Govt set for high FY22 tax collection; India among least prepared for automation in APAC, says survey

28th July 2021

At JainMatrix Investments, we want to think positive, and get back on Track, so here is what we’re reading:

  1. Govt set for high FY22 tax collection; Q1 is INR 5.6 lakh cr: Icra – ET – 28th July
  2. India among least prepared for automation in APAC, says survey – ET – 28th July
  3. Scientists find green option to plastic – TOI – 21st July
  4. Maruti crosses 50L cumulative sales in rural markets – TOI – 21st July
  5. Indian IT industry to post 11% revenue recovery in FY22 – ET – 07th July
  6. These states to witness good rains in July – Mint – 07th July
  7. Morgan Stanley says a bull run is only getting started, here’s why – MC – 27th June
  8. Health, credit, jobs: FM announces 8 measures – BS – 27th June
  9. Indian Railways approves 660 more trains – HT – 19th June
  10. India’s Covid Vaccination Rate Jumps 60% In June – MC – 19th June
  11. India offers huge potential for digital banks: Report – IndExp – 10th June
  12. 74% employees keen on remote work: Microsoft Index – Mint – 10th June
  13. Unlock status, rules and guidelines – Mint – 10th June
  14. Despite covid woes, profits of Indian firms hit a six-year high – Mint – 24th May
  15. India will be on faster growth path fuelled by infra – TOI – 24th May
  16. How the coming population bust will transform the world – ET – 24th May
  17. Overall coronavirus situation stabilizing in India: Govt – M’Control – 17th May
  18. Exports rise 80% to $7b during May 1-7 – Fin.Express – 17th May
  19. Crude oil and commodities rally as global recovery gains pace – FXstreet – 05th May
  20. Steel sector does well – Indian Express – 05th May
  21. RBI announces loan relief, Rs 50K cr liquidity to tide over Covid – BusinessStd – 05th May
  22. Tata gets nod to acquire BigBasket – (M’Control) – 03rd May
  23. Hot Sectors – a) Ports – $82b being invested in ports (M’Control)
  24. Budget 2021 lays foundation for $5 trillion economy – M’Control – 04th Feb
  25. India pivots to top ESG nation through Budget – ET – 04th Feb
  26. Towards $5 T: What is holding India back? – FinExpress – 07th Jan
  27. India should follow agri – led industrial growth model – BT – 07th Jan
  28. NBFC sector rebounded in six months of FY21, says RBI – LiveMint – 29th Dec
  29. Power sector limping back to normal – ET – 29th Dec
  30. Digital is the way forward in a post-Covid world – LiveMint – 16th Dec
  31. Disinvestment will now gain momentum – ET – 16th Dec
  32. India may grow at 11% in 2022, says N Chandra – M’Control – 13th Dec
  33. Six early trends in financial sector – M’control – 09th Dec
  34. View: How tech makes it possible to solve corruption – ET – 09th Dec
  35. Indian economy back on track in Q2 – FinExpress – 20th Nov
  36. India’s health spend low, needs to be made priority – BS – 20th Nov
  37. GST collections at 8-month high – IndianExpress – 05th Nov
  38. Economy to reach pre-Covid growth by fiscal-end – BS – 05th Nov
  39. COVID in India on recovery – BS – 05th Nov
  40. India reopens its doors, restores most visas – ToI – 22nd Oct 
  41. E-tailing to become USD 200-bn by 2025: Report – ETNow – 22nd Oct 
  42. FM’s consumption boost to turbocharge e-comm – BS – 13th Oct 
  43. Low finance rates leading to increased home sales – ET – 13th Oct 
  44. Gig economy to lead 80% of blue-collar jobs – BS – 13th Oct 
  45. How robust is India’s recovery? – IndianExpress – 5th Oct 
  46. Covid may have peaked in September – ToI – 5th Oct 
  47. Digital payments: Pandemic does what demon couldn’t – ET – 01st Oct
  48. Healthcare Reforms – National Med. Commission started – (ET) – 25th Sept 
  49. Export show signs of a revival – (LiveMint) – 25th Sept 
  50. Economic recovery sustains momentum through first week of Sept – (ET) – 10th Sept 
  51. Rice, sugar push up Q1 farm exports by 23% – (ET) – 10th Sept 
  52. IPL set to kick-start consumption cycle – (LiveMint) – 30th July 
  53. Unlock 4: Metros to start, no lockdowns outside containment zones – (LiveMint) 30July 
  54. Mfg. policies of govt to help firms shift base to India: ICEA – (BS) – 26th Aug 
  55. RBI at end of rate cut cycle, govt must play role for revival: Economists – (BS) – 26th Aug 
  56. Railway earnings, Power generation: weekly indicators about economy – (BS) 18th Aug 
  57. Import embargo plan for 101 defense items to boost indigenisation – (FE) 18th Aug 
  58. Must improve ease of business to be a mfg. hub: Industry captains– (ET) – 07th Aug 
  59. Here’s what Indians have been spending on during the pandemic – (ET) – 07th Aug 
  60. Redesign, rethink whole economy for success in post-Covid world – (ToI) – 05th Aug 
  61. Joblessness at pre-covid level as India unlocks more – (LiveMint) – 05th Aug
  62. Expect V-shaped recovery over next few months: Ridham Desai – (ET) – 30th July    
  63. A major change is shift in format: Panel on education – (ET) – 30th July 
  64. Hiring optimism grows as demand gathers pace – (LiveMint) – 20th July 
  65. IT may see surge in offshoring biz – (LiveMint) – 20th July
  66. The current wave of rail reforms is actually “historic” – (ET) – 17th July 
  67. Mapping India’s Post-Covid Capex Recovery – (BQ) – 17th July 
  68. View: Never a better time than now to build for India – (ET) – 13th July 
  69. India at the cusp of a huge explosion of demand: Panasonic CEO – (ET) – 13th July
  70. Record surge in sales of vacuum cleaners, dishwashers, DIY products – (ET) – 07th July 
  71. Labour shortage, factories go the extra mile to woo migrant workers – (ET) – 07th July 
  72. PMI, GST mop-up point to a pickup in economic activity – (LiveMint) – 02nd July 
  73. India Inc’s big bet on Bharat saving the day – (LiveMint) – 02nd July
  74. Green shoots in Bharat lead country’s economic revival – (LiveMint) – 30th June 
  75. Opinion | The onus is on us to conquer fear – (LiveMint) – 30th June 
  76. Not two years, 200 projects finished during lockdown: Railways – (ToI) – 29th June 
  77. Bankers in India are more productive working from home – (LiveMint) – 29th June 
  78. Global equity markets are likely to continue their up move – (BizStd) – 27th June
  79. Migration is reversing: Trains from UP, Bihar run full – (ToI) – 27th June 
  80. Indicators of economic recovery in India – (EcoTimes) – 24th June
  81. Get India fully back to business, says India Inc – (EcoTimes) – 24th June
  82. Post-crisis, increase integration with global economy – (EcoTimes) – 20th June
  83. Kharif planting rises 40% on strong monsoon start – (EcoTimes) – 20th June 
  84. Maruti Suzuki’s model can make India a global mobile mfg hub – (EcoTimes) – 18th June 
  85. Indian economy to recover very fast: HDFC Bank CEO – (EcoTimes) – 18th June 
  86. A COVID-19 workplace readiness tool for organisations – (IISC) – 17th June 
  87. It is time to be a little positive on financial space – (EcoTimes) – 17th June 
  88. Exports bounce back to last year’s levels in June – (EcoTimes) – 16th June 
  89. Unemployment rate declines sharply as India exits lockdown – (Livemint) – 16th June 
  90. Local trains, Mumbai’s lifeline, resumes services – (Livemint) – 15th June 
  91. Construction work restarts at over 100 projects in NCR – (EcoTimes) – 15th June 
  92. Govt urges use of bicycles, EVs to mitigate risks – (EcoTimes) – 13th June 
  93. Digital is the Key to Unlock this Disruption’ – (EcoTimes) – 13th June 
  94. ‘Put the money in Indian stocks, forget till 2025’ – (EcoTimes) – 12th June 
  95. Loans are getting cheaper, HDFC cuts lending rate – (EcoTimes) – 12th June
  96. View: Replacing China imports possible, even in EVs – (EcoTimes) – 11th June 
  97. ‘Time for Bold Investments, not conservative decisions’ – (Livemint) – 11th June 
  98. After steep falls, June exports show signs of improvement (EcoTimes) – 10th June 
  99. Partial lockdown lift gives work to 21 million; not salaried class (EcoTimes) – 10th June 
  100. Covid-19 is no plague or cancer; fear psychosis unnecessary (EcoTimes) – 09th June
  101. Import-intensive spending likely to feel the pinch – (EcoTimes) – 09th June 
  102. Getting growth back on track is non-negotiable: Uday Kotak (EcoTimes) – 08th June 
  103. Post Covid Opportunities – Global Work Force (Nasdaily) – 8th June
  104. Impetus To Realty Demand, But More Needs To Be Done (NDTV) – 06th June
  105. Collections improving, demand picking up in rural India (EcoTimes) – 06th June
  106. View: How to get Make-in-India to work this time (EcoTimes) – 05th June 
  107. Effects of Unlock 1.0 as new guidelines come into play – (IndianExpress) – 05th June 
  108. Cabinet approves amendment of Essential Commodities Act (Livemint) – 04th June 
  109. Goods movement pickup in May signals economic revival (Livemint) – 04th June 
  110. PM’s First Major Address On Economy After Unlock 1.0 (ndtv.com) – 03rd June 
  111. Five Indian states are leading in the recovery from lockdown – (EcoTimes) – 03rd June
  112. India’s 3-phase ‘Unlock’ Plan starts at last (ToI) – 1st June 
  113. Supply to improve post-unlock 1.0; demand pickup may be slower (Livemint) – 1st June 
  114. Over 1.65 lakh people traveled in 2,198 flights since Monday: Puri (Livemint) – 30th May 
  115. The global supply chain is being reconfigured, India can gain (EcoTimes) – 30th May
  116. Nearly 65,000 cured from COVID-19 in India, 42% recovery rate (Livemint) – 29th May 
  117. An India lockdown survey: The good, bad and the ugly (Eco Times) – 29th May 
  118. How is India doing against COVID19 in 3 graphs – 28th May
  119. Covid-19 proves the importance of telecom in India (Eco Times) – 28th May
  120. India runs on Rails: MORE TRAINS BASED ON DEMAND (Fin Expr.) – 27 May
  121. MY TAXI HAS VEHICLES WITH PPE KITS, CURTAINS (Eco Times) – 27th May
  122. COVID-19 Is Fast-Tracking Digital Transformation – 26th May 
  123. HOW DHARAVI IS TACKLING THE COVID INFECTION RATE – 26th May 
  124. AFTER 2 MONTHS, FLIGHTS ARE BACK – 25th May
  125. HOW INDIA INC. GOES BACK TO WORK, LEADERSPEAK (Eco Times) – 25th May
  126. A THIRD OF NSE MFG FIRMS BACK AT WORK (Eco Times) : 23rd May
  127. MAHINDRA FACTORY – COVID CARE READY – 23rd May
  128. We actually wrote about the need for a lockdown in Mar 2020 – CALL IN THE INDIAN ARMY TO HANDLE THIS EMERGENCY – 20th March

We have been tracking this infection since March when it came to India and we had to declare the lockdown. Today, 6 months on, we are at a different phase in the economy. We have to understand that this virus will not go away, it is we who have to adjust to it. Even as we maintain social distancing, and wear masks, and wash hands regularly, the important thing now is to dive back into business and achieve some semblance of normalcy.

Regards,

Punit Jain

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain and JM has no ownership or known financial interests in any company mentioned in this note. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

How is India doing against COVID19 in 3 graphs

Its been 3 months since Covid infection hit India. I believe India has done well so far. But lets check out the facts using just 3 graphs in Logarithmic Scale. (click to expand image)

  1. India’s COVID-19 Curve, compared to other countries. (Source visualcapitalist.com)
  2. Total Coronavirus Cases in India (Source: worldometers.info)
  3. Total Coronavirus Deaths in India (Source: worldometers.info)

jainmatrix investments, India on Covid

Thoughts? Comments? Please share below.

Regards, Punit Jain

COVID 19 – Call in the Indian Army to Handle this Emergency

Dear Friends,

Let me start with the worst case scenario for India.

  • 60% of Indians get infected with Covid-19. Thats 78 crore people *
  • 5% of these are serious and need hospitalization. That’s 3.9 crore people. # We dont have so much healthcare capacity
  • 1% of the infected succumb to the infection. Thats 78 lakh people. #

However this is 2 months away from today, if it happens.

It is within our powers to prevent this from happening.

Even though the Indian govt. health dept. and administration is doing whatever it can to prevent this, it is grappling with several constraints:

  • Many people know Covid 19 by now, but they are not really changing behaviour to deal with it
  • The persons identified for isolation are not following orders and escaping / moving around freely, exposing others to the danger
  • At this stage the infection in India is at Stage 2 (local transmission – tracking and isolation of infected, contact tracing and isolation of potentials) and if not stopped, it moves to Stage 3 (community transmission – the virus is out of control and infects everyone who is not isolated) @
  • We also do not know the real number of infected people until we have sufficient Testing. My feeling is that people with symptoms are not being tested unless the govt. hospital doctor recommends this. And access to these doctors is not easy.

We suggest 2 solutions:

  • Call in the Indian Army with its 14 lakh highly trained people to inject discipline and boost Covid 19 administration in all states of India.
  • Start Testing for Covid 19 on a massive scale. All hospitals, private sector Diagnostic chains such as Dr Lal Pathlabs, Thyrocare, Metropolis Healthcare, etc may be allowed. I believe Health Ministry is enabling this, but can this be started today?

I’m hardly an expert on healthcare. But I understand compounding. The number of infected people are growing by compounding. I also understand probabilities. My estimate is that we now have a 50% probability of moving to Stage 3. Unless we do something about it NOW.

I also believe every country has the power to control this infection if it isolates itself and acts fast enough. South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore moved fast and were able to flatten the Infection curve and stay in Stage 2. See fig 1.

jainmatrix investments

Fig 1 – Source John Hopkins Univ. India is not in this as it had just crossed 100 infections on 13th Mar.

We also saw that China was able to deal with Covid-19 over 2-3 months due to a very tough administration and hard measures, easier to do in a communist system. Here in India the administration does not have command and punitive powers. They are also not geared up to do this. The Indian Army needs to be deployed to do this.

The Indian Army needs to work with the Health ministry, govt. hospitals and local administration, to monitor the airport screening, contact tracing, isolation facilities and govt. hospitals. The Isolated and infected people logistics, people security and healthcare supply chains have to be supported and enforced.

We have to fight Covid 19 before it becomes a national calamity. Its better to over-react early and prevent the problem than to react late.

Stay safe and healthy,

Punit Jain

PS – this has nothing to do with investing. But it affects all of us. I write this not to alarm people (this is a known danger) but request an urgent solution to a visible problem.

  1. * Germany is in stage 3 and has projected that this proportion of its people may get infected
  2. # These are stats available from China and few other countries in public domain
  3. @ Eco Times Article on 18/03

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain and JM has no ownership or known financial interests in any company mentioned in this note. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.