Tag: JainMatrix Investments

Should you Invest or Prepay your Home loan? – Jan 2025

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Introduction

Last month, my conversation with an investor went like this –

Rahul (not his real name): I have a home loan of ₹ 75 lakhs, of 20 years duration, and am paying an EMI every month. Right now I have cash available with me of ₹ 10 Lakhs. I have already been an investor in Equity markets for 10 years. Should I use this amount to repay my Home loan, or should I add it to my investments in the markets?

The rest of the conversation, I share below in a formal manner:

Approach – Review Rahul’s Profile:

Deciding whether to use cash savings to pay off the home loan or invest in equity depends on several factors, including Rahul’s financial goals, loan terms, risk profile and the potential returns on investment. Here’s how to think through this:

1. Consider his Home Loan Details

  • Interest Rate: Is Rahul’s home loan interest rate high (above 10-11%)? For Rahul it was 10%.
  • Loan Tenure Remaining: If he is in the early years of the home loan, paying off part of the principal can save more in interest, than in the latter half of the repayment period.
  • Tax Benefits: If he is availing tax deductions on interest (Section 24(b)) and principal repayment (Section 80C in India), consider how much benefit he is getting. The real post tax cost of Home loan may be lower, so from a 10% Home Loan rate, he may be actually paying about 6-7%.

2. Evaluate his Market Investment Details

  • Equity Returns: Historically, equity markets have offered average returns of 12-13% over the long term per the Sensex. However, the returns can vary depending upon Rahul’s actual market instruments – Equity Mutual Funds, Direct Equity Portfolio or ETFs. For Rahul it was 15% compounded on average over the last 7 years.
  • Rahul’s Risk Tolerance: Is he comfortable with short-term investment fluctuations? Equity investments certainly face market risks and volatility.
  • Time Horizon: Equity Investments generally perform better over a longer horizon (3+ years). If Rahul has a shorter time horizon for his equity investments, adding to these may not be a good idea.

3. Assess his Financial Situation

  • Emergency Fund: Rahul must ensure he has 6-12 months of expenses saved in a liquid emergency fund before considering his options.
  • Other Debts: High-interest debts (e.g., credit cards, personal loans) should be prioritized for repayment before addressing the home loan.
  • Working years: Are Rahul’s working years before retirement more than the Home Loan Tenure?
  • Retirement Goal: Is he on track for retirement savings? Equity investing might help achieve these if the Time Horizon is larger.

Calculate Two Data Points for Rahul

  • Tax adjusted cost of Home Loan: let’s assume that for Rahul from (1) that it is 7%.
  • Rahul’s expected Equity market returns: The past is apparent, while the future is unpredictable. However we can be conservative and project lesser returns in future than in the past. As noted in (2) Rahul got 15% returns compounded from his mix of Equity MFs and Direct equity. Let’s project future returns from these instruments at a lower 12%. Tax here is difficult to project but if fair tax planning is happening, capital gains can be within annual zero tax limits.

With the above data points it becomes obvious that for Rahul, Equity gives higher returns of 12% than the cost of Home Loan (7%).

Conclusion

  • The immediate conclusion would be that Rahul should use the 10 L funds in Equity investments and continue to repay the Home Loan as per the original plan. Here Rahul should be able to grow his incremental savings of ₹10 L by (12 – 7) = 5% annual average over the duration of the Home Loan.  

However several caveats and conditions can color or even change this conclusion:

  • The Home Loan repayment is an almost fixed commitment of monthly payments. There can, of course, be some interest rate resets, but otherwise, EMI and tenure are fixed. On the other hand, the Equity market returns can be volatile and unpredictable in the short term. So Rahul has to be comfortable with taking on these uncertainties and both commitments together.
  • If the Home Loan tenure is longer than expected working years of Rahul, it may be wiser to repay the Home Loan partly with the Rs 10 L, reduce the tenure, and plan for an EMI-free retirement
  • If the returns that Rahul projects to get from Equity markets are on average 9% or less, then the benefit is lower, and it may be better to repay the Home Loan than to invest in equity.
  • If Rahul’s job or business future cash flows are uncertain or constrained, early repayment of Home Loan again might be the prudent choice.

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Disclaimers

  • Investors new to our Research Analyst service can look at our OFFERINGS, and sign up using the PRICING AND PAYMENT OPTIONS link, to grow their Direct Equity investment portfolios.
  • This note has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JMI. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
  • Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a financial planner or RIA Registered Investment Advisor.
  • JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered Research Analyst since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logos / brand name –

Business Standard – Revealing the 100X strategy: ultimate wealth creation

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I came across an excellent article on Business Standard.

This is very useful for investors new to Equity. Several important concepts are covered here.

Do Read –

https://www.business-standard.com/economy/analysis/revealing-the-100x-strategy-the-ultimate-instrument-of-wealth-creation-124121701224_1.html

Warm regards

Punit Jain

Mid and Small Cap Stock Trends Nov 2024

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27th Nov 2024

JainMatrix Investments, a Research Analyst firm, is pleased to present a note on Mid and Small Cap Market Trends. We have done some research and here are the key findings:

  • The Sensex peaked recently at 85,900 (26Sep) and then fell to 77,100 (21Nov), a fall of 10.2%. For the NIFTY Midcap 100 the fall has been sharper at 11.7%, over the same period.
  • The fall can be described as a recovery to better valuations, and investors can look at starting (or continuing) with equity investments and SIPs at these levels.
  • Our rating and ranking of attractive sectors is:
    • Financials (Bank / NBFC)
    • Power sector
    • Auto and Auto Ancillary (manufacturing)
    • Infotech
    • Consumer QSR,
    • Also travel, tourism and hospitality, pharma and healthcare.
  • Investing Trends: The trends we notice are:
    • Valuations have corrected sharply, but are not cheap yet.
    • However, valuations can remain expensive for extended periods, as we saw in 2004-07, and if they do not get excessive, it should not inhibit investors.
    • Mfg. and IT services can have an export component, the rest are more domestic-focused
    • From 2021 till recently, we have not had big broad corrections, but several waves of sectoral rises and micro-corrections, such as Infotech, Speciality Chemicals, Defense, PSUs, Shipyards and Rail stocks.
    • These cycles have in aggregate kept valuations in check.
    • IPOs too may now become more sober in terms of pricing and valuations, but this route continues to work, and throw up exciting companies, and encourage risk-taking promoters and Private Equity/startup investors.
  • We do not want to choose or trade-off between Large-cap, Mid-cap and small-cap stocks.
  • Large caps have had a big correction as the FIIs pulling out have been more invested in these.
  • Mid-caps present the potential ideas, and if they scale, they are the large caps of tomorrow (and good investments too).
  • Small caps are a higher risk and potentially higher return play and investors with such a risk appetite can look for success here. However, these need deeper primary research as firms are not very good at communicating their story and progress, and may even be secretive.

Suggestions and Disclaimers

  • Investors new to our service may look at our OFFERINGS, and sign up using the PRICING AND PAYMENT OPTIONS link, to grow their Direct Equity portfolios.
  • This note has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JMI. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
  • Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor.
  • JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logos / brand name –

Hyundai Motor India IPO – This Time It’s Different

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  • Date: 15th Oct
  • IPO is open from 15-17th Oct, at ₹ 1,865-1,960/share
  • The IPO is the largest from India, to raise ₹ 27,870 cr.
  • Large Cap. with mkt cap ₹ 1,59,000 cr.
  • Sector: Automobile
  • Opinion: Buy with a 2-year perspective

Summary

Why Hyundai India: As the #2 company in Indian passenger vehicles, Hyundai Motor India has been popular for its attractive cars. Combining good riding with fair prices, it’s products have held up well against Maruti’s value offerings and the Indian, European and Japanese automobile firms. Capacity utilization is close to 100%, so the new plant in Pune by next year will be useful. The financials and balance sheet look healthy to support needed investments. HMI’s auto products have evolved in sync with Indian consumers, and we expect this to continue.

Why now in IPO: 1) This will be India’s largest IPO by value, aiming to raise about ₹ 28,000 cr. The next 7 largest IPOs suffered problems post IPO, but we believe This Time It’s Different, and it will succeed 2) HMI’s strong Indian presence and product excellence can help command a valuation superior to Maruti Suzuki 3) The success of recent IPOs suggests that the large size of this IPO is not an issue 4) The IPO will be Hyundai’s first stock market listing outside South Korea. It’s an opportunity.

Risks: 1) Increase in competitive intensity 2) GoI regulatory changes including taxes, pollution, etc. 3) raw material price inflation 4) any manufacturing or factory disruptions 5) sector or economic downturn 6) increase in royalty to Hyundai Motor Company, South Korea, and related party transaction pricing.

Opinion: Buy with a 2 year perspective

See report in PDF format

JainMatrix Investments_HMI IPO_Oct_2024Download

Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • Punit Jain discloses that he has no shareholding in HMI, or any group company as on date of report. In addition, JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI) and its promoters/ employees have no direct or financial interest in these companies, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report. But Punit Jain is the owner of a Hyundai i10 bought in 2013. And in line with his recommendation, he may apply in the IPO.
  • This document has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JMI. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
  • Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor.
  •  JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logos / brand name –

Bajaj Housing Finance IPO – Take This Loan

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  • Date 08th Sept 2024
  • IPO Opens Sep 9th-11th, at ₹ 66-70 /share
  • IPO of ₹ 6,560 cr., Large Cap with ₹ 58,300 cr. Mkt cap
  • Sector – Housing Finance
  • Valuations: P/E – 33.7 , P/B 3.83 times post IPO
  • Opinion: It is a BUY. Investors can SUBSCRIBE for the Long term

Summary:

  • Bajaj Finance Ltd. has transferred its mortgage loans business to BHFL. Growth in Home loans AUM has been excellent over 3 years at 42% CAGR. As the #2 largest HFC NBFC, BHFL looks set to grow and expand this market with competitive and innovative offerings. The BHFL vision is to build a reputation in mortgages on par with HDFC group. Its systems look excellent as its loans have the lowest GNPA & NNPA in this sector. It’s adopted the digital path with mobile applications, website and loan processing apps, which should drive new business. The IPO valuations look reasonable adjusted for growth, quality and top notch Bajaj Group backing, as the P/B of BHFL is 3.8 times versus Bajaj Finance-5.6. The leadership & brand of Bajaj Finance should rub off on BHFL.
  • Risks: 1) Regulatory risk and control of RBI 2) Economic & cyclical risk – we can expect a Real Estate slowdown in 4-6 years 3) mortgage loan competition from banks, NBFCs & fintechs 4) Deterioration of asset quality 5) interest rate sensitive sector 6) Some overlap in business with BajFin.
  • Opinion: The BHFL IPO is a BUY, and Investors can SUBSCRIBE for Long term.
  • Disclosure: JMI and Punit Jain have analyzed and tracked Bajaj Finance since Feb 2012, see reports Bajaj Finance, Automatic Growth and Bajaj Finance – a Firm you can Bank on and NBFC Sector

Here is a note on Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd – BHFL.

IPO highlights

  • The IPO opens from 9-11th Sep’24 in a Price Band of ₹ 66-70 per share.
  • The IPO is a Fresh Issue of ₹ 3,560 cr. and ₹ 3,000 cr. of Offer for Sale totalling ₹ 6,560 cr.
  • The main reasons and objects of the IPO are:  
    • RBI identified BHFL as an “upper layer” NBFC, and mandated it to list by Sep’25. It is early in this.
    • BajFin will use the IPO to boost BHFL’s capital base, enabling it to fund expansion of lending operations and capitalize on future growth opportunities in the housing finance sector.
    • BajFin too in the OFS will raise funds that will help in future growth.
  • The lot size is 214 shares and Face Value is ₹ 10 per share.
  • The IPO share quotas are QIBs: Non-Institutional Investors: Retail is 50:35:15%. In addition, BHFL has reserved shares worth ₹ 200 cr. for eligible employees, and shares worth ₹ 500 cr. for shareholders of BajFin and Bajaj Finserv. (The Record Date was 30 Aug’24.)
  • The unofficial/grey market premium of BHFL is ₹ 50/share over the IPO price. This is a positive.
  • The IPO allotment is likely to be finalized on 12th Sep., refunds will be on 13th Sep., and also crediting of shares to eligible allottees. BHFL shares will be listed on BSE and NSE, on 16th Sep.

Download Full Report

JainMatrix Investments_Bajaj Housing Finance IPO_08thSept2024Download

Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • JMI and Punit Jain have analyzed and tracked Bajaj Finance since Feb 2012, see reports Bajaj Finance, Automatic Growth and Bajaj Finance – a Firm you can Bank on and NBFC Sector
  • Punit Jain discloses that he has shareholding in Bajaj Finance since April 2003 (<1% stake). Other than this, he has no financial interest or transactions with Bajaj Finance, or any group company. In addition, JMI and its promoters/ employees have no direct or financial interest in these companies, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report. Punit Jain intends to apply in this IPO in line with this research note opinion.
  • This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor. JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logo/brand name –

JainMatrix Satellite Stocks Report Aug 2024

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26th Aug 2024

Subscribers and Investors,

JainMatrix Investments, a Research Analyst firm, is pleased to present its latest update of our Satellite Stocks Basket. Key points are

  • Introduction: It’s over 3 years since we introduced the Satellite stocks basket
  • This update report is dated 25th Aug, and the report covers 10 stocks
  • These firms are a mix of small, mid and large-cap firms
  • The objective of this basket is to look at shorter-term, high-potential ideas that must outperform the Mid and Small-cap indices by 2-3% per year
  • The Satellite stocks have performed excellently over the years
  • Recommendation Changes:
    • In our last report, we had 7 BUYs and 2 HOLDs
    • In this, we introduce a new BUY, and downgrade a HOLD and a BUY, to SELL
    • So we now have 7 BUYs and 1 HOLD as the final stocks recommendations
    • These 7 BUYs represent 4 high potential sectors, and are high performers within these sectors
  • Investing Trends: The trends we notice and capture in our report are:
    • Investor Optimism even at all time highs on Indices
    • More domestic focus rather than exports
    • Key themes are Consumption, Automobiles and Infrastructure
    • Several sectors are witnessing a cyclical upswing that should be sustained for several years.
  • Based on our research, this Satellite stocks report includes 1-2 page notes on all these stocks and 2-year Target Prices for May 2026.
  • Current subscribers may note the changes recommended.
  • Investors new to our service may sign up using PRICING AND PAYMENT OPTIONS link, to grow their Direct Equity portfolios.

Disclaimers

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor. JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logo/brand names are –

Ola Electric IPO – Profitability in 2 years

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  • Dated 04th Aug.
  • IPO is open from 2-6th Aug, at ₹ 72-76 /share
  • The IPO offering is large, at ₹ 6,150 cr.
  • Mid-Cap firm with Mkt cap ₹ 33,500 cr.
  • Sector: Automobile, EV, 2W
  • Opinion: High-risk takers can buy with a 2-year perspective

Summary

  • Ola Electric is a startup by serial entrepreneur Bhavish Agarwal for Electric two Wheelers. With a good brand drawn from Ola Cabs, Ola Electric has created the products, factories and sales network, and grabbed a 35% market share in India in E2W. Revenue grew 88% in FY24, indicating that Ola may have hit the ‘growth inflexion point’ in the hockey stick formation. The organization and structure set-up looks good to handle the possible growth. The overall 2W industry size and growth offer a massive opportunity for disruption. The products are beneficial to reduce pollution from fossil fuels and are aligned with electrification & renewables initiatives. Govt. of India policies are helpful with Ola using FAME and PLI incentives. E4W adoption in China is a good early indicator of possible E2W adoption in India. Our analysis indicates Ola can hit profitability by FY26, in two years.
  • Risks: 1) Typical startup risks of small possibility of success of massive disruption and ambitious goals; Typical IPO risks of undiscovered firm 2) currently cash-burning business 3) Dependence on China for RM – is being overcome through R&D and new mfg. facilities 4) Competition – Entry of new startup players and E2W plans by current ICE players 5) support drying up from GoI policies as industry accelerates 6) Volatility in RM prices
  • Opinion: High-risk takers can buy with a 2-year perspective

Here is a note on Ola Electric Mobility Ltd (OLA).

IPO highlights

  • IPO application dates: 2nd – 6th Aug’24, with Price Band: range of ₹72 – 76 per share, of FV: ₹10.
  • IPO Size is of ₹ 6,150 cr. – Offer for Sale 8.49 cr. shares (₹ 645 cr.) and Fresh Issue 72.3 cr. (₹ 5,500 cr.)
  • Lot Size: Investors can bid for a minimum of 195 shares and in multiples of this.
  • The promoter is serial entrepreneur Bhavish Aggarwal who owns 36.94%.
  • The main objectives of the IPO Issue  are
    • From the Fresh Issue, Capex is to be incurred for expansion of capacity of its cell mfg. plant from 5 GWh to 6.4 GWh, classified as phase 2 of expansion plan, reduction of debt; Investment into R&D and product development; Expenditure for organic growth initiatives, and General corporate purposes.
    • From OFS, the Promoters and some of the prior investors get a chance to exit.
  • The IPO share quotas are QIBs: NIIs: Retail is 75:15:10. (Qualified, Non-Institutional Investors)
  • The unofficial/ grey market premium of Ola is ₹ 9/share over IPO price. This is a positive.
  • The IPO allotment is likely to be finalized on Aug 7th, refunds will be on Aug 8th, and also crediting of shares to eligible allottees. Ola Electric shares will list on BSE and NSE, on Aug 9th.

See report in PDF format

JainMatrix Investments_OLA IPO_Aug_2024Download

Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • All assumptions are mentioned in main body of report along with Fig 7 Financial Projections.
  • Punit Jain discloses that he has no shareholding in Ola Electric Mobility, or any group company. He was not involved in the IPO preparation. In addition, JMI and its promoters/ employees have no direct or financial interest in these companies, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report.
  • This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor. JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logo/brand name –