How robust is India’s recovery; Covid peak in Sept; Pandemic helps Digital payment

5th Oct 2020

At JainMatrix Investments, we want to think positive, and encourage India to get back on Track, so we share articles and track stories in this space:

  1. How robust is India’s recovery? – IndianExpress – 5th Oct 
  2. Covid may have peaked in September – ToI – 5th Oct 
  3. Digital payments: Pandemic does what demon couldn’t – ET – 01st Oct
  4. Healthcare Reforms – National Med. Commission started – (ET) – 25th Sept 
  5. Export show signs of a revival – (LiveMint) – 25th Sept 
  6. Economic recovery sustains momentum through first week of Sept – (ET) – 10th Sept 
  7. Rice, sugar push up Q1 farm exports by 23% – (ET) – 10th Sept 
  8. IPL set to kick-start consumption cycle – (LiveMint) – 30th July 
  9. Unlock 4: Metros to start, no lockdowns outside containment zones – (LiveMint) 30July 
  10. Mfg. policies of govt to help firms shift base to India: ICEA – (BS) – 26th Aug 
  11. RBI at end of rate cut cycle, govt must play role for revival: Economists – (BS) – 26th Aug 
  12. Railway earnings, Power generation: weekly indicators about economy – (BS) 18th Aug 
  13. Import embargo plan for 101 defense items to boost indigenisation(FE) 18th Aug 
  14. Must improve ease of business to be a mfg. hub: Industry captains– (ET) – 07th Aug 
  15. Here’s what Indians have been spending on during the pandemic – (ET) – 07th Aug 
  16. Redesign, rethink whole economy for success in post-Covid world – (ToI) – 05th Aug 
  17. Joblessness at pre-covid level as India unlocks more – (LiveMint) – 05th Aug
  18. Expect V-shaped recovery over next few months: Ridham Desai – (ET) – 30th July    
  19. A major change is shift in format: Panel on education – (ET) – 30th July 
  20. Hiring optimism grows as demand gathers pace – (LiveMint) – 20th July 
  21. IT may see surge in offshoring biz – (LiveMint) – 20th July
  22. The current wave of rail reforms is actually “historic” – (ET) – 17th July 
  23. Mapping India’s Post-Covid Capex Recovery – (BQ) – 17th July 
  24. View: Never a better time than now to build for India – (ET) – 13th July 
  25. India at the cusp of a huge explosion of demand: Panasonic CEO – (ET) – 13th July
  26. Record surge in sales of vacuum cleaners, dishwashers, DIY products – (ET) – 07th July 
  27. Labour shortage, factories go the extra mile to woo migrant workers – (ET) – 07th July 
  28. PMI, GST mop-up point to a pickup in economic activity – (LiveMint) – 02nd July 
  29. India Inc’s big bet on Bharat saving the day – (LiveMint) – 02nd July
  30. Green shoots in Bharat lead country’s economic revival – (LiveMint) – 30th June 
  31. Opinion | The onus is on us to conquer fear – (LiveMint) – 30th June 
  32. Not two years, 200 projects finished during lockdown: Railways – (ToI) – 29th June 
  33. Bankers in India are more productive working from home – (LiveMint) – 29th June 
  34. Global equity markets are likely to continue their up move – (BizStd) – 27th June
  35. Migration is reversing: Trains from UP, Bihar run full – (ToI) – 27th June 
  36. Indicators of economic recovery in India – (EcoTimes) – 24th June
  37. Get India fully back to business, says India Inc – (EcoTimes) – 24th June
  38. Post-crisis, increase integration with global economy – (EcoTimes) – 20th June
  39. Kharif planting rises 40% on strong monsoon start – (EcoTimes) – 20th June 
  40. Maruti Suzuki’s model can make India a global mobile mfg hub – (EcoTimes) – 18th June 
  41. Indian economy to recover very fast: HDFC Bank CEO – (EcoTimes) – 18th June 
  42. A COVID-19 workplace readiness tool for organisations – (IISC) – 17th June 
  43. It is time to be a little positive on financial space – (EcoTimes) – 17th June 
  44. Exports bounce back to last year’s levels in June – (EcoTimes) – 16th June 
  45. Unemployment rate declines sharply as India exits lockdown – (Livemint) – 16th June 
  46. Local trains, Mumbai’s lifeline, resumes services – (Livemint) – 15th June 
  47. Construction work restarts at over 100 projects in NCR – (EcoTimes) – 15th June 
  48. Govt urges use of bicycles, EVs to mitigate risks – (EcoTimes) – 13th June 
  49. Digital is the Key to Unlock this Disruption’ – (EcoTimes) – 13th June 
  50. ‘Put the money in Indian stocks, forget till 2025’ – (EcoTimes) – 12th June 
  51. Loans are getting cheaper, HDFC cuts lending rate – (EcoTimes) – 12th June
  52. View: Replacing China imports possible, even in EVs – (EcoTimes) – 11th June 
  53. ‘Time for Bold Investments, not conservative decisions’ – (Livemint) – 11th June 
  54. After steep falls, June exports show signs of improvement (EcoTimes) – 10th June 
  55. Partial lockdown lift gives work to 21 million; not salaried class (EcoTimes) – 10th June 
  56. Covid-19 is no plague or cancer; fear psychosis unnecessary (EcoTimes) – 09th June
  57. Import-intensive spending likely to feel the pinch – (EcoTimes) – 09th June 
  58. Getting growth back on track is non-negotiable: Uday Kotak (EcoTimes) – 08th June 
  59. Post Covid Opportunities – Global Work Force (Nasdaily) – 8th June
  60. Impetus To Realty Demand, But More Needs To Be Done (NDTV) – 06th June
  61. Collections improving, demand picking up in rural India (EcoTimes) – 06th June
  62. View: How to get Make-in-India to work this time (EcoTimes) – 05th June 
  63. Effects of Unlock 1.0 as new guidelines come into play – (IndianExpress) – 05th June 
  64. Cabinet approves amendment of Essential Commodities Act (Livemint) – 04th June 
  65. Goods movement pickup in May signals economic revival (Livemint) – 04th June 
  66. PM’s First Major Address On Economy After Unlock 1.0 (ndtv.com) – 03rd June 
  67. Five Indian states are leading in the recovery from lockdown – (EcoTimes) – 03rd June
  68. India’s 3-phase ‘Unlock’ Plan starts at last (ToI) – 1st June 
  69. Supply to improve post-unlock 1.0; demand pickup may be slower (Livemint) – 1st June 
  70. Over 1.65 lakh people traveled in 2,198 flights since Monday: Puri (Livemint) – 30th May 
  71. The global supply chain is being reconfigured, India can gain (EcoTimes) – 30th May
  72. Nearly 65,000 cured from COVID-19 in India, 42% recovery rate (Livemint) – 29th May 
  73. An India lockdown survey: The good, bad and the ugly (Eco Times) – 29th May 
  74. How is India doing against COVID19 in 3 graphs – 28th May
  75. Covid-19 proves the importance of telecom in India (Eco Times) – 28th May
  76. India runs on Rails: MORE TRAINS BASED ON DEMAND (Fin Expr.) – 27 May
  77. MY TAXI HAS VEHICLES WITH PPE KITS, CURTAINS (Eco Times) – 27th May
  78. COVID-19 Is Fast-Tracking Digital Transformation – 26th May 
  79. HOW DHARAVI IS TACKLING THE COVID INFECTION RATE – 26th May 
  80. AFTER 2 MONTHS, FLIGHTS ARE BACK – 25th May
  81. HOW INDIA INC. GOES BACK TO WORK, LEADERSPEAK (Eco Times) – 25th May
  82. A THIRD OF NSE MFG FIRMS BACK AT WORK (Eco Times) : 23rd May
  83. MAHINDRA FACTORY – COVID CARE READY – 23rd May
  84. We actually wrote about the need for a lockdown in Mar 2020 – CALL IN THE INDIAN ARMY TO HANDLE THIS EMERGENCY – 20th March

We have been tracking this infection since March when it came to India and we had to declare the lockdown.

Today, 2 months on, we are at a different phase in the economy. The first phase of lockdown and defense against this virus has been by and large successful in India. We did not have a massive early spike in cases. We did far better than Spain and Italy and USA  in the early phase. We have been able to set up Covid hospitals, track infection cases, close our borders and airports and more or less, slow initial infections. The statistics today is that we have 125,000 infections and 3,720 deaths from the infection. This is a very very small number for India’s population.

After the very strict lockdown 1.0, we have had lockdown 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and now Unlock 1.0. The fact of the matter is that the economy has suffered immensely. Crores of people lost their jobs due to the lockdown. Many had to migrate back to their native places due to loss of wages. The economic losses are much more severe from the economic slowdown. Now that the infection is in control, we need to reverse our losses and regain the momentum. Even as we take sufficient precautions.

Both demand and supply were frozen, and it will take a massive effort from each of us for the economy to regain momentum. Its now time to open up our economy and as far as possible, get back to normal. We have to understand that this virus will not go away, it is we who have to adjust to it. Even as we maintain social distancing, and wear masks, and wash hands regularly, the important thing now is to dive back into business and some semblance of normalcy.

Regards,

Punit Jain

DISCLAIMER

This document has been prepared by JainMatrix Investments Bangalore (JM), and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of JM. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, JM has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Punit Jain and JM has no ownership or known financial interests in any company mentioned in this note. Neither JM nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient’s particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an Investment Advisor. Punit Jain is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. JM has been publishing equity research reports since Nov 2012. Any questions should be directed to the director of JainMatrix Investments at punit.jain@jainmatrix.com.

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