Passion Pro, Splendor+/NXG/Pro/Super
  • Premium segment bikes have price > 50,000 and engine 150-225cc. This segment has 19% of the market. HM is weak in this segment with 13% share, with Achiever, Hunk, CBZ Xtreme, Impulse, Karizma/ ZMR.
  • Power (250cc plus) segment. This segment makes up 5% of the market. HM has no presence here.

Customer Experience: A visit to a Hero MotoCorp dealership is a revelation. The visibility and feel was good, but a lot of bikes were just lined up as if for storage, eating up the otherwise roomy showroom space. The dealership is geared to handle a lot of customers, and the noise and interactions gave a feeling of an enclosed bazaar, busy but comfortable. The salespersons were courteous and helpful. The process included a pamphlet with products, features, photos and prices, and a Test ride. The overall feel was functional, but not special.

Industry Analysis

The players in the two-wheeler space include HM, Honda, Bajaj, TVS, Suzuki, Mahindra and Yamaha.

Two Wheeler Industry Market Shares, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Two Wheeler Industry Market Shares (Click graphic to expand)

  • The biggest gainers in this five year  period have been HM and Honda
Two Wheeler – Domestic Sales, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – Two Wheeler – Domestic Sales, JainMatrix Investments (Click)

  • The industry has grown at 11.7% CAGR over the last 7 years

Stock valuation, Performance and Returns

HM has been listed for a long time. For our analysis purpose, we will consider the period from 2003-12.

Hero MotoCorp, Share Price, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – Hero MotoCorp Share Price

  • The Hero MotoCorp share is up 22% CAGR over the last 5 years. The all time peak was at 2279, achieved recently on May 2, 2012. It is today at 17% below this.
  • This sharp recent fall may be partially due to a lower Dividend announcement as we can see in Fig 5. The lower Dividend was to conserve cash for upcoming investments in new capacities, new products and exports.
Quarterly Sales and Profits, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – Quarterly Sales and Profits, JainMatrix Investments

  • The growth numbers are excellent with Sales up 19%, EBITDA 24% and Net Profit 23% CAGR over 5 years.
  • Margins are not high, but have held up well in current inflationary conditions.
Five year Price and Dividend details, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – Five year Price and Dividend details, JainMatrix Investments

  • Dividend is 2250%, which gives a yield of 2.4%.
Fig 6 – Cash Flow and EPS, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – Cash Flow and EPS, JainMatrix Investments

  • Cash from operations has risen steadily at 38.3% CAGR
  • EPS is up 22.6% CAGR over the last 4 years.
  • ROCE was 52% in 2011, and between 42-75% in 5 years before that. One of the reasons for this is that the Equity Capital has been 40 crores for the last 10 years. This is excellent, a sign of good capital stability.
Price and PE Trend, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 7 – Price and PE Trend, JainMatrix Investments

  • The Price and PE Chart of HM, Fig7, indicates that in the last 6 years, the average PE has been 17. Current PE of 15.9 indicates below average valuations and a possible entry point.
Price and EPS Trend, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 8 – Price and EPS Trend, JainMatrix Investments

  • The view of the EPS charts in Fig 8 shows that EPS grew very rapidly in end ‘07- early ‘10 period, then fell in the 2010. The recovery has come in 2011, so that EPS is today at all time highs currently.
  • The EPS of HM is expected to stay in the channel as per Fig 8.
  • The Beta is 0.56. This indicates lower volatility than the Sensex.
  • PEG is at 0.7 – indicates undervalued status

Peer Benchmarking and Financial Projections

In a Benchmarking exercise, we have compared HM to other two-wheeler companies.

Peer Benchmarking, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 9 – Peer Benchmarking, JainMatrix Investments

Bajaj Auto rates highly on several parameters. This is because they have an established exports business. HM has been priced lower due to recent dramatic changes like split with Honda. However, HM should be able to execute on plans and command premium valuations soon.

The financials and PE of HM have been projected for the next 3 years. See Exhibit 10.

Financial Projections, Hero MotoCorp, JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 10 – Financial Projections, JainMatrix Investments

Risks

  • Competition in India is intensifying: Honda is launching new products, and planning Chinese model imports and new manufacturing capacity. Bajaj, Yamaha and even Ducati, and Harley Davidson are launching high-end bikes in India.
    • New partnerships with AVL and EBR (detailed above) will strengthen products. New capacity is planned.
  • HM is strong on the lower end products, Economy and Executive. However these are lower margin products. While HM has some products in the Premium (and none in Power), it is a weakness.
    • As a volume leader, HM is best placed to get profits from Economy and Executive segments.
    • HM certainly needs to strengthen offerings in the profitable upper end segments and launch an attractive Power segment product. One way to do this is to open higher end focused dealer outlets.
  • HM is close to 100% capacity utilization at its plants. This makes the firm sensitive to any production disruption. Also the firm may not be able to respond to any surge in demand, if it happens.
    • HM is an experienced market player, and will be able to respond to market demands profitably.
    • By 2012, HM plans a capacity of 10m units, an almost 40% growth.
  • Macro economic risks like hike in interest rates, high inflation, petrol prices and Retail and GDP slowdown.
    • To some extend these above are already playing out in India. However two wheelers are the main means of personal transportation for the vast majority of middle and lower middle class Indians, and demand may remain robust. Also above economic headwinds should clear in 6-9 months
  • The acquisition of Honda stake in 2011 by promoters was for an undisclosed sum, which was never revealed to public. Estimates vary from 5,000 to 9,500 crores. It is a liability taken by promoters, so there is no compulsion to go public with this, but it would have been a good example of corporate governance and transparency if this were done.
  • Labour: HM is a large employer at its factories. It is critical to have good staff relations, not just in HM itself, but also in the ancillary complex of suppliers to HM. There have been strikes at suppliers like Exide (Mar 2010) and Rico Auto (Oct 2009).
    • So far Labour relations has been a positive for HM. The last public report of a strike at HM is in April 2006 (5 days at Gurgaon).

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendations

  • Two wheeler sales in India reflect of the state of the economy, perhaps better than four wheelers. The Indian economy today is at a demand inflection point, due to a combination of ‘demographic dividend’, increased per capita wealth and lifestyle aspirations. HM is well placed to take advantage of these economic conditions.
  • In the next 5 years, India will establish itself as an accepted manufacturing and export base for Automobiles, particularly smaller cars and two wheelers. HM will be able to exploit this trend.
  • HM has for long dominated the Indian two-wheeler market. This will continue. Additionally, free of restrictions from the Honda JV, HM should enter a new phase of technology independence and export led growth.
  • Consumers have accepted the Honda JV split and HM has outperformed in 2012. This is a fine stability signal.
  • The 5-year financial review has revealed good growth, high profitability, excellent ROCE and low debt.
  • A recent dip in the shares of 17% makes for a good entry point for investors.
  • HM is a Blue Chip, Low Risk, Medium Gain stock with a good dividend. It can be a Core holding for Long Term & Retirement investments. At these levels and in this trajectory, it is a BUY.
    • Our valuation prices the share at Rs. 2025. Thus today it is available at a 7% discount.
    • By Mar ’14, our projected price is Rs. 3320, a 75% appreciation
    • By Mar ’15, our projected price is Rs. 4171, a 120% appreciation
  • Invest regularly in a SIP fashion to reduce the risk of market volatility.

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 Disclosure: It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it.

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