Adani Port and SEZ – An Indian Port Dominator

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  • 23rd Aug 2013
  • CMP: Rs 123
  • Large Cap – Market Cap 25,500 crores
  • Advice:  Medium Risk, High Gain stock. BUY with a 2 yr perspective

JainMatrix Investments presents investors the complete report on Adani Port and SEZ as part of the Investor Rewards Fortnight. 

Key Reasons to Invest:

  • AP’s Mundra Port and Indian operations are excellent infra assets with Revenues, EBITDA and Profits up by 36%, 32% and 50% CAGR over the last 5 years.
  • AP can emerge as a port sector dominator in 3-4 years. The currently govt. dominated Indian Port sector is constrained on capacity and efficiency, offering a large opportunity. 
  • Divestment of the Abbot Point Port, Australia has de-risked the business.
  • It has only medium debt, and the cash flow is likely to improve in coming quarters. 
  • Risk: Environmental review and SEZ clearances by Govt. of India. 

This is an update of my Sept 2012 report ‘Adani Port – The Great Australian Adventure’ available here.

Adani Port – Description and Profile

  • Adani Port and SEZ – (AP) is Gujarat based firm with FY13 revenues 3841 cr and PAT 1639 cr (consolidated).
  • The Founder/Chairman of AP is Gautam Adani, a self-made entrepreneur.
  • AP businesses include Mundra Port, the largest private port – 82mmt in FY13, an adjacent SEZ area of 6,500-hectare and several terminal operating contracts at other Ports in India. (mmt is million metric tonnes Cargo)
  • Mundra Port was #2 among Indian ports in FY13, with a 15% market share, and has become #1 this year. It trades in a diverse cargo base like bulk, liquid, project cargo and container, implying lower business risks.

Mundra Port

  • It’s a private port, so Mundra is free to price its services, unlike the PSU ports in India. It has ‘take or pay’ arrangements with many of the customers. This protects AP from sudden drops in demand.
  • AP is also developing and operating terminals at Hazira, Mormugao, Dahej, Hazira, Kandla and Vizag in India. AP as an operator now has a presence in seven ports in India.
  • Connectivity and logistical facilities connect the Port, berthing and storage facilities to Roads, Rail, Airstrip and Pipelines for goods transportation. Growth in Cargo was 29% in FY13. See Exhibit 1.
Consolidated Cargo, JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 1 – Port Operations Growth, JainMatrix Investments

  • The Shareholding in % is Promoters 75.0, MFs/DII 5.1, FIIs 15.0, Individuals retail/HNI 3.1 and Others 1.8.
  • Adani Enterprises is the holding company with cross-holdings in Adani Power and AP. The group is focused on sectors of Coal, Mining, Port Logistics and Power generation, and the three firms execute on this plan.
  • The vision for AP is to increase annual cargo handling capacity from 91 mmt in 2013 to 200 mmt by 2020.

Events, News and Strategies

  • In Q1FY14 Mundra Port overtook Kandla to emerge as India’s largest port by handling 24 mmt (Kandla 23).
  • The Abbott Point Port, Australia was acquired by AP in June 2011. But in Mar 2013, it was divested to its promoters, freeing AP of a complex foreign asset and large debt, so it can concentrate on Indian operations. Post a valuation exercise, the entire debt and equity used for this purchase was bought out.
  • In early May, the Union government granted security clearance to AP, thereby allowing the firm to participate in port/ terminal bids, removing a restriction that was placed on it in November 2010.
  • Tata’s Mundra UMPP and Adani Power obtained approval from the CERC for a revision of power tariff due to rising imported coal costs. This coal is routed through Mundra Port.
  • Adani Group is exploring a listing of holding company Adani Enterprise on an overseas bourse, to raise cash and help reduce debt at a group level. If this succeeds, it will trigger a price appreciation.
  • The promoters of AP recently reduced stake to SEBI specified 75%, raising 1,000 cr via Institutional placement.
  • New Projects: Possible investments include the Dharma Port, a new port on the East coast. This high potential port has the deepest draft and cargo capacity of 25mmt in place, with a long term expansion plan to 100mmt.
  • Tie ups with Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), the world’s top container shipping lines should help increase cargo volumes in Mundra. Ports assets at  Hazira and Dahej will see full utilisation from FY14.

Industry Note:

  • 95% of India’s international trade is done through the Sea Ports. Traffic projections for next 8 years are 11% growth CAGR (Shipping Ministry). As Imports and Exports grow rapidly, the constraint will be Port capacities.
  • Mundra Port is able to provide port access to industries in Gujarat, Maharashtra and North Indian regions. It has an excellent location and the connectivity has been well developed.
  • The Central govt. Ports are constrained in terms of low tariffs; and terminal operators are not incentivized to grow volumes, resulting in stagnant capacities and falling market share. Most of the major ports are operating near the full capacity, resulting in high per-berthing detention and turnaround time of vessels.
  • Ports capacity needs to be increased for better service and operations. This is a big opportunity for AP.

Stock Valuation, Performance and Returns 

Share Price and Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – Share Price and Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

  • The IPO of AP in Nov 2007 was successful. It was oversubscribed 115 times, and provided listing gains. However it was aggressively priced, at 88 (Rs, adjusted). See Fig 2.
  • There was a split in Sept 2010, from FV10 to FV2.
  • IPO investors have seen a 6% CAGR returns since listing. The Dividend has increased steadily, till the current 50%, i.e. Re 1 on FV Rs 2. This gives a dividend yield of 0.8%.
  • Volatile Prices – Share price rose post IPO to 264, fell to 50 in Nov’08, rose again to a high of 185 in Oct’10, before dropping to today’s 131.
Adani Port Quarterly Sales and Profits, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – Adani Port Quarterly Sales and Profits, JainMatrix Investments

  • The 5 year growth has been rapid, with Revenues, EBITDA and Profits up 36%, 32% and 50% CAGR, Fig 3.
  • With higher volumes, the margins have reduced, so Operating Margins are 64% and PAT Margins are 28%.
Cash Flow and Financial Ratios, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – Cash Flow and Financial Ratios, JainMatrix Investments

  • Debt-equity is 1.67, down from recent highs. This is fair for an infra company, Fig 4.
  • All infra companies incur high initial investments to create the assets. This is true of AP, which has a medium Cash flow due to recent investments in new terminals and capacity expansions.
  • EPS (adjusted) is up 45% CAGR in recent years.
  • Fig 5 tracks the market price of AP against its P/E, ttm. The PE for AP has been in a range of 15-45 times over 5 years. But current PE of 14.3 is at low end of this range.
Adani Price and PE Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – Adani Price and PE Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Adani Price and EPS Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – Adani Price and EPS Chart, JainMatrix Investments

  • The chart (Fig 6) plots the market price against the adjusted EPS over the period.  EPS shows us a steady quarterly increase indicating stable business performance.
  • Return Ratios are improving – ROCE is 13% (7.8% in FY12) while RONW is 25% (23% in FY12).
  • Our calculation of the PEG is 0.47 (0.55 in FY12), which indicates an undervalued stock.

Benchmarking and Financial Projections

We have benchmarked AP with comparable leaders from other sectors, Exhibit 7:

Benchmarking, JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 7 – Peer Benchmarking, JainMatrix Investments

It appears that AP valuations look rich; the Sales & Profits are steady; Low asset turnover; Return ratios are good, while debt is high, and Interest coverage is low. The explanation is that:

  • AP has always been perceived as a pioneer/ leader, so it has had higher valuations.
  • AP has large assets that can be exploited, so the SEZ land bank is a key asset that can be monetized.
  • Acquisition of assets like Dharma Port may involve large investments but over time the Returns will improve.

Financial Projections:

Here are the 2 year financial projections for AP, Exhibit 8.

Financial Projections, JainMatrix Investments

Exhibit 8 – Financial Projections, JainMatrix Investments

Note – The financial projections in my Sept 2012 report were actually exceeded by AP in FY2013 by Turnover – 28%, EBITDA – 53% and Profits – 13%, partially due to the divesting of the Abbot Point asset, and rest due to overall excellent performance !! However, the share price is still not reflecting this.

Risks

  • A panel set up by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) to evaluate the firm against a PIL and complaints reports that AP flouted green norms. The possible result of this is a penalty/ fine that will be used to take corrective steps in the Mundra Port region.
    • Certainly AP will have to modify its policies and ensure compliance in future.
  • One of the criticisms of AP has been that this group is very aggressive, and in its push for growth and volumes ignores aspects like environment and safety systems and procedures.
  • Gujarat High court in a May 2012 court order has stayed development work at AP due to unauthorized construction over a 1,840-hectare enclave that was not vacant, and had no Central environmental clearance – this may delay additional construction for the SEZ area.
    • AP has reapplied for the SEZ status for this parcel of land.
  • Outside the AP business, the Adani Group includes Adani Enterprises and Adani Power. As of now these two group entities have a troubled business outlook in terms of high debts, mining sector clampdowns, high costs of coal imports and poor financials. This may affect AP prospects directly or indirectly.
  • In absolute numbers, AP consolidated debt is 10,600 cr (Mar 2013), of which 7,500 cr is in foreign exchange.
    • As per reports, the forex debt is naturally hedged by marine/ container income, for interest & repayment.

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendation

  • Seaports are very critical infrastructure for India. While imports have grown tremendously recently, we expect exports to also pick up and accelerate in the coming years. Almost 95% of merchandise Ex-Im is transported by seaports. The 5-9% GDP growth range in India is now testing the capacities of Indian Ports.
  • Govt. ports so far have been constrained in terms of capacity, speed of execution and pricing.
  • AP’s Mundra Port and other Indian operations are excellent. AP will capture market share due to investments in capacity, good connectivity, excellent facilities, speedier turnarounds and proximity to demand centers.
  • AP is quickly emerging as a street smart and very aggressive competitor in the Port terminal construction and operation space, across cargo categories. With AP bidding for and setting up terminals even in PSU ports, AP in the next 3-4 years may be able dominate the sector. With large market share will come pricing power and better margins.
  • With the exit from the Abbot Point Port, the EPS growth may continue in the high 40% for the next 3 years.
  • The price has fallen 30% from the 175 peak in May 2013. PE has fallen to new lows. This provides a good entry point for long term investors.
  • Investors may consider AP as a Medium Risk, High Gain stock. Our call is BUY with a 2 yr perspective.

To read such valuable reports, immediately on publishing, and to get a full year of such reports you need to subscribe to JainMatrix Investments, on this link,  Subscribe.

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

Additional Infrastructure sector reports from JainMatrix Investments:

  • BHEL – a Power Value Play – LINK
  • NHPC – Steady, Cheap, Defensive Power Generator – LINK 
  • Cairn India – A Formula for Success – LINK
  • Mindtree – A Possible Star – LINK

Check back on the website www.jainmatrix.com for updates.

Disclaimer and Disclosure:

It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it. Punit Jain has owned (long only) Adani Port and SEZ since Jan 2010.

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent Financial Expert/Advisor. Either JM or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Final review of Portfolio, ‘Bottom fishing in 2012’

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Date: 28-Nov-12

JainMatrix Investments launched this portfolio in Jan 2012, when we published the report ‘Bottom fishing in 2012’. To read this now, click on LINK. This is the final review of this portfolio.

In Jan, we said, ‘A bottom is in place, and the price reversal has started‘; there is ‘a change in sentiment‘ and ‘a coordinated rise ’in the share prices. We suggested a portfolio of nine stocks for preferably SIP investment.

Today, Ten months later, lets check this portfolio for investor gains – how has it performed?

Performance

 Company

Report  Jan 17th

Review Feb 20th Gain/ Loss % Review  27th Nov Gain/ Loss % Sector Mkt Cap k Crores

Find out more?

Titan Industries

185

232 25 303 64 Consumer L – 27

LINK

Yes Bank

285

364 28 434 52 Bank L – 16

LINK

KEC International

49.1

61 24 63 28 Power M – 1.6

LINK

Hanung Toys & Textiles

128

140.6 10 164 28 Consumer S – 0.4

LINK

BGR Energy Systems

229

339 48 268 17 Power M – 1.9

LINK

Binani Industries

121

124.1 2.5 129 7 Cement+ S – 0.4
Diamond Power Infra

111

138 24 109 -2 Power S – 0.4
Adani Port & SEZ

135

150.5 12 130 -4 Ports, SEZ L – 26

LINK

IRB Infrastructures

153

208 36 126 -17 Infra M – 4.2

LINK

Average

 

  23.2   19.2  

 

 
NIFTY

4,967

5,564 12 5,727 15
Sensex

16,466

18,289 11 18,842

14

CNX Midcap

6,764

7,925 17.2 7,948 17

k – ‘000

BSE Small Cap

6,290

7,116 13.1 7,183 14

M-midcap

Observations & Learnings:

  • The portfolio’s absolute appreciation since Jan is an avg. gain of 19.2%!! It has outperformed all indices!!
  • Investment by SIP fashion from Jan’12, gives absolute gains of 11.1% so far, annualized to 13.3%.
  • Supporting this portfolio are research reports with Links included in above table.
  • Consumer and Banking sectors have emerged as better performers, while Power and Infra are weaker.

Suggestions and Risks:

  • This portfolio will appreciate, but invest in each stock with a minimum one year perspective.
  • This is an aggressive portfolio, so do not invest in only 1-2 stocks. Invest monthly in a SIP form.
  • Past performance is no indication of future results. In fact leadership in this portfolio has changed often.

New Model Portfolio (Mid Cap)

  • While we continue to be optimistic of the prospects of this portfolio, this will be the final such report.
  • A new Model Portfolio (Mid-Cap) is being created that will reflect the changing trends in this market. To access this, and other valuable research, readers need to sign up with JainMatrix Investments as a Paid Subscriber, see LINK.

Disclaimer:

These reports and documents are prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permissions; for any questions contact the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

October report on ‘Bottom fishing in 2012’

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Date: 3-Oct-12

In Jan 2012, JainMatrix Investments published the report ‘Bottom fishing in 2012’. To read this now, click on LINK

The report indicated that: ‘A bottom is in place, and the price reversal has started‘; there is ‘a change in sentiment‘ and ‘a coordinated rise ’in the share prices. It suggested a portfolio of nine stocks for preferably SIP investment. They are Mid/ Small Caps with potential.

Nine months later, we will review this portfolio for investor gains – how has it performed?

Company

Report

Jan 17th

Review Feb 20th Gain/ Loss % Review

3rd Oct

Abs. Gain/ Loss % Sector Mkt Cap k Crores Find out more?
KEC International 49.1 61 24 72 47 Power M – 1.8 LINK
Yes Bank 285 364 28 398 40 Bank L – 14 LINK
Titan Industries 185 232 25 258 40 Consumer L – 23 LINK
BGR Energy Systems 229 339 48 279 22 Power M – 2.0 LINK
Binani Industries 121 124.1 2.5 132 9 Cement+ S – 0.4
Diamond Power Infra 111 138 24 119 7 Power S – 0.4
IRB Infrastructures 153 208 36 156 2 Infra M – 5.2 LINK
Hanung Toys & Textiles 128 140.6 10 124 -3 Consumer S – 0.3 LINK
Adani Port & SEZ 135 150.5 12 128 -5 Ports, SEZ L – 26 LINK
Average 23.2 17.5
NIFTY 4,967 5,564 12 5,722 15
Sensex 16,466 18,289 11 18,858 14
CNX Midcap 6,764 7,925 17.2 7,952 17.5 k – ‘000
BSE Small Cap 6,290 7,116 13.1 7,161 14 M-midcap

Observations:

  • Definitely the portfolio is up since Jan, and on average the shares have gained 17.5%!! It has outperformed all indices except the CNX Midcap, and is on par with this.
  • Investment in a SIP fashion from Jan’12, would give absolute gains of 10.4% so far, annualized to 16%.
  • Supporting this portfolio are new research reports for Adani Port and Yes Bank, included in above table.
  • The recent upturn in indices has helped as we bought earlier at lower levels. We continue to be optimistic of the prospects of this portfolio.

Suggestions and Risks:

  • This portfolio will appreciate, but invest with a minimum one year perspective.
  • This is an aggressive portfolio. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. Invest monthly in a SIP form.
  • Past performance is no indication of future results.

Additionally:

  • Some research reports are only available to Subscribers. Join up to receive actionable, high quality insights and recommendation for Equity investments. Boost your returns.
  • Spread the cheer. Share this letter with friends and fellow investors; invite them to also subscribe.
  • To subscribe, use this Signup Form CLICK or enter your email on the top right of this page.

Disclaimer:

These reports and documents are prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permissions; for any questions contact the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

Adani Port – The Great Australian Adventure

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  • Date: 20-Sep-12.        CMP: Rs 115           Large Cap – Market Cap 23,450 crores
  • Firm is valued at Rs 136 (18% over CMP)    
  • Price Target is Rs 215 by Apr 2014, an 84% appreciation.                         
  • Advice:  Medium Risk, High Gain stock. BUY with a 2 yr perspective

Executive Summary

Key Reasons to Invest:

  • Adani Port’s Mundra Port & Indian operations are excellent infra assets with Sales, Profits and EPS up by 36, 42 and 44% CAGR over 5 years.
  • Govt dominated Indian Port sector is overall constrained on capacity, speed and pricing.
  • The large Australian Abbot Point acquisition comes from a conviction that the next phase of Port services growth will come from Australian Coal and Mining exports.

Risks:

  • Additional debt of 9000 cr on the books, Australian currency and interest rates risk
  • Full success of the Australian investment needs many things to fall in place – Coal mining by Adani Enterprises to start by 2014, PPA negotiations in Gujarat and capacity additions at Abbott Port.
  • Environmental and Security clearances by Govt. of India

This report is an update of the May 30th 2012 report called Adani Port: Infra play at good valuations V2 by JainMatrix Investments.  

Adani Port – Description and Profile

  • Adani Port and SEZ – (APSEZ) is Gujarat based with FY12 revenues 3269 cr and PAT 1093 cr (consolidated).
  • APSEZ businesses include Mundra, the largest private port (64 MT in FY12), several Port-operating contracts, an SEZ area adjacent to Mundra port (6,500-hectare) and Abbot Point Port, Australia.
  • Market share in India grew in FY12 to 11% from 10% in one year. It is #2 among all Indian ports, and #1 in terms of private ports in India. Promoted by Adani Group, APSEZ trades in a broad range of products, implying lower business risks. See Fig 1.
Fig 1 - Business Segments in FY12, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Business Segments, JainMatrix Investments (Click any chart to expand)

  • It is also developing/operating terminals at Hazira, Mormugao and Vizag in India and Abbot Point in Australia. APSEZ as an operator now has a presence in six ports in India. Through these facilities APSEZ has increased its domestic market share in container handling to 18%, up by 3% in FY12.
  • Being a private port, APSEZ is free to price its services, unlike PSU ports in India. It has ‘take or pay’ arrangements with many of the customers. This protects APSEZ from sudden drops in demand.
  • Connectivity and logistical facilities connect the Port, berthing and storage facilities to Roads, Rail, Airstrip and Pipelines for goods transportation. Growth in Cargo was 49% in FY12. Table 2.
Table 2 - Port Operations Growth, JainMatrix Investments

Table 2 – Port Operations Growth, JainMatrix Investments

  • The port has in place a dedicated automobile terminal for exports, currently being used by Maruti.
  • The SEZ area is organized into a number of clusters to cater to different needs of Industrial groups.
  • APSEZ enjoys Indirect and Direct Tax benefits designed to encourage infrastructure growth.
  • The Shareholding pattern is Promoter group 77.5%, MFs/ DII 4.9%, FIIs 10.2%, Individuals retail/ HNI 3.7% and Bodies Corporate etc 3.7%. As per delisting norms, Promoter holding needs to reduce to 75% in a year.
  • Adani Enterprises is the holding company with cross-holdings in Adani Power and APSEZ. The group has ambitions across Coal, Logistics and Power generation, and these 3 firms execute on this plan.

Events, News and Strategies

  • Abbot Point coal terminal, Australia: APSEZ bought the Abbot Point Port in May 2011 in cash for A$1.8 billion (9000 cr). This coal terminal, of capacity 50 MMT with capacity increase provisions, will help transport coal from Australian mines to India. This purchase is expensive, but funded by lower cost Australian finance (6.5%). Refinancing of the loan was done with long-term loans of an AUD1.1bn and US$0.8bn loan. At the same time, a massive loan has been taken, that changes the financials and balance sheet of this company.
    • There is synergy with Adani Enterprise’s purchase of Linc Energy’s Galilee coal project, close to Abbot Point in Australia for $2.7bn in August 2010. This is expected to start producing coal by 2014. Also there is ample growth opportunity in the region, as the local government is mapping out a decade long plan to grow port terminals capacity to 385 MMT from the current 50.
  • Coal demand in India is due to Power capacity increase. Domestic supply has not been able to keep up. So Coal imports have increased rapidly, projected at 185 MT by 2017 (99MT today), by the Planning Commission.
  • APSEZ recently won a project for development of a dry bulk terminal at Kandla Port, Gujarat. With an investment of Rs 1200 cr., the terminal will have capacity 20 MMT and take 24 months construct.
  • The 9MT HPCL‐Mittal Energy refinery in Bhatinda, was fully operationalized in Mar’12. Crude will be imported through Mundra and transported through the 1,017 km pipeline to the refinery.
  • Mundra also expects higher coal volumes on account of the commissioning of additional phases at Tata UMPP and Adani’sMundra Power plants.
  • Adani Group is exploring a listing of holding company Adani Enterprise on an overseas bourse, to raise cash and help reduce debt at a group level. If this succeeds, it will trigger a price appreciation.
  • APSEZ vision is to have an annual cargo handling capacity of 200 MMT by 2020 (current 78MMT).

Industry Note:

  • 95% of India’s international trade is done through the Sea Ports. Traffic projections for next 8 years are 11% growth CAGR (Shipping Ministry). As Imports and Exports grow rapidly, the constraint will be Port capacities.
  • Mundra is able to provide port access to industries in Gujarat, Maharashtra and North Indian regions. Local competition to APSEZ is from Kandla, JNPT and Pipavav on the Western shores. But Kandla, JNPT and other govt. ports have not invested sufficiently in infrastructure due to government constraints.
  • Pipavav Port is at an early stage of development. Also it is in South Gujarat and logistically more remote. Pipavav Port in Gujarat is owned by A.P. Moller-Maersk Group, is one of the largest container terminal operators in the world. Over the next few years, APM Terminals will transfer a lot of India business from other ports to Pipavav, and also build good infrastructure here.

Stock Valuation, Performance and Returns

  • The IPO in Nov 2007 was very successful. It was oversubscribed 115 times, and provided listing gains. However it was aggressively priced, at 88 (Rs, adjusted). See Fig 3
Fig 3 – Share Price and Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – Share Price and Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

  • Volatile Prices – Share price rose post IPO to 264, fell to 50 in Nov’08, rose again to a high of 185 in Oct’10, before dropping to today’s 115. This last fall of 38% over 2 years was painful for investors.
Fig 4 – Mundra Port Sales, Margins, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 4 – Mundra Port Sales, Margins, JainMatrix Investments

  • The port has rapidly increased business throughput over the last 5 years, venturing into new categories of goods, and working closely with importers and exporters to improve infrastructure.
  • Over the last 5 years growth has been rapid, with Sales, Profits and EPS  up by 36, 42 and 44% CAGR. However, we notice a slowing down of these numbers in the last 4 quarters. However the margins have been steady, with Operating Margins at 70% and PAT Margins at 50%, for APSEZ standalone, Fig 4.
  • IPO investors have seen a 4.5% CAGR return in price in five years since listing, see Fig 5. The Dividend has increased steadily, till the current 50%, i.e. Re 1 on FV Rs 2.
Fig 5 – Share Price and Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – Share Price and Dividend, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – Cash Flow, EPS and DE, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – Cash Flow, EPS and DE, JainMatrix Investments

  •  Debt-equity is 3.41 (sharply up due to Abbot Point purchase). This is high for an infra company, Fig 6.
  • For infra sector, cash is critical. APSEZ has a poor free Cash flow due to high investments in operations and the Abbot Point purchase. EPS (adjusted) is up 48% CAGR in recent years.
  • The PE has been in a range of 20-50 over 4 years. But current PE of 19.8 is at low end of this range. Fig 7.
Fig 7 – Price and PE Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 7 – Price and PE Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 8 – Price and EPS Chart, JainMatrix Investments

Fig 8 – Price and EPS Chart, JainMatrix Investments

  • The chart (Fig 8) plots the market price against the adjusted EPS over a 5-year period.  EPS shows us a steady quarterly increase indicating stable business performance, but flattening after Dec 2011.
  • Return Ratios are deteriorating – ROCE is 7.8% (14% in FY11) while RONW has stayed at 22%.
  • With EPS growth slowing, the PEG (3Yr) is now at 0.55, indicates undervalued status.

Peer Benchmarking and Financial Projections

We have compared APSEZ with leading listed Peers, Chart 9:

Chart 9 – Peer Benchmarking, JainMatrix Investments

Chart 9 – Peer Benchmarking, JainMatrix Investments

APSEZ has high valuations. It has good ROE, but a high DE ratio, and does not stand out on any other parameters.

The Financial forecasts, Chart 10, are now inclusive of Abbot Point Port operations.

Chart 10 – APSEZ Financial forecasts, JainMatrix Investments

Chart 10 – APSEZ Financial forecasts, JainMatrix Investments

The Abbot Point projections embedded above indicate that by 2014, the project will start contributing to the bottomline. Repayment of loans will certainly take longer.

Risks

  • The purchase of Abbot Point Australia is a massive bet on an Australian Port, and mining related exports from the region. A debt of Rs 9000 cr has been added to the balance sheet through the new subsidiary. The Coal mines by Adani Enterprises need to start producing coal by 2014. And Adani Power and Mega power plants in Gujarat need to import coal (involving renegotiation of their PPA agreements price with the Gujarat Government, as imported coal is costlier). Further there is Australian currency risk for the loan. Recently global coal prices fell, so some of the demand at Abbot Point may have fallen.
    • India is facing a massive power supply shortage, and Adani’s Coal and Port assets address fuel linkages needed for Power generation. In 2-3 years, the Abbot Point port should be working at full capacity (80-100MMT), feeding coal to Indian power plants. In the process, all these investments will bear fruit. In effect, Adani has set out on The Great Australian Adventure.
  • EX-IM slowdown: With a global slowdown, the exports-imports from India have slowed over the last few quarters. This has been aggravated by events such as ban on Iron ore exports and USD appreciation resulting in some fall in Imports.
    • APSEZ will be able to grow domestic market share of exports, but depends on economic conditions to sustain volume growth. Energy imports may be resilient, e.g. Coal, crude.
  • Gujarat High court in a May 2012 court order has stayed development work at APSEZ due to unauthorized construction over a 1,840-hectare enclave that was not vacant, and had no Central environmental clearance – this may delay additional construction for the SEZ area. It is also possible that Adani has been very aggressive in the growth and development execution.
    • Central environmental clearances are notoriously difficult to get in time. This is an unknown.
  • In Aug’12 it was reported that India’s home ministry has barred APSEZ from participating in two major port project bids because of security concerns. This report has yet to be confirmed.

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendation

  • Seaports are critical to India’s growth, as over 95% of imports and exports have to be transported by this route. The 6-9% GDP growth in India is now testing the capacities of Indian Ports. Also Govt. ports so far have been constrained in terms of capacity, speed of execution and pricing.
  • APSEZ’s Mundra Port and Indian operations are excellent. APSEZ will capture market share due to spare capacity, good connectivity, excellent facilities and proximity to demand centers.
  • It’s almost become routine in India that well established Corporates shake up the status quo and take up a large international acquisition. This invariably has a 3-5 year gestation period. Quarterly profits dry up and Investors see a drop in share prices. But Enterprises see this as part of a larger global strategy. (eg Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, Suzlon, Renuka Sugar, Tata Steel, etc, etc). Some succeed and some fail.
  • Similarly the Abbott Point acquisition is a large investment, which will soak cash for the next 2 years in terms of additional investments and interest. There are also associated business risks. But the plan appears to be well thought out, and investors with a Medium Risk appetite should BUY this stock with a minimum 2-year perspective. Investors with expectations of a quicker and steeper appreciation may be disappointed.
  • EPS growth may slow to ~ 40% in the next 3 years.
  • PE has fallen to new lows. The premium valuations commanded by APSEZ due to its pioneer status may only be regained over this Medium term.
  • Price Projections:
    • Our valuation prices the share at 136. Thus today it is available at a 18% discount to CMP.
    • By Apr ’14, the price projection is 215, a 84% appreciation from CMP 

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

Additional related research reports from JainMatrix Investments:

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it.

Subscribe to JainMatrix Investments, to receive such Investment Reports. SUBSCRIBE NOW See Offering

Disclaimer:

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

Adani Port: Infra play at good valuations V2

See the Sept 2012 update called ‘Adani Port – The Great Australian Adventure’ at LINK

  •  Date: May 30, 2012. Price: Rs 118, Large Cap with market cap of 23,600 crores
  • Advice: Medium Risk, High Gain stock at attractive entry point. Buy systematically.
  • JainMatrix valuation for Adani Port is 147, a 25% discount to CMP. Target: 181 by 04/13, and 231 by 04/14

Adani’s Mundra Port is the #1 private and #4 overall port in India. Growth has been rapid, with Sales up by 32%, Profits 53% and EPS 49% CAGR over 5 years. Debt Equity is 1.18 times. The recent $2b acquisition of Abbot Point Port Australia will double the scope of operations. While uncertainty exists about the viability and returns from this, it facilitates coal imports into India, demand for which is expected to soar. A recent dip in price makes valuations attractive. Investors can hold on and even look at this fall as an opportunity to invest.  

Adani Port – Description and Profile

  • Adani Port and SEZ (APSEZ), formerly Mundra, is a Gujarat based firm with FY12 revenues of 2500cr and PAT 1177cr (standalone).  Consolidated revenue is 3209cr.
  • Promoted by Adani Group, its businesses include Mundra, India’s largest private port with volumes of 64 MT (FY12), several Ports operating contracts, Australian operations and an SEZ area adjacent to the port, which is being developed on an area around 18,000 acres. Market share of APSEZ increased to 16.4% (FY12) from 14%.
  • APSEZ trades in a broad range of products, implying lower business risks. Fig 1.
  • It is # 4 among all Indian ports, and #1 in terms of private ports in India.
Adani Port Product Profile - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 1 – Adani Port Product Profile – JainMatrix Investments – Click to enlarge

  • Being a private port, APSEZ is free to price its services, unlike PSU ports in India.
  • It has ‘take or pay’ arrangements with many of the customers. This protects APSEZ from sudden drops in demand.
  • Connectivity and logistical facilities connect the Port, berthing and storage facilities to Roads, Rail, Airstrip and Pipelines for goods transportation.
APSEZ Port Cargo Volumes - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 2 – Cargo Volumes – JainMatrix Investments

  • The port has added a specialized passenger car exporting facility. A Power plant being set up by Adani group will cater to internal demand.
  • The SEZ facility enjoys a series of Indirect and Direct Tax benefits designed to encourage industrialization by the Gujarat Government.
  • The Shareholding pattern is Promoter group 77.5%, MFs/ DII 4.9%, FIIs 10.2%, Individuals retail & HNI 3.7% and Bodies Corporate + others 3.7%.
  • It’s good that Promoter holding is high. But as per delisting norms, they may need to reduce to 75% in the next year or so.
  • Adani group has cross-holdings in Adani Power, Adani Enterprises and APSEZ.
  • The SEZ area is organized into clusters to cater to different Industrial groups.

Events, News and Strategies executed

  • The port has rapidly increased business throughput over the last 5 years, venturing into new categories of goods, and working closely with importers and exporters to improve infrastructure.
APSEZ - Sales and Profits - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 3 – APSEZ – Sales and Profits – JainMatrix Investments – Click to enlarge

  • Over the last 5 years growth has been rapid, with Sales by 32%, Profits 53% and EPS 49% CAGR.
  • The margins have been steady, see Fig 3 – Operating Margins (70%) and PAT Margins (50%).
  • APSEZ and Adani group bought the Abbot Point coal terminal in May last year for $2 billion. It is synergistic with Adani’s purchase of Linc Energy’s Galilee coal project for $2.7bn in August 2010. The coal terminal, of capacity 50 MT a year, will facilitate the transport of coal from Australian mines to India.
  • It is also developing ports at Hazira, Mormugao, Visakhapatnam and Kandla in India and Dudgeon Point in Australia, in terms of terminal creation or port operator.
  • Vision – to increase the annual cargo handling capacity to 200 MMT by 2020.

Industry Note:

  • Seaports are critical to India’s growth and development, as over 80% of imports/ exports have to take this route. The 6-9% GDP growth in India is now testing the capacities of Indian ports. Also govt. ports so far have been unable to scale up and expand much, due to vision and execution constraints.
  • Major competition to APSEZ is from Kandla, JNPT and Pipavav on the Western shores. Mundra is able to provide port access to Gujarat, Maharashtra and North India based industry.
  • Kandla, JNPT and other govt. ports have not invested sufficiently in infrastructure due to government constraints. Pipavav is at an early stage of development. Also it is in South Gujarat and logistically more remote.
Mundra Port and SEZ

Chart 4 – Map of Mundra, Kandla and Pipavav Ports

  • Pipavav Port in Gujarat is owned by A.P. Moller-Maersk Group, is one of the largest container terminal operators in the world. Over the next few years, APM Terminals will transfer a lot of India business from other ports to Pipavav, and also build good infrastructure here.

Stock Valuation, Performance and Returns

  • The IPO in Nov 2007 was very successful. It was oversubscribed 115 times, and provided listing gains. However it was aggressively priced.
APSEZ - Investment and Dividends - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 5 – APSEZ – Investment and Dividends – JainMatrix Investments

  • The share price has fallen from a post IPO high of 264 to a low of 50 in Nov 2008, a recent high of 185 in Oct 2010, to today’s 118.
  • IPO investors have seen a 5% CAGR return in price in 5 years, see Fig 5.
  • The Dividend too has increased steadily, till the current 50% – Re 1 on FV Rs 2.
  • Debt-equity is 1.18 on Mar’12 (down from 2.7 at IPO time). This is good, for an infra company.
  • For an infra company, cash is critical. APSEZ has improved Cash flow from operations at 44% and EPS (adjusted) 48% CAGR in recent years, see Fig 6.
APSEZ - Cash Flow, EPS, DE - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 6 – APSEZ – Cash Flow, EPS, D/E – JainMatrix Investments – Click to enlarge

  • The PE range has been 20-50 times over the last 5 years. Current PE of 21 is at the low end of this range.
APSEZ - Price and PE Chart - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 7 – APSEZ – Price and PE Chart – JainMatrix Investments – Click to enlarge

  • Fig 8 plots the market price against the adjusted EPS over a 5-year period.
  • EPS shows us a steady quarterly increase indicating stable business performance.
APSEZ - Price and EPS Chart - JainMatrix Investments

Fig 8 – APSEZ – Price and EPS Chart – JainMatrix Investments

  • Healthy return Ratios – Return on Capital employed, ROCE is 14.6%; Return on Equity, ROE is 23%
  • PEG is in the range of 0.43, indicating indicates safety and undervalued status

Peer Benchmarking and Financial Projections

We have compared APSEZ with leading listed Peers:

APSEZ - Benchmarking - JainMatrix Investments

Chart 8 – APSEZ – Benchmarking – JainMatrix Investments

APSEZ leads on Profitability, and Debt parameters. It also commands a premium Pricing.

The Financial projections for APSEZ below are not inclusive of new acquisition of Abbot Point Port, about which we do not have sufficient detail.

APSEZ - Financial Projections - JainMatrix Investments

Chart 9 – APSEZ – Financial Projections – JainMatrix Investments

Risks

  • Falling exports: The Indian exports have been affected by the ban on Iron ore exports, changes in govt stance on agri exports and falling demand in Europe.
    • APSEZ will be able to grow market share of exports, but depends on economic conditions to sustain volume growth. Imports are expected to be quite resilient, e.g. Coal.
  • Gujarat High court in May 2012  has stayed development work at APSEZ due to no environmental clearance
    • This may delay additional construction for the SEZ area. Central environmental clearances are notoriously difficult and get delayed. This is an unknown.
  • The Abbot Point Port in Australia was acquired for $2 billion. While this has a good synergy with current operations, there is insufficient clarity on returns and funding /repayment schedule of loans.
  • International business uncertainties, such as: 1) new taxes by Australian govt. on the profits of international companies engaged in mining operations in Australia and 2) and a fall in international Coal Prices that have fallen 21% since 1stJan 2012.
    • These may not directly affect APSEZ. However the returns from Australian investments may be affected.
  • Recent rumours against Adani Group were that it has powerful political linkages, and interests in illegal mining in Karnataka/ Andhra Pradesh. These rumors affected investor sentiment in Adani Industries. This could also affect APSEZ in the future. However APSEZ is a different business, and the possibilities of this are remote.

Opinion, Outlook and Recommendation

  • APSEZ will capture market share due to good connectivity, spare capacity, better access and good facilities. The spare capacities with APSEZ will be rapidly commissioned in next few years.
  • EPS may slow to 40-50% growth range over the next 3 years due to higher base effect. But this is also high.
  • PE has fallen to very low and attractive levels, and combined with robust business performance makes this an attractive entry point.
  • SEZ revenues are lumpy, driven by sale of land to industries. However the infrastructure provided and industrialization will drive this business.
  • It is the nature of markets that sentiment makes share prices fall far below or appreciate far above the fundamental value. APSEZ is underpriced at these levels. In a falling interest rate scenario, APSEZ will continue to outperform as it lowers its cost of debt and delivers on projects.
  • APSEZ is a Medium Risk, High Gain stock. At these levels and in this trajectory, it is a BUY.
  • Price Projections:
    • Our valuation prices the share at 147. Thus today it is available at a 25% discount.
    • By Apr ’13, the price projection is 181, a 53% appreciation from CMP
    • By Apr ’14, the price projection is 231, a 96% appreciation from CMP

JainMatrix Knowledge Base:

Additional Infrastructure sector reports from JainMatrix Investments:

  • KEC InternationalLINK
  • BGR Energy SystemsLINK
  • IRB Infrastructure Developers – LINK

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it.

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Disclaimer:

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

‘Bottom Fishing in 2012’ Review of Portfolio – April’12

Date: April 18, 2012

In Jan this year, JainMatrix Investments published a report, ‘Bottom fishing in 2012’ …… To read this now, click on LINK

  • The report indicated that: ‘A bottom is in place, and the price reversal has started‘; there is ‘a change in sentiment‘, and ‘a coordinated rise’ in the share prices.
  • A lot has happened since then, including a crude oil price rise, a Union Budget, and even a lowering of Interest Rates by RBI !!

Lets review the suggested portfolio at the three months milestone – how has it performed?

 Company

Reported 

Jan 17th

Review Feb 20th

Gain/ Loss %

Review

Apr 18th

Gain/ Loss %

Sector

Mkt Cap k Crores

Find out more?

BGR Energy Systems

229

339

48

358

42

Power

M – 2.6

LINK

KEC International

49.1

61

24

63.8

30

Power

S – 1.6

LINK

IRB Infrastructures

153

208

36

198

30

Infra

M – 6.6

Yes Bank

285

364

28

370

30

Bank

L – 13

LINK

Titan Industries

185

232

25

240

27

Consumer

L – 21.3

LINK

Hanung Toys & Textiles

128

140.6

10

147

15

Consumer

S – 0.4

LINK

Binani Industries

121

124.1

2.5

122

1

Cement +

S – 0.4

Diamond Power Infra

111

138

24

110

-1

Power

S – 0.4

Adani Port & SEZ (Mundra)

135

150.5

12

130

-4

Ports, SEZ

L – 26

LINK

Average

 

 

23.2

 

20.6

 

 

 

NIFTY

4,967

5,564

12

5,300

7

Sensex

16,466

18,289

11

17,392

6

CNX Midcap

6,764

7,925

17.2

7,700

14

k – ‘000

BSE Small Cap

6,290

7,116

13.1

6,914

10

M-midcap

Observations:

  • Definitely the portfolio is down compared to Feb evaluation. Even so, since Jan, it has gained 20.6%!!
  • It has outperformed even the best of these Indices, CNX Midcap by over 6%!!
  • There are several changes in the ranking of individual stocks.
  • Note the added Link to the Report on IRB Infrastructure, added in this period.

Based on the above, we strongly suggest:

  • This portfolio will appreciate. Invest but with a minimum one year perspective.
  • Subscribe to reports from JainMatrix Investments. Receive actionable, high quality insights and recommendation for Equity investments. Boost your returns.
  • This is an aggressive portfolio. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. Invest monthly in a SIP form.

Note:

  • Past performance is no indication of future results.
  • Spread the cheer. Share this letter with friends and fellow investors; invite them to also subscribe.
  • To Subscribe, use this Signup Form CLICK
  • Check back on the website www.jainmatrix.com for updates.

Do you find this site useful? You can:

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  6. Add your comments/ queries below

Disclaimers:

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that if the JainMatrix website recommends a stock, the researcher has already invested in it.

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/

Bottom fishing in 2012 ……

————————————————————————————————————————————

JainMatrix Investments has published a review of this portfolio, please click  on the link  October Review

Article Published  January 17th 2012

A Happy New Year to you!                                                             January 17th 2012

In my first post of 2012, I’d like to mull over a very basic question. There are a number of fundamentally good companies, firms in good sectors that are showing QoQ growth and profits, with upside potential and great order booked numbers. I’d like to invest in such firms.

But my worry has been that along with the Sensex, these firms have seen their share price falling week after week. The question is:  How much can a good company fall? More importantly, when can we be sure that the share price fall is complete, a bottom is in place, and the reversal has started?

If we can answer this for a few companies, it can be a great investing opportunity. I suggest the following 9 firms as turnaround candidates.

1.      Hanung Toys & Textiles: CMP 128.

  • This mid sized consumer products firm has 75% revenues from exports. Its share has jumped by 67% in the last 1 month, on high volumes.
  • My fundamental analysis indicates it’s a buy. In my report called Hanung – Look for the rebound, I had predicted such a reversal. Here’s a link to the report
  • Here is a one month view of this stock:
JainMatrix Investments, Hanung Toys

Hanung Toys – One month view (click to enlarge)

  • But the two-year view of the stock shows the extent of fall. The converse of this is that this share has a long climb before it, to even reach past highs.
JainMatrix Investments, Hanung Toys

Hanung Toys – Two year view. Click to Enlarge

2.      KEC International. CMP 49.1

Background:

  • KEC is a power transmission EPC firm owned by the RP Goenka group
  • It has increased EPS 30% CAGR for 5 years, and over 50% of the revenues from international projects.
  • A recent US acquisition in the transmission towers – SAE Towers – gives it 30% growth in balance sheet and a foothold in the America geography
  • Overall margins have been steady at 10% for the last 4 years
  • Recent small but synergistic diversifications in India give it an entry into Power Systems and Cables, and new verticals like Railways, Telecom and Water.

Situation:

  • In the last 4 weeks, the share has gained 53%, again on good volumes.
  • Here are the details, in a one month view:
JainMatrix Investments, KEC International

KEC International – One month view

  • Here is a two-year view of the stock that shows the extent of the fall. One of the issues is poor sentiments in the Power sector. However, for KEC, the fall is overdone.
JainMatrix Investing, KEC International

KEC International – Two year view

3.      BGR Energy Systems CMP 229

  • It is a leading power generation EPC firm. A detailed analysis is available on the link
  • The stock is up 35% in the last 2 weeks
JainMatrix Investments, BGR Energy Systems

BGR Energy Systems – One month view

The fall in the last two years has been massive, as we can see:

JainMatrix Investing, BGR Energy Systems

BGR Energy Systems – Two year view

4.      Diamond Power Infrastructure – CMP 111

  • This Gujarat based small cap is an integrated power sector player into Cables, transmission towers, transformers and conductors
  • It has aggressively expanded capacities, and maintains a higher proportion of in house manufacture in its EPC projects.
  • In the last month, the share has risen 51% from its low.
JainMatrix Investments, Diamond Power Infrastructure

Diamond Power Infrastructure – One month view

  • If you see the two-year chart, the extent of the fall is obvious. Again this is partly due to a poor perception of the Power sector combined with the fall of the Sensex. The fall is overdone, and the stock should bounce back.
JainMatrix Investments, Diamond Power Infrastructure

Diamond Power Infrastructure – Two year view

5.      Titan Industries, CMP 185

  • It is the Tata group company that owns the Titan and Tanishq brands
  • It is a large Cap, consumer-oriented firm with a big retail presence. A detailed analysis is available at link
  • The share is up 21% in the last one month, as we can see:
JainMatrix Investing, Titan Industries

Titan – One month view

  • The one-year view of Titan shows that it has fallen sharply in this period. It surely has some catching up to do.
JainMatrix Investments, Titan Industries

Titan – One year view

6.      Mundra / Adani Port and SEZ, CMP 135

  •  This Port and SEZ major is part of Adani group. It is an infrastructure stock.
  • A detailed report is available on Link
  • A recent development in this stock was the acquisition of Abbot Point Port in Australia. This was seen as an expensive acquisition, and this was one reason for the recent fall
  • This share is up by 25% from a recent one month low, as we can see:
JainMatrix Investing, Mundra / Adani Port and SEZ

Mundra Port – One month view

  • The high for Mundra/ Adani was 184.5 in mid 2009 and the share is now 36% lower than this in spite of the recent rise:
JainMatrix Investments, Mundra / Adani Port and SEZ

Mundra Port – Two year view

7.      IRB Infrastructure – CMP 153

  • This is a leading Roads Developer and Operator in India.
  • It is on a rapid growth path even in the current slow environment. It has a very good portfolio of projects, many of which are operational / toll roads, giving it a predictable and visible cash flow. It has restricted new business bids to larger and more lucrative road projects, where it has competitive advantages. Order Booked are around 10,000 crores.
  • In the medium term, the IRB stock has been suffering from a sentiment driven fall. In the last few weeks, however, it has recovered 24% from a low of 123.5 to the current 152 level
JainMatrix Investments, IRB Infrastructure

IRB Infrastructure Developers – One month view

Over a 2-year period, we can see that the stock has fallen significantly, and this should reverse in a falling interest rate scenario.

JainMatrix Investments, IRB Infrastructure

IRB Infrastructure – Two year view

8.      Binani Industries – Cement and metals manufacturer. CMP 121

  • It is a holding company with interests in Cement, Zinc, Glass Fiber, composites, etc.
  • However, the significant valuable asset is Binani Cement, which was recently merged into the holding company. This itself has a turnover of 2000 crores, and had a market cap of 1600 crores (before merger).
  • Other assets are not significant loss making entities. As of now, Binani Industries has a market cap of just 360 crores. The stock is under valued.
  • The share price has rebounded by 39% from recent lows.
JainMatrix Investments, Binani Industries

Binani Industries – One month view

The 2-year picture of Binani Industries shows the spike in 2011 around the time of the merger with Binani Cement, and a subsequent fall.

JainMatrix Investments, Binani Industries

Binani Industries – Two year view

9.      Yes Bank, CMP 285

  • It is a leading private sector bankA detailed analysis of this stock is available on the link
  • The share has shot up in the last month by 24% from a recent low.
JainMatrix Investments, Yes Bank

Yes Bank – One month view

  • The two-year view of the stock indicates that the current price is significantly below the highs, even though business performance is steady.
JainMatrix Investments, Yes Bank

Yes Bank – Two year view

Risks:

  • A close look at any of the 2-year charts of these shares indicates that there are several 20-40% bounces on the way down. There is a small probability that this too is just a bounce. However, several factors build my confidence that this is more than just a small reversal.
  1. We have indications (see article) that the interest rate cycle has peaked in India; that the Inflation too has peaked. So this could be a sign of economic improvements.
  2. The INR has weakened considerably. This can be a booster to export oriented firms.
  3. The coordinated fashion in which above nine firms (and others in the market) have risen indicates a change in sentiment, and perhaps lowering of investment negativity.
  4. At the beginning of the New Year, many investors, especially foreign, open their books and make fresh investments.
  • Investment in turnaround companies is inherently a higher risk approach, but with potentially higher returns. Take this approach only if you have a high-risk appetite.
  • One view of the above stocks can be that the best is already past, and the resurgence in the last month is unlikely to be repeated. My view is that at this stage fresh investments in these stocks are less risky than a month ago; the reversal is more likely to be sustained, and most of these stocks have a long way to rise before they are back at their highs, even though on valuation parameters, many should be near their all time highs.
  • It is possible that an external negative event takes place that makes share prices fall below these recent lows. However at this juncture, this looks like a small probability event.
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Disclaimer:

These reports and documents have been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Ltd. They are not to be copied, reused or made available to others without prior permission of JainMatrix Investments. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com

Also see: https://jainmatrix.wordpress.com/disclaimer/