JainMatrix announcement

As an Indian investor, you need to safeguard your portfolio and investment expenses. You should only engage with certified and approved advisers, mutual funds, research analysts and market intermediaries.

One initiative by SEBI is the creation of @valid UPI IDs to help investors identify genuine and approved parties, and make payments to them through proper channels.

JainMatrix Investments is a SEBI registered Research Analyst, and it announces that it has got its @valid UPI ID, this may be used to make all payments to us in terms of fees.

It is jainmatrix.ra@valididfc

See public news article regarding this

SEBI mandates exclusive ‘@valid’ UPI handles – MSN.com

SEBI Check tool to verify handles – SEBI website

Buy a JainMatrix subscription, for your Direct Equity investing, see PRICING AND PAYMENT OPTIONS

Warm regards, and safe investing

Punit Jain

Tata Capital IPO – Emerging Player

  • IPO is open from 06-08th Oct, at ₹ 310-326/share
  • Large Cap. of mkt cap ₹ 1,38,000 cr.
  • Sector: NBFC – Shadow Bank
  • The IPO is to raise ₹ 15,500 cr.
  • It will be the #4 largest IPO of the Indian markets, after Hyundai India, LIC and Paytm
  • Opinion: BUY with a 2-year perspective

In this note, we look closely at Tata Capital Ltd (TCL) which is opening for its IPO this week.

IPO Details

  • To raise ₹ 15,500 cr. – Fresh Issue, 21 cr. shares (₹ 6,846 cr.) and Offer for Sale, 26.58 cr. (₹ 8,665 cr.)
  • IPO Applicants can bid for a minimum of one lot of 46 shares, and in multiples of this.
  • Reasons and Objects of the Issue: 1) TCL was classified as an Upper Layer NBFC by RBI. It was required to IPO by Sept’25 as per these regulations 2) Tata Sons, the promoter of TCL will sell part of their stake in the Offer for Sale 3) TCL will utilize the proceeds from the Fresh Issue to augment their Tier – I capital base, to meet requirements of onward lending, and growth of the business 4) a portion of the proceeds from the Fresh Issue will be used towards meeting Offer Expenses.
  • The IPO share quotas will be QIBs: NIIs: Retail is 50:15:35. (Qualified and Non-Institutional Investors)
  • The unofficial/ grey market premium of TCL is ₹ 13/share today thus about 4% over the IPO price.
  • IPO shares allotment is by Thu, Oct 9th, and Listing Date is Mon, Oct 13, 2025.

Tata Capital Introduction

  • TCL is the flagship financial services firm of the Tata Group, a subsidiary of Tata Sons Pvt. Ltd., and is a NBFC. RBI classified it as a Upper Layer – Non-deposit taking NBFC – ICC Investment and Credit Company.
  • TCL operates across areas of business like: Commercial Finance, Consumer Loans, Wealth Services & distribution, and marketing of Tata Cards. It provides this to retail, corporate and institutional customers.
  • It 3 key subsidiaries are Tata Capital Housing Finance Ltd., Tata Securities Ltd. and Tata Capital Pte. Ltd.
  • Tata Capital Pte. incorporated in Singapore, operates fund management and proprietary investments business, directly and through its eight subsidiaries, including Tata Capital Advisors Pte. Ltd.
  • TCL is being put together as the Finance & Capital flagship of the Tata group. Tata Motors Finance Ltd., formerly part of Tata Motors, is merging with TCL. This was sanctioned by the National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai by an order in May’25. TCL’s 3 key subsidiaries also have JVs, subsidiaries and partners. This complex organization may merge and simplify over a few years.
  • Thus a lot of opportunities exist for TCL to grow its loans and product sales, aligning with Tata group companies and their customers in India.
  • Management – Saurabh Agrawal Ch’man (Non-ED), Rajiv Sabharwal MD & CEO and Rakesh Bhatia CFO.

Comparison of Financial Parameters  

We analyse the key ratios and financial data for TCL with 2 peers. See table and analyses below.

Fig 1 Benchmarking                         Annual data is for FY25/ TCL data is as per RHP

  • By assets, BFL is the largest of the three, next is TCL and smallest is LTF. Valuation wise, BFL is most expensive and LTF the cheapest. TCL is between the two. The pricing appears aggressive.
  • TCL leads on 3-year Sales growth, while profit growth is highest for LTF. EBITDA margins are highest for TCL but it is low on Profit margins, while BFL is best here. On gross and net NPA, BFL leads. TCL is low on Net NPA. Cost of Funds is higher for TCL. It leads on ROCE but BFL leads on ROE. TCL is weak on Capital Adequacy.

It will take 1-2 years for ongoing mergers to be complete at TCL and key ratios in Fig 1 to stabilize, while BFL and LTF are established well set firms with clear strategies.

Industry Notes

  • Recently RBI has released a circular regarding 15 NBFCs in Upper Layer classification under Scale Based Regulations. NBFCs have witnessed significant growth in size and interconnectedness in recent years.
  • An RBI UL NBFC is a systemically important firm identified by the RBI for higher regulatory scrutiny.
  • As per a CRISIL Report, TCL is the third largest diversified NBFC in India. These are in order of loan book
    • 1) Bajaj Finance 2) Shriram Finance 3) Tata Capital 4) Cholamandalam Investment
    • 5) Aditya Birla Capital 6) HDB Financial 7) L&T Finance 8) Sundaram Finance
  • HDFC Ltd which was the largest NBFC, a Housing Finance firm, merged with HDFC Bank last year. Conversely group company HDB Financial was listed this year. Several groups are slowly consolidating their financial firms under the Bank umbrella, such as ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and IDFC First Bank.

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

  • As the #3 diversified NBFC in India today TCL already has a good size and diversified loan book.
  • The Tata brand stands for high ethics, sustainable operations and of late focus and aggressive growth.
  • The NBFC structure provides the flexibility for fast growth, partnerships and JVs for TCL.

Weaknesses

  • The other financial services firms of Tata group are Tata Asset Management, Tata MF, Tata AIG, Tata AIA Life and Tata Invest. Corp. are subsidiaries of Tata Sons, they may not become part of TCL.
  • TCL is a complex group with an ongoing merger and reorganization. It may take some time to stabilize.
  • As a non-deposit taking NBFC, TCL will face a higher cost of funds raised as wholesale deposits.
  • For several years, the Tata group struggled to set up the Finance arms, its only taken shape recently.

Opportunities

  • The Tata Group is a diversified conglomerate, with 29 listed and 100s of group companies. There exists opportunity for TCL to align with these firms and their customers to provide loans and financial services.
  • Wealth management and new categories such as Gold loans hold potential. From just Tata Motors loans, TCL will expand to provide loans across OEMs, and this can be a large business.

Threats

  • Competition – Bajaj Finance as the leader in the NBFCs has shown high growth rates and return ratios.
  • Other firms in the industry have strong sector focus such as Commercial Vehicles or housing loans.
  • Banks are free to compete in all sectors as NBFCs and also have lower cost of funds.

Conclusion

  • TCL has priced its IPO aggressively. While pricing is close to BFL on P/B, it is a far smaller firm by loan book. Also TCL is taking shape now, and it will be 1-2 years by the time its mergers and new divisions are complete, and performance ratios stabilize.
  • Opinion: BUY with a 2-year perspective

Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • Punit Jain discloses that he has no shareholding in TCL. He does have shareholding in BFL (<1%) since 2003. Similarly, JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI) and its promoters/ employees have no shareholding in TCL, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report. This document has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JMI. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an RIA – Registered Investment Advisor.
  • JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logos / brand name –

Belrise Industries IPO – Strong as the Chassis

  • Date: 21st May 2025
  • IPO is open from 21-23rd May, at ₹ 85-90/share
  • Mid Cap. of mkt cap ₹ 8,000 cr.
  • PE is 27 times.
  • Sector: Auto Components
  • The IPO to raise ₹ 2,150 cr.
  • Opinion: BUY with a 2-3 year perspective
  • See here, an automobile Chassis –

IPO highlights

  • IPO application dates: 21 – 23rd May’25, with Price Band of ₹ 85 – 90 per share, FV: ₹ 5. Lot Size: Investors can bid for a minimum of one lot of 166 shares, and in multiples of this.
  • IPO Size is ₹ 2,150 cr.; it’s entirely a Fresh Issue of shares, no OFS.
  • This IPO will expand the Equity Share Capital of Belrise as it is a Fresh Issue of shares.
  • Objects of Issue: 1) ₹ 1,618 cr. will be used repay or prepay certain borrowings, reducing its debt burden, currently D/E is 1.01 2) A portion will fund capital expenditure to expand and modernize its mfg. facilities, especially for EV and aluminium components. Some funds will support working capital needs, while 3) the rest will go toward general corporate purposes.
  • The IPO share quotas of QIBs: NIIs: Retail is 50:15:35. (Qualified, Non-Institutional Investors)
  • The unofficial/ grey market premium of HMI is ₹ 18/share over the IPO price.
  • IPO allotment is by 26th May, crediting shares/ refunds by 27th, and listing on BSE / NSE on May 28th.

Summary

  • Why Belrise Industries: The Indian auto sector is growing impressively and India is #1 in 2-wheelers and a leader in small cars globally. Belrise is one of India’s largest auto component suppliers, with a diversified portfolio spanning sheet metal, chassis, suspension, plastic/polymer, and EV systems. It has a 24% market share in metal parts of Indian 2W segment, and is #3 here. It caters to leading OEMs such as Bajaj, Hero, TVS, and Tata Motors. With 15 mfg. plants in India, it benefits from proximity to OEMs. Belrise has pivoted towards EV parts like battery packs and electric chassis assemblies, this positions it well for the next phase of auto growth in India and abroad.
  • Why now in IPO: The IPO is a fresh issue, and will help the firm repay debt and fund capex. At current valuations with PE of 27 times, it is reasonably priced among auto component peers, with significant upside potential as volumes scale in India and globally. Belrise is now focusing on CVs and 4W which provide higher volumes and revenue per vehicle.
  • Risks: 1) High dependence on a few OEM customers 2) RM price fluctuations can impact margins 3) Execution risk in scaling up EV and aluminium divisions 4) Supply chain disruptions or cost inflation 5) sector or economic downturn 6) Shift in OEM product design preferences 7) Regulatory risks around import-export policies and tariffs. 8) Location risk – 7/15 of plants are in Mah.
  • Opinion: BUY with a 2-3 year perspective.

Entire Report in PDF format:

Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • Punit Jain discloses that he has no shareholding in Belrise Industries Ltd., or any group company. In addition, JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI) and its promoters/ employees have no direct or financial interest in this company, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report. We may apply for the IPO through a stock broker in line with our recommendations.
  • This document has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JMI. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
  • Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor.
  •  JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logos / brand name –

IRCTC Ltd – Navaratna Back on the Rails – BUY  

  • Date: 10th Apr 2025
  • Large Cap with mkt cap ₹ 57,000 crores.
  • CMP: ₹ 715, current PE: 47 Times
  • Advice: Buy with a price Target of ₹ 1,179
  • Why IRCTC: This next gen Railways PSU has monopolies in internet rail ticketing, food and catering and Rail Neer. High potential segments include Tourism, travel packages and running luxury trains. Indian Railways is making high investments in train networks for speed, safety, passenger amenities and eco-friendly operations. These will accelerate trains as a preferred travel mode. IRCTC has a key passenger facing role in this.
  • Why Now: IRCTC has recovered post Covid and has excellent FY23-25 results. At a PE of 47 times, it is below historical average PE of 55 times, so undervalued. It has also invested on new capacities, new initiatives and better services. Across India we see a travel and tourism rebound at airports, tourist destinations and train stations. Its internet ticketing business is growing share of overall rail tickets, adding to convenience and access. PSUs are safer investments, in a volatile market.
  • Risks: 1) PSUs are slower to respond to market opportunities 2) Frequent transaction failures and website crashes, especially in Tatkal hours 3) It has vast user data and centralized systems, so is exposed to cyber-attacks, which can be damaging 4) Regulator is GoI and regulatory changes is an issue like loss of monopoly 5) Private online travel firms are raising competition 6) Absolute valuations of PE and EV/EBITDA ratios are high, even after a large recent fall.
  • Opinion: Buy with a price Target of ₹ 1,179 by May’27, a 65% upside.

Description and Profile

  • IRCTC (Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation) is a listed subsidiary of Indian Railways (IR). Incorporated in 1999, IRCTC has its HO in New Delhi. It operates in 4 business segments of Catering, Internet Ticketing, Tourism, and packaged drinking water under the name “Rail Neer”.
  • It reported total revenue of ₹ 4,270 cr. and PAT of ₹ 1,111 cr. for FY24. For the last 8 years the Revenue, EBITDA and PAT grew at 17%, 23% and 27% CAGR. It has 2,726 employees.
  • IRCTC runs operations for Indian Railways (IR) in catering services, online railway tickets and packaged water. It has streamlined the ticket booking process with its Online Ticket Booking system, called the advanced Next Generation E-Ticketing (NGeT) System.
  • IRCTC has established strategic partnerships with leading online travel agencies, including MakeMyTrip, RailYatri, and Goibibo to enhance accessibility and convenience in online tickets. It has 5 zonal offices and 10 regional offices; 1 internet ticketing office, 19 Rail Neer Plants, 11 base kitchens and 1 tourism office across India.
  • Revenue from Catering services is 46%, Internet ticketing-30, Tourism-16; Rail Neer 8%.
  • Management team – Sanjay Kumar Jain (CMD), Neeraj Sharma (Govt. Director), Rabindra Nath Mishra (Dir- Finance) and Dr. Lokiah RaviKumar (Dir – Catering & Services). Shareholding of IRCTC is Promoter (President of India) 62.4%, FIIs 7.45%, DIIs 13.72%, Public 15.33, Others 1.1%.

The rest and entire equity research report is available as a PDF, please feel free to download. More such quality reports are available with the JainMatrix Investments paid subscription.

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Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • Punit Jain discloses that he has no shareholding in IRCTC as on date of report. In addition, he has no financial interest or transactions with IRCTC, except occasional train travel bookings. In addition, JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI) and its promoters/ employees have no direct or financial interest in IRCTC, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report.
  • This document has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor. Registration granted by SEBI to JMI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logo/brand names –

Hyundai Motor India IPO – This Time It’s Different

  • Date: 15th Oct
  • IPO is open from 15-17th Oct, at ₹ 1,865-1,960/share
  • The IPO is the largest from India, to raise ₹ 27,870 cr.
  • Large Cap. with mkt cap ₹ 1,59,000 cr.
  • Sector: Automobile
  • Opinion: Buy with a 2-year perspective

Summary

Why Hyundai India: As the #2 company in Indian passenger vehicles, Hyundai Motor India has been popular for its attractive cars. Combining good riding with fair prices, it’s products have held up well against Maruti’s value offerings and the Indian, European and Japanese automobile firms. Capacity utilization is close to 100%, so the new plant in Pune by next year will be useful. The financials and balance sheet look healthy to support needed investments. HMI’s auto products have evolved in sync with Indian consumers, and we expect this to continue.

Why now in IPO: 1) This will be India’s largest IPO by value, aiming to raise about ₹ 28,000 cr. The next 7 largest IPOs suffered problems post IPO, but we believe This Time It’s Different, and it will succeed 2) HMI’s strong Indian presence and product excellence can help command a valuation superior to Maruti Suzuki 3) The success of recent IPOs suggests that the large size of this IPO is not an issue 4) The IPO will be Hyundai’s first stock market listing outside South Korea. It’s an opportunity.

Risks: 1) Increase in competitive intensity 2) GoI regulatory changes including taxes, pollution, etc. 3) raw material price inflation 4) any manufacturing or factory disruptions 5) sector or economic downturn 6) increase in royalty to Hyundai Motor Company, South Korea, and related party transaction pricing.

Opinion: Buy with a 2 year perspective

See report in PDF format

Disclaimers and Disclosures

  • Punit Jain discloses that he has no shareholding in HMI, or any group company as on date of report. In addition, JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JMI) and its promoters/ employees have no direct or financial interest in these companies, and no known material conflict of interest as on date of publication of this report. But Punit Jain is the owner of a Hyundai i10 bought in 2013. And in line with his recommendation, he may apply in the IPO.
  • This document has been prepared by JMI, and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JMI. This report should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JMI has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither JMI nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
  • Investment in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from a RIA Registered Investment Advisor.
  •  JMI has been an equity investment adviser commercially since Nov 2012, and a SEBI certified and registered since 2016, under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations. Registration granted by SEBI, and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the Research Analyst or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
  • Any questions should be directed to punit.jain@jainmatrix.com. Name of the RA as registered with SEBI – Punit Jain, SEBI Registration No. INH200002747. Logos / brand name –

Just received my updated SEBI-RA certificate

I’m happy to announce that I have received my renewed Research Analyst certificate from SEBI. The first one was for 5 years, 2016-2021, and this one is open, with perpetual validity.

Thank you, current and past subscribers, and all followers of my website, for helping me over the years.

Sharing this, some sections are masked. But please reach out to me if you have any questions !!

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Regards, Punit Jain

NIFTY VIX and NIFTY 50: Market Sentiment Post Elections

The Indian General elections are done with, and we have the observations of the last month –

NIFTY VIX – is a ‘Volatility Index’, first introduced by the NSE in 2008. It is an Index representing expected annual volatility in Nifty50 over the next 30 days. It being a leading indicator simply reflects investors’ sentiment about the market.

NIFTY 50 – The NIFTY 50 is a benchmark Indian stock market index representing the weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.

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